1 、Analysis of Chinese Egg Market

1.1. Analysis of egg market price

The price of eggs is weak this week, the replenishment enthusiasm of downstream dealers is not high, the end consumers follow up on demand, the market trading atmosphere is general, and each link has a strong wait-and-see mood. According to Cold chain Duoduo statistics, as of Thursday, the average price of red eggs was 4.90 yuan per jin, and the average price of pink eggs was 4.66 yuan per jin, with a price difference of 0.24 yuan per jin, up 0.11 yuan per jin from last Thursday. At present, the stock of laying hens is still larger than the theoretical output of eliminated hens, the enthusiasm of breeding units is strong, at the same time, the purchase quantity of slaughtering enterprises is less, and the supply of eggs remains adequate. The performance on the demand side is general, traders are more cautious in taking goods, the pace of market delivery slows down, the terminal follows up on demand, inventory pressure still exists in some areas, and operators have a strong wait-and-see mood.

Production area market:The average price of eggs in the main producing areas on Thursday was 4.87 yuan per jin, up 0.14 yuan per jin from last Thursday. Prices in the main production areas rose first and then fell this week. At present, goods in the production areas are generally purchased and sold, traders are mainly active in clearing inventory, and prices are strong at first and then weak. As the current stock of laying hens continues to rise slightly from the previous month, the supply of eggs is more adequate, and the supply of eggs in the producing areas remains loose.

Sales area market:The average price of eggs in the main selling area on Thursday was 4.78 yuan / jin, up 0.10 yuan / jin from last Thursday. During the week, the market price in the sales area first rose and then fell, the volume of cars arrived in each region was normal, the dealers took the goods cautiously, the market went out of goods in general, and the egg price in the sales area was strong at first and then weak.

1.2. Egg market price trend chart

1.3. Comparison of regional market prices of eggs in China this week

Table 1

2 、Analysis in the storage column of laying hens

2.1 Analysis of the number of columns

According to the statistics of Cold chain Duoduo, by the end of July 2024, the stock of laying hens in the country was about 1.249 billion, and most of the new laying hens opened in July were fattening hens around March 2024. March was the peak season in spring, and the price preference of Taoben, the psychology of keeping and selling in breeding units, and the number of new laying hens decreased month-on-month. The sales volume of chicken seedlings in March 2024 was 43.68 million, an increase of 2.73 million from the previous month, or 6.67%. Thus, it is estimated that the number of new production this month is still higher than the theoretical knockout, and the supply of eggs is still expected to increase.

2.2 Analysis of the amount of hurdles

The market of knockout chicken was shaken and adjusted this week, and the price of knockout chickens across the country was average during the week. At present, there are few sources of Amoy chickens in the production areas, breeding units take advantage of the opportunity to eliminate older chickens, slaughtering enterprises are generally enthusiastic in purchasing, more follow-up on demand, market transactions are limited, and farmers are still worried about the future market. It is expected that the price of eliminated chickens will be affected by egg prices next week and will be slightly adjusted in some areas.

3 、Egg demand side analysis

The performance of the demand side is general, the current market trading atmosphere is lukewarm, the replenishment enthusiasm of downstream traders is not high, the end consumers follow up on demand, and the inventory pressure of each link still exists. Affected by the high temperature of the weather, the storage and transportation of eggs is limited, and the market is more cautious to take and sell, and the circulation speed of the supply is general. In the later period, with the arrival of the Mid-Autumn Festival, operators are still bullish. On the whole, the pace of market shipments is general, and the performance of the terminal demand side is lukewarm.

3.1. Analysis of the amount of cars arriving in the sales area

According to cold chain statistics, 109 vehicles arrived in the Beijing market this week, with an average daily arrival of about 16 vehicles, a decrease of 1 vehicle, or 0.91%, compared with last week. During the week, the egg price fluctuation in the sales area is weak, the volume of cars arriving in Beijing is normal, the trading of all links is general, and the market is expected to operate steadily next week.

4. Forecast the future of eggs.

From the supply side, the current number of newly opened laying hens is still larger than the theoretical number of eliminated hens, the stock of laying hens is still expected to increase, the market demand for eliminated hens is general, slaughtering enterprises buy at a low price, and the willingness of breeding units to clean out chickens has increased. The supply of eggs is still sufficient, to sum up, it is expected that the supply side of the egg market will still be loose next week.

From the demand side, the current terminal consumer demand is general, the downstream dealers take goods more cautiously, each link is mainly active in clearing inventory, the market trading atmosphere is lukewarm, and the inventory pressure in some areas increases slightly. In the later stage, with the start of school and the advent of the Mid-Autumn Festival, operators still have a certain bullish mood. To sum up, it is expected that the demand side will show preference next week.

From the point of view of the market mentality, the egg price is high, the wait-and-see mood is strong, the shipping in the production area is more positive, the terminal replenishment is homeopathic purchase and sale, and the supply circulation speed is OK.

Overall, the egg market is expected to operate temporarily next week, the performance of red powder may be different, the adjustment range is about 0.10 yuan / jin, and the average price in the main producing areas is 4.80-4.90 yuan / jin.