PVC: The futures price closed at the positive column with a long lower shadow line, with a low point, and the spot weakened slightly

May 29, 2024, 5:05 PM

PVC futures analysis: may 29th V2409 contract opening price: 6426, highest price: 6455, lowest price: 6347, position: 948811, settlement price: 6396, yesterday settlement: 6506, down: 110, daily trading volume: 1781115 lots, precipitated capital: 4.285 billion, capital outflow: 19.66 million.

List of comprehensive prices by region: yuan / ton

Area	May 28th	May 29th	Rise and fall	Remarks
North China	5950-6010	5930-5980	-20/-30	Send to cash remittance
East China	6000-6120	5950-6070	-50/-50	Cash out of the warehouse
South China	6050-6160	6000-6110	-50/-50	Cash out of the warehouse
Northeast China	5850-6000	5800-5950	-50/-50	Send to cash remittance
Central China	5950-6020	5920-5980	-30/-40	Send to cash remittance
Southwest	5850-5950	5850-5900	0/-50	Kuti / send to

PVC spot market: China PVC market mainstream transaction prices continue to decline slightly, regional quotations have declined. Compared with the valuation, it fell by 20-30 yuan / ton in North China, 50 yuan / ton in East China, 50 yuan / ton in South China, 50 yuan / ton in Northeast China, 30-40 yuan / ton in Central China and 50 yuan / ton in Southwest China. The factory prices of upstream PVC production enterprises are basically reduced, and the downward adjustment is more chaotic, ranging from 50-80-100 yuan / ton, but today's generation of contracts are not signed much, still based on basic quantity. The trend of futures is weak, and in the recent low arrangement, the price offers of traders in various regions are slightly lower than yesterday, and there are mainly actual negotiations in the spot yard, but the basis quotation part has a slight price advantage after the futures price goes down. among them, East China basis offer 09 contract-(300-350-380), South China 09 contract-(250-300), North 09 contract-(600-650) Southwest 09 contract-(400-450). The basis adjustment is not much, but the basis offer has enhanced the purchasing enthusiasm of the lower reaches, and the transaction of low-price goods in the market has improved.

From a futures point of view: & the night price of the nbsp; PVC2409 contract opened slightly lower, with the intraday low hitting 6347. After the start of morning trading, the narrow range of futures prices rose slightly, continued to fluctuate in the afternoon, and the late price returned to above 6400 and closed higher. 2409 contracts fluctuated from 6347 to 6455 throughout the day, with a spread of 108. 009 contracts reduced their positions by 9105 lots, with 948811 positions so far, 2501 contracts closing at 6612 and 121406 positions.

PVC Future Forecast:

Futures: The operation of the PVC2409 contract futures futures continued to sort out in the recent relatively low level, showing a certain state of small position reduction. In terms of transaction, the opening of more than 23.3% compared with the empty opening of 23.6% is insufficient, both the long and short sides wait and see for a short time, and the futures price closes at the positive pillar with a longer shadow line throughout the day. The technical level shows that the opening of the Bollinger belt (13,13,2) three tracks is obvious upward, and the MACD white line at the daily level has a downward trend. KD line continues to show a golden cross trend. The low point of the futures price begins to approach the mid-track position. The stimulus of the policy has been weakened, as a whole, the operation of futures prices or continue to adjust in the short term, and observe the performance of the range of 6350-6550 between the upper and middle tracks.

Spot: first of all from the overall commodity sentiment point of view, the main Chinese futures contracts rose or fell mixed, glass rose more than 3%, Shanghai Bank, butadiene rubber (BR), low-sulfur fuel oil (LU) rose more than 2%, fuel, Shanghai zinc rose nearly 2%. In terms of decline, industrial silicon fell by more than 3%, rapeseed meal and soybean meal by more than 2%, and caustic soda by nearly 2%. Chlor-alkali plate of the two main commodities caustic soda, PVC are slightly weaker today. On the one hand, the fermentation intensity of the policy is reduced, although Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen have begun to implement the policy one after another, but the stimulus to the overall commodity is relatively small. On the supply and demand side of PVC, maintenance supply decreases slightly, demand maintains rigid demand, and calcium carbide cost is stable. In the outer disk, the price of international crude oil futures market rose due to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and market expectations that OPEC+ oil-producing countries will extend production cuts at the online oil production policy meeting held on June 2. Overall, PVC spot market prices will continue to adjust in the short term.

PVC spread arbitrage analysis:

Arbitrage Analysis of PVC spread
PVC	Contract price difference	May 28th	May 29th	Rate of change
	V2409 collection	6420	6452	32
	Average spot price in East China	6060	6010	-50
	Average spot price in South China	6105	6055	-50
	PVC2409 basis difference	-360	-442	-82
	V2501 collection	6570	6612	42
	V2409-2501 close	-150	-160	-10
	PP2409 collection	7804	7833	29
	Plastic L2409	8616	8650	34
	V--PP basis difference	-1384	-1381	3
	Vmure-L basis difference of plastics	-2196	-2198	-2

China PVC Index: according to Tuduoduo data, China calcium Carbide PVC spot index fell 40.75, or 0.677%, to 5980.77 on May 29th. The ethylene PVC spot index was 6241.20, down 42.22, or 0.672%, while the calcium carbide index fell, the ethylene index fell, and the ethylene-calcium carbide index spread was 260.43.

PVC warehouse receipt daily:

Variety	Warehouse / branch warehouse	Yesterday's warehouse order quantity	Today's warehouse order volume	Increase or decrease
Polyvinyl chloride	China Reserve shares	4,302	5,430	1,128
	Large-scale reserve	240	240	0
	Guangzhou materials	2,053	2,053	0
	The central reserve is near the port	966	2,094	1,128
	China Central Reserve Nanjing	1,043	1,043	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Cosco sea logistics	4,092	4,092	0
	Zhenjiang Middle and far Sea	1,353	1,353	0
	Shanghai Zhongyuan Sea	1,273	1,273	0
	Middle and far sea in Jiangyin	1,466	1,466	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang 837	120	120	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang International Trade	3,189	3,189	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Peak supply chain	1,699	1,699	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Shanghai-Hong Kong logistics	1,050	1,090	40
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangyin Xiefeng	5,890	5,960	70
Polyvinyl chloride	Benniu Port, Changzhou	15,682	16,142	460
Polyvinyl chloride	Pinghu Huarui	4,140	4,140	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Hangzhou port logistics	2,097	2,097	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangsu Zhengsheng	5,499	5,499	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Quick biography of Xiangyu in Shanghai	84	84	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangsu Yanjin	1,014	1,014	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Chuanhua mandarin	631	750	119
Polyvinyl chloride	Xiamen Xiangyu (Benniu Port)	300	300	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Xiamen Xiangyu (Shanghai Xiangyu)	900	900	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang tomorrow (Benniu Port)	600	600	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang tomorrow (Zhejiang International Trade)	300	300	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang tomorrow (837)	0	240	240
Polyvinyl chloride	Products Zhongda Chemical Industry (Benniu Port)	900	900	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Products Zhongda Chemical Industry (Railway Changxing)	300	300	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Yongan Capital (Benniu Port)	1,200	1,200	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Sino-Thai Duojing (Zhejiang International Trade)	1,000	1,000	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Sinotrans East China	3,060	3,060	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang Jiahua	300	300	0
PVC subtotal		58,349	60,406	2,057
Total		58,349	60,406	2,057