With the shutdown of some olefin units in the early stage and the imminent shutdown of individual units, the current start of olefin units in the mainland market has been lowered compared with the previous stage, and the market demand in East China has further weakened. At the same time, the arrival of imported ships and cargo in the port has also remained relatively high, and imports have increased. Demand is weak, and short-term port market inventories continue to accumulate.

In the first half of 2024, the overall inventory in the methanol port market showed a "W" trend, and the overall inventory volume decreased compared with the same period last year.According to Tu Duoduo's data monitoring,In the first half of the year, the lowest inventory appeared in late March, with the lowest inventory of 700,100 tons. The highest inventory appeared in early July, with the highest inventory reaching 976,700 tons.

Looking back at the situation in the first half of the year, the inventory in the port area is at the low level in recent years. The inventory in the port area dropped significantly in the first quarter. During this period, the olefin units operated relatively stably, and the overall performance on the demand side was better. After February and March, with the end of the natural gas restriction policy, the early parking units in the Middle East market have initially returned to normal operation. However, the negotiations in Iran were deadlocked, coupled with the unexpected parking of some units, and the low start-up of units in non-Iran in the first half of the year. The overall start of the international market showed a downward trend, which led to my country's overall imports maintaining at around 850,000 - 900,000 tons in February and March. The decrease in the arrival of imported ships and cargo at the port, and the steady consumption of downstream demand, the inventory in the port market continued to decline., and fell to its lowest position at the end of March. After entering the second quarter, with the steady increase in the construction of the international market, the arrival of my country's imported ships and cargo in Hong Kong began to gradually increase. Among them, the arrival of imported ships and cargo in April and May basically remained at around 1.05 - 1.1 million tons. At the same time, the shutdown of some olefin units in East China and the accidental shutdown of individual units have led to an increase in inventory in the port area. So far, under the influence of weak demand and the significant increase in the arrival of foreign ships from the port, the accumulation of stocks in the port market has accelerated.

Judging from the start of the international market, as of July 4, the start of the international market has increased to about 78%. Currently, installations such as Saudi Arabia, Oman, and Qatar are operating normally. MalaysiaPetronasStart and upgrade of large equipment; Most units in the United States are operating normally, and the Natgasoline unit has been started and upgraded. It is estimated that methanol imports may continue to increase in July, and imported cargo may increase by about 1.15 - 1.2 million tons when arriving in Hong Kong. However, the domestic market demand has not yet improved significantly, and it may continue to maintain weak operations in the short term. In the later period, port inventories may continue to accumulate rapidly. As port inventories accumulate, the spot basis may be significantly suppressed. However, in the later stage, it is necessary to pay close attention to the arrival of imported ships and cargo in the port, as well as the follow-up of subsequent port unloading speed and downstream market demand.