PVC: Futures prices narrowed and adjusted back in a narrow range, the trend of the plasticized sector diverged, and the spot weakened slightly
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May 27, 2024, 4:58 PM PVC futures analysis: may 27th V2409 contract opening price: 6485, highest price: 6534, lowest price: 6445, position: 977291, settlement price: 6489, yesterday settlement: 6552, down: 63, daily trading volume: 1923805 lots, precipitated capital: 4.419 billion, capital inflow: 61 million.
List of comprehensive prices by region: yuan / ton
|
Area |
It's May 24th |
May 27th |
Rise and fall |
Remarks |
|
North China |
6030-6090 |
5980-6040 |
-50/-50 |
Send to cash remittance |
|
East China |
6110-6230 |
6050-6170 |
-60/-60 |
Cash out of the warehouse |
|
South China |
6080-6260 |
6050-6210 |
-30/-50 |
Cash out of the warehouse |
|
Northeast China |
5850-5950 |
5800-5900 |
-50/-50 |
Send to cash remittance |
|
Central China |
6000-6090 |
5950-6040 |
-50/-50 |
Send to cash remittance |
|
Southwest |
5850-5930 |
5850-5900 |
0/-30 |
Kuti / send to |
PVC spot market: China PVC market mainstream transaction prices a small correction, market prices did not see more stimulus at the beginning of the week. Compared with the valuation, it fell by 50 yuan / ton in North China, 60 yuan / ton in East China, 30-5 yuan / ton in South China, 50 yuan / ton in Northeast China, 50 yuan / ton in Central China and 30 yuan / ton in Southwest China. Upstream PVC production enterprise factory price sporadic reduction of 50-70 yuan / ton, most enterprises price stability wait and see, individual enterprises in order to stimulate shipments slightly reduced. The futures concussion finishing high point was weaker than last Friday, the spot market trader's price offer decreased compared with the previous period, and the high-price supply was difficult to close the transaction, the transaction range of the same brand supply in the spot market was expanded, and there were some low-price maturing sources. Today, there are basis offers in the spot market, including 09 contracts in East China (300-350-380), 09 contracts in South China-(250-300), 09 contracts in North China-(600-650), and 09 contracts in Southwest China-(400-450). On the whole, the downstream purchasing intention is still on the low side, and most of them continue to wait and see.
From a futures point of view: & the price of the nbsp; PVC2409 contract rose slightly at the start of the night trading on Friday, but did not rise enough and then went down. After the start of early trading on Monday, the futures price still rose slightly and then fell slightly, and the afternoon price fluctuated in a small range. 2409 contracts fluctuated in the range of 6445-6534 throughout the day, with a spread of 89. 09 contracts with an increase of 15873 positions, with 977291 positions so far, 2501 contracts closing at 6616 and 120304 positions.
PVC Future Forecast:
Futures: The operation of the PVC2409 contract futures price is mainly arranged in a narrow range, and the market continues to show a trend of increasing positions. in terms of transactions, the opening is 24.9% higher than the short opening 23.6%, which still shows a certain long sentiment, and the short level is increased by 25.4% compared with 23.5%. On the one hand, the short order part leaves the market after the futures price goes down, on the other hand, there is still a certain number of orders entering the market after the futures price goes down. Therefore, from the current trading trend, there is still a strong basis for the operation of futures prices. However, in today's overall plasticizing plate, the performance of PVC is relatively weaker than that of polyolefin products, and the price difference between 3Ps has widened. Overall, in the short term, the operation of PVC futures will continue to observe the performance in the range of 6400-6600.
Spot: in the plasticizing plate, today's PVC performance is weak, making the price difference between PVC- polyolefins widening again. However, at present, the operation of futures prices is still at a high level, and there are no obvious negative factors in the two cities, so a certain pullback can be treated rationally. From the perspective of supply and demand in the spot market, some PVC production enterprises began to complete maintenance in accordance with the maintenance plan, the supply decreased correspondingly, the high price suppressed part of the downstream demand, and the downstream products enterprises held a wait-and-see mentality. However, from the current time point of view, whether it is the overall commodity sentiment or overall volatility expectations, there is still a certain preference performance in the third quarter. In the outer disk, international oil prices ended four consecutive declines and closed higher, but fell weekly on fears that strong US economic data would keep interest rates high for a long time, thereby curbing fuel demand. On the whole, in the short term, the PVC spot market is mainly high and narrow.
