Analysis of soda ash market

Today, some prices in China's soda ash market are still being lowered, ranging from 50 to 200 yuan/ton. As of now, the price of light soda ash in East China is between 1,650 and 2,000 yuan/ton, and the price of heavy soda ash is between 1,850 and 2,000 yuan/ton; the price of light soda ash in Northwest China is between 1,300 and 1,450 yuan/ton, and the price of heavy soda ash is between 1,300 and 1,500 yuan/ton; the operation of soda plants fluctuates slightly, but the overall start-up still remains high; The performance of downstream demand remains weak, procurement is cautious, and there is a strong sentiment towards soda ash price reduction; the focus of market transactions has stabilized and moved downward, maintaining a weak operation.

Futures dynamics

According to Boduo data, the opening price of SA2501, the main contract for soda ash, on August 21, was 1623 yuan/ton, and finally closed at 1645 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.07% within the day. The intraday high was 1646 yuan/ton, the lowest was 1608 yuan/ton, with a total position of 890397 lots, a month-on-month +20182 lots.

Soda ash futures prices rebounded sharply today, mainly driven by policy news and macro atmosphere, and mainly rebounded emotionally in the overall commodity market. At present, the fundamentals of soda ash have not improved significantly, but the proportion of expected transactions has increased after the main futures contract has moved to a distant month, making it more sensitive to good news. After a sharp decline in the previous period, there is a certain demand for a rebound in the market. In the short term, we need to observe the persistence of the rebound driven by this round of market sentiment and whether downstream parties can improve their purchasing willingness to boost the spot market atmosphere.

market outlook

Maintenance plans are still in place in the future, and production and start-up will be adjusted; however, downstream willingness to stock up is still not high, and the signing of new orders by soda ash companies is weak; as orders on hand in the early stage gradually decrease, prices are expected to continue to be weak and stable in the short term.