Analysis of soda ash market

Today, the price of soda ash in China is rising steadily. As of now, the price of light soda ash in Northwest China is 1,300 - 1,350 yuan/ton, and the price of heavy soda ash is 1,300 - 1,350 yuan/ton; the price of light soda ash in Northeast China is 1,700 - 1,850 yuan/ton, and the price of heavy soda ash is 1,750 - 1,850 yuan/ton. Soda plant equipment has been stable and small, and individual companies have been operating at a higher level; downstream procurement has remained in demand, the market wait-and-see mood has intensified, and transaction volume has performed generally; the price of new orders in some regions has increased slightly, and the soda ash market has generally been operating strongly.

Futures dynamics

According to Boduo data, the opening price of SA2501, the main contract for soda ash, on October 9, was 1503 yuan/ton, and finally closed at 1495 yuan/ton, an increase of-6.62% within the day. The intraday high was 1543 yuan/ton, the lowest was 1480 yuan/ton, and the total position was 1310238 lots, a month-on-month increase of 51687 lots.

Soda ash futures prices continued to be weak today, but absolute prices remained unchanged from yesterday's close. The logic of strong supply and weak demand for soda ash has a strong suppression on prices. However, after the current price falls, market profits have narrowed, and the hedging pressure on the industry has weakened. Overall, the current market is still guided by macro sentiment, and basically revolves around the trend of the stock index during the day. Although the current macro sentiment has declined due to the cooling guidance of high-level officials, it still cannot falsify the expectation of subsequent policies to increase expectations. In the short term, the market waits for this Saturday. How will the fiscal policy issues that have attracted much attention at the press conference evolve? Before that, market volatility may have been relatively limited.

market outlook

The operating rate of soda ash companies has remained stable and the market supply is sufficient; as downstream companies have successively completed stocking up, market sentiment has become cautious; it is expected that the soda ash market will be mainly stable, and prices will fluctuate within a narrow range.