China Urea Price Index:

According to Feiluoduo data, the urea small particle price index on September 24 was 1896.64, down 17.45 from yesterday, 0.91 per cent from the previous month, and 26.43 per cent from the same period last year.

Urea futures market:

Today, the opening price of urea UR501 contract is 1755, the highest price is 1794, the lowest price is 1748, the settlement price is 1768, the closing price is 1788, the closing price is 38% higher than that of the previous trading day, and the month-on-month price is up 2.17%. The whole-day fluctuation range is 1748-1794, and the position in Shandong area has been reduced by 8065 positions today and 200359 positions have been held so far.

Urea futures prices rebounded sharply today, mainly due to the impact of various types of policy combinations released at the press conference of the State Information Office today, which led to the optimistic expectations of the overall financial market, and the short risk aversion sentiment strengthened. In the short term, there is no obvious change in urea fundamentals, the logic of strong supply and demand can not be broken, and the price is still suppressed, but there is a certain cost support under the current price, and the subsequent reserve demand is expected to remain, and the market is mainly waiting for driving for the time being. however, we need to pay attention to whether the spot market can be driven out of the positive feedback market ahead of time after the recent rise in urea plate affected by macro sentiment.

Spot market analysis:

Today, China UreaThe market continues to run weakly, in part.Urea enterprises in mainstream areas have a small number of orders shipped, quotations continue to be stable, one after anotherThere are price reduction orders expected, the current market needs lower prices to attract downstream purchases to follow up, short-term prices are still expected to decline.

Specifically, the price in Northeast China has been reduced to 1880-1920 yuan / ton. The price in East China has been reduced to 1780-1830 yuan / ton. The price of small and medium-sized particles in central China has been reduced to 1790-2020 yuan / ton, and the price of large particles has been stable at 1900-2020 yuan / ton. The price in North China has been reduced to 1700-1920 yuan / ton. The price in South China has been reduced to 1960-1990 yuan / ton. Prices in the northwest region are stable at 1930-1980 yuan / ton. The price in southwest China has been reduced to 1900-2200 yuan / ton.

Future forecast:

In terms of factories, the transaction of new orders in mainstream factories is general, some hold a small amount to be issued, the quotation fluctuates in a narrow range, the current external factory shipping pressure increases, the quotation is low and frequent, in order to absorb new orders, some factories begin to implement low-price acquisition policy for the downstream. In terms of the market, the transaction of new orders is general, the atmosphere is still cautious and weak, manufacturers are facing the pressure of receiving orders on National Day, operators are relatively cautious in follow-up, in the absence of effective positive factors, the market has entered the game stage one after another. On the supply side, there are fewer planned maintenance enterprises in the near future, and pre-maintenance enterprises are also gradually resuming production, and the daily production of urea continues to be maintained at a level of more than 190000 tons. In terms of demand, downstream rigid demand follows, sporadic replenishment is given priority to, the mentality of follow-up is relatively cautious, the demand for raw materials in compound fertilizer plants is weakened, and agricultural demand is also in a gap period, reserve demand follow-up is poor, the market is difficult to boost, the overall demand side follow-up is limited.

Generally speaking, the current urea market supply in China continues to increase, and there is a lack of effective favorable support in the market. near the National Day holiday, the factory continues to make profits in order to ensure sufficient orders during the holiday period, and it is expected that the urea market price before the festival will continue to be weak and volatile.