PVC spread arbitrage analysis:
|
Arbitrage Analysis of PVC spread |
||||
|
PVC |
Contract price difference |
It's May 24th |
May 27th |
Rate of change |
|
V2409 collection |
6475 |
6495 |
20 |
|
|
Average spot price in East China |
6170 |
6110 |
-60 |
|
|
Average spot price in South China |
6170 |
6130 |
-40 |
|
|
PVC2409 basis difference |
-305 |
-385 |
-80 |
|
|
V2501 collection |
6633 |
6616 |
-17 |
|
|
V2409-2501 close |
-158 |
-121 |
37 |
|
|
PP2409 collection |
7755 |
7832 |
77 |
|
|
Plastic L2409 |
8557 |
8669 |
112 |
|
|
V--PP basis difference |
-1280 |
-1337 |
-57 |
|
|
Vmure-L basis difference of plastics |
-2082 |
-2174 |
-92 |
|
China PVC Index: according to Tuduoduo data, the Chinese calcium carbide PVC spot index fell 47.64, or 0.782%, to 6042.54 on May 27th. The ethylene PVC spot index was 6332.39, down 56.39, or 0.883%. The calcium carbide index fell, the ethylene index fell, and the ethylene-calcium carbide index spread was 289.85.
PVC warehouse receipt daily:
|
Variety |
Warehouse / branch warehouse |
Yesterday's warehouse order quantity |
Today's warehouse order volume |
Increase or decrease |
|
Polyvinyl chloride |
China Reserve shares |
4,301 |
4,302 |
1 |
|
|
Large-scale reserve |
240 |
240 |
0 |
|
|
Guangzhou materials |
2,053 |
2,053 |
0 |
|
|
The central reserve is near the port |
965 |
966 |
1 |
|
|
China Central Reserve Nanjing |
1,043 |
1,043 |
0 |
|
Polyvinyl chloride |
Cosco sea logistics |
4,092 |
4,092 |
0 |
|
|
Zhenjiang Middle and far Sea |
1,353 |
1,353 |
0 |
|
|
Shanghai Zhongyuan Sea |
1,273 |
1,273 |
0 |
|
|
Middle and far sea in Jiangyin |
1,466 |
1,466 |
0 |
|
Polyvinyl chloride |
Zhejiang 837 |
120 |
120 |
0 |
|
Polyvinyl chloride |
Zhejiang International Trade |
3,189 |
3,189 |
0 |
|
Polyvinyl chloride |
Peak supply chain |
1,699 |
1,699 |
0 |
|
Polyvinyl chloride |
Shanghai-Hong Kong logistics |
891 |
891 |
0 |
|
Polyvinyl chloride |
Jiangyin Xiefeng |
5,890 |
5,890 |
0 |
|
Polyvinyl chloride |
Benniu Port, Changzhou |
15,402 |
15,402 |
0 |
|
Polyvinyl chloride |
Pinghu Huarui |
3,490 |
4,140 |
650 |
|
Polyvinyl chloride |
Hangzhou port logistics |
2,097 |
2,097 |
0 |
|
Polyvinyl chloride |
Jiangsu Zhengsheng |
5,499 |
5,499 |
0 |
|
Polyvinyl chloride |
Quick biography of Xiangyu in Shanghai |
84 |
84 |
0 |
|
Polyvinyl chloride |
Jiangsu Yanjin |
1,014 |
1,014 |
0 |
|
Polyvinyl chloride |
Chuanhua mandarin |
631 |
631 |
0 |
|
Polyvinyl chloride |
Xiamen Xiangyu (Benniu Port) |
300 |
300 |
0 |
|
Polyvinyl chloride |
Xiamen Xiangyu (Shanghai Xiangyu) |
900 |
900 |
0 |
|
Polyvinyl chloride |
Zhejiang tomorrow (Benniu Port) |
600 |
600 |
0 |
|
Polyvinyl chloride |
Zhejiang tomorrow (Zhejiang International Trade) |
300 |
300 |
0 |
|
Polyvinyl chloride |
Products Zhongda Chemical Industry (Benniu Port) |
900 |
900 |
0 |
|
Polyvinyl chloride |
Products Zhongda Chemical Industry (Railway Changxing) |
300 |
300 |
0 |
|
Polyvinyl chloride |
Yongan Capital (Benniu Port) |
1,200 |
1,200 |
0 |
|
Polyvinyl chloride |
Sino-Thai Duojing (Zhejiang International Trade) |
1,000 |
1,000 |
0 |
|
Polyvinyl chloride |
Sinotrans East China |
3,060 |
3,060 |
0 |
|
Polyvinyl chloride |
Zhejiang Jiahua |
300 |
300 |
0 |
|
PVC subtotal |
|
57,259 |
57,910 |
