Recently, Citigroup stated that if the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and oil-producing countries participating in production cuts (OPEC+) do not expand production cuts, the average global crude oil price may fall to US$60/barrel in 2025. The main reasons for this are declining market demand and increased supply from non-OPEC oil-producing countries.

    Citi predicts that despite the possibility of a technical rebound, the market may not be able to maintain the US$70/barrel level unless OPEC+ announces an indefinite extension of current production cuts. Brent North Sea crude oil may fall to US$60 per barrel. In some cases, it may fall to the level of US$50/barrel.

    Citi expects geopolitical tensions to push oil prices higher, but prices have weakened every time they rebound since October. Citi pointed out that the current market recognizes that tensions do not necessarily lead to production cuts or transportation problems, and that rising prices are also an opportunity to sell. Given current market dynamics, Citi recommends selling when Brent crude in the North Sea approaches US$80 per barrel.

    Citi believes that following last week's decline in crude oil, prices may rebound to nearly US$80/barrel in the short term. But Citi expects demand to ease as the summer driving season ends. Source: Sinochem New Network