Analysis of soda ash market

Today, the focus of transactions in the soda ash market in China has shifted upwards. As of now, the price of light soda ash in Northwest China is 1,250 - 1,350 yuan/ton, and the price of heavy soda ash is 1,250 - 1,350 yuan/ton; the price of light soda ash in Central China is 1,450 - 1,650 yuan/ton, and the price of heavy soda ash is 1,550 - 1,650 yuan/ton. Soda ash output has stabilized, and the market supply is sufficient; downstream purchases have remained in demand, and the pace of market transactions has been relatively stable; prices in some areas have been increased, ranging from 50 to 150 yuan/ton; after the holiday, companies mainly deliver orders in hand, and manufacturers continue to go to the warehouse., the soda ash market as a whole is running strongly.

Futures dynamics

According to Boduo data, the opening price of SA2501, the main contract for soda ash, on October 8, was 1750 yuan/ton, and finally closed at 1495 yuan/ton, an increase of-9.50% within the day. The intraday high was 1754 yuan/ton, the lowest was 1490 yuan/ton, and the total position was 1258547 lots, a month-on-month increase of +202169 lots.

Today, soda ash futures prices fell sharply after opening higher, and were almost close to the daily limit. The rebound of soda ash in the early stage was more driven by macro sentiments. However, the content of the press conference of the National Development and Reform Commission expected by the market today was slightly less than the high market expectations, and the regulatory level also issued news to control the entry of credit funds into the market to cool down the market. This led to the lack of new incremental policies in the early stage of the macro atmosphere and temporarily declined. In addition, the atmosphere for soda ash transactions during the holidays has shown a decline, the actual downstream undertaking is relatively limited, and the arbitrage behavior between the middle and upper reaches in the early stage has also created strong selling pressure on the market. Overall, the decline in macro sentiment after the holiday and the resonance of selling pressure on the industry side have led to a significant weakening of soda ash prices. However, it cannot be completely false at present that macro sentiment has subsided. Subsequent policy increases are still a high probability event. It is also necessary to pay attention to the recent A large number of hedging behaviors in the middle and upper reaches may cause spot liquidity risks after the subsequent macro sentiment resurfaces. In the short term, it is recommended to wait and see how macro logic evolves.

market outlook

The start-up of soda ash enterprises remains stable, and the market supply is still sufficient; downstream demand is stable, and enterprises purchase on demand. If demand does not improve significantly, the market will mainly wait and see; it is expected that the soda ash market will be mainly stable, and prices will fluctuate within a narrow range.