Domestic urea price index:

According to Feiduo data, the urea small pellet price index on July 30 was 2,197.27, a decrease of 7.55 from yesterday, a month-on-month decrease of 0.34% and a year-on-year decrease of 12.89%.

Urea futures market:

Today, the opening price of the Urea UR409 contract is 1995, the highest price is 2039, the lowest price is 1995, the settlement price is 2024, and the closing price is 31% higher than the settlement price of the previous trading day, up 1.56% month-on-month. The fluctuation range throughout the day is 1995-2039; the basis of the 09 contract in Shandong is 106; the 09 contract has reduced its position by 4850 lots today, and the position is 139435 lots so far.

Urea futures prices rebounded slightly today, mainly affected by market rumors that export policies were loosened. However, in view of the current limited domestic export profits of urea, the credibility of the news is open to question. On the premise that its own fundamentals are weak, there is a certain suppression of the price rebound. In the short term, we can wait and see the persistence of market sentiment and how the actual situation evolves.

Spot market analysis:

Today, the domestic urea market prices are mixed, and the low-end transaction volume of enterprises continues to increase. The market is ready to support in the short term, and the quotations are firm and consolidated.

Specifically, prices in Northeast China fell to 2,150 - 2,190 yuan/ton. Prices in East China fell to 2,110 - 2,170 yuan/ton. The price of small and medium-sized particles in Central China has risen to 2,110 - 2,300 yuan/ton, and the price of large particles has stabilized at 2,180 - 2,210 yuan/ton. Prices in North China rose to 2,040 - 2,200 yuan/ton. Prices in South China are stable at 2,240 - 2,340 yuan/ton. Prices in Northwest China fell to 2,240 - 2,330 yuan/ton. Prices in Southwest China are stable at 2,100 - 2,500 yuan/ton.

Market outlook forecast:

In terms of factories, manufacturers have a better situation of receiving orders at low prices, increasing the order volume, execution is underway, and the quotations are firm. The current offers are mixed, and the company has slightly supported the price under the support of short-term waiting. In terms of the market, transactions with low-end goods in the market are obvious, while transactions with high-end goods are still weak. Currently, some prices in the market have risen slightly. Operators are cautious in purchasing, their emotions have returned to weakness, and the market atmosphere is temporarily deadlocked. On the supply side, the industry continues to have sufficient supply, and new production capacity is still released in the future. Market supply pressure is obvious, and negative conditions affect prices. On the demand side, downstream purchasing mentality is cautious, there is a small amount of demand for topdressing for agricultural needs, and follow-up is limited. Downstream compound fertilizer factories are less willing to replenish goods, and they often replenish goods on dips. The demand for raw materials is gradually declining. Other work needs are mainly based on just-needed purchases, which has limited market support, and short-term demand increases slowly, and weakness supports the market.

On the whole, the current supply and demand fundamentals in the urea market are weak. Some companies have better orders at low prices and are expected to be supported in a short period of time. It is expected that the urea market price will be stable and slow in a short period of time, and the upward trend will be greatly limited.