Analysis of soda ash market

Today, the domestic soda ash market continues to be weak. As of now, the price of light soda ash in Southwest China is between 1,800 - 1,900 yuan/ton, and the price of heavy soda ash is between 1,900 - 2,000 yuan/ton; the price of light soda ash in Northwest China is between 1,400 - 1,500 yuan/ton, and the price of heavy soda ash is between 1,500 - 1,550 yuan/ton; Some soda factories have stopped for maintenance, and the supply of goods has been reduced; The performance of downstream demand is still poor, and the market has a strong wait-and-see attitude. The inventory of soda ash companies continues to be high, the pressure of destocking is high, and the market continues to have a downward trend.

Futures dynamics

According to Boduo data, the opening price of SA2501, the main contract for soda ash, on August 20, was 1597 yuan/ton, and finally closed at 1616 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.89% within the day. The intraday high was 1624 yuan/ton, the lowest was 1579 yuan/ton, with a total position of 870215 lots, a month-on-month +26595 lots.

Today, the main contract price of soda ash futures showed a strong and volatile trend, and rose slightly in late trading with market sentiment. The fundamentals of soda ash itself have not improved significantly yet. There is a certain amount of low-cost replenishment in the downstream of the spot market, but it is still difficult to improve the supply and demand relationship. The pressure on upstream inventories is still high, and it is difficult to give a upward drive for the time being. However, after the main contracts in the futures market moved positions for a long time, the proportion of expected transactions has gradually increased. Recently, the overall sentiment of the commodity market has warmed up under the influence of the news. In the short term, we need to pay attention to whether the overall commodity market sentiment can continue to rise.

market outlook

There are still maintenance plans in the future, and the output and start-up will be adjusted; the downstream stock is mainly replenished in an appropriate amount, the purchasing sentiment is not positive, and soda ash prices lack upward momentum; it is expected that prices may continue to operate weakly in the short term.