651 |
|
Total |
|
57,259 |
57,910 |
651 |
PVC long bears hold the list of bulls:
|
Dalian Commodity Exchange Daily turnover position ranking (Table 1) contract Code: v2409 Enquiry date: 20240527 |
|||
|
Ranking |
Member abbreviation |
Trading volume |
Increase or decrease |
|
1 |
Citic Futures (valet) |
374,452 |
-136,161 |
|
2 |
Guotai Junan (valet) |
363,510 |
-228,319 |
|
3 |
Eastern Stock Exchange Futures (valet) |
315,015 |
-245,346 |
|
4 |
Huawen Futures (valet) |
291,542 |
-289,556 |
|
5 |
League of Nations Futures (valet) |
118,060 |
-63,127 |
|
6 |
Huizhou Merchants Futures (valet) |
114,839 |
-157,084 |
|
7 |
Galaxy Futures (valet) |
108,163 |
-105,811 |
|
8 |
Haitong Futures (valet) |
101,413 |
-147,623 |
|
9 |
Guangfa Futures (valet) |
98,209 |
-79,561 |
|
10 |
Middle period of founder (valet) |
85,568 |
-90,768 |
|
11 |
Huatai Futures (valet) |
80,186 |
-72,835 |
|
12 |
Shenyin Wanguo (valet) |
78,176 |
-54,810 |
|
13 |
Citic Construction Investment (valet) |
75,033 |
-103,654 |
|
14 |
Soochow Futures (valet) |
72,716 |
-138,850 |
|
15 |
Sino-Thai Futures (valet) |
62,007 |
-26,261 |
|
16 |
Oriental Wealth (valet) |
55,500 |
-53,162 |
|
17 |
Huaxi Futures (valet) |
46,870 |
-58,791 |
|
18 |
Bohai Futures (valet) |
44,693 |
-72,393 |
|
19 |
Zhonghui Futures (valet) |
44,358 |
-67,366 |
|
20 |
Hua'an Futures (valet) |
43,768 |
-65,838 |
|
Total |
|
2,574,078 |
-2,257,316 |
|
Dalian Commodity Exchange Daily transaction position ranking (Table 2) contract Code: v2409 Enquiry date: 20240527 |
|||||||
|
Ranking |
Member abbreviation |
Hold the purchase order quantity |
Increase or decrease |
Ranking |
Member abbreviation |
Hold sales order quantity |
Increase or decrease |
|
1 |
Zhongcai Futures (valet) |
122,467 |
3,295 |
1 |
Guotai Junan (valet) |
125,465 |
10,137 |
|
2 |
Guotai Junan (valet) |
40,787 |
-12,661 |
2 |
Yongan Futures (valet) |
68,834 |
-405 |
|
3 |
Citic Futures (valet) |
31,882 |
1,438 |
3 |
Citic Futures (valet) |
53,997 |
6,476 |
|
4 |
Huatai Futures (valet) |
28,267 |
1,502 |
4 |
Galaxy Futures (valet) |
50,231 |
371 |
|
5 |
Galaxy Futures (valet) |
25,970 |
-2,216 |
5 |
Eastern Stock Exchange Futures (valet) |
41,404 |
1,149 |
|
6 |
Huizhou Merchants Futures (valet) |
25,262 |
1,965 |
6 |
Shenyin Wanguo (valet) |
36,145 |
-1,702 |
|
7 |
Yongan Futures (valet) |
24,895 |
2,975 |
7 |
Zhejiang Merchants Futures (valet) |
35,401 |
499 |
|
8 |
Eastern Stock Exchange Futures (valet) |
24,629 |
-2,086 |
8 |
Guotou Anxin (valet) |
26,977 |
-1,730 |
|
9 |
Citic Construction Investment (valet) |
22,915 |
-86 |
9 |
Huatai Futures (valet) |
26,620 |
-146 |
|
10 |
Middle period of founder (valet) |
22,284 |
1,827 |
10 |
Citic Construction Investment (valet) |
22,202 |
-2,001 |
|
11 |
Zhonghui Futures (valet) |
19,256 |
1,583 |
11 |
ITC Futures (valet) |
18,528 |
229 |
|
12 |
Haitong Futures (valet) |
18,423 |
-2,053 |
12 |
Guangfa Futures (valet) |
17,946 |
-1,761 |
|
13 |
Cofco Futures (valet) |
18,035 |
1,710 |
13 |
Zhongcai Futures (valet) |
17,264 |
-1,558 |
|
14 |
Zhejiang Merchants Futures (valet) |
17,603 |
42 |
14 |
Medium-sized products (valet) |
16,985 |
435 |
|
15 |
Hongyuan Futures (valet) |
17,153 |
1,022 |
15 |
Everbright Futures (valet) |
16,514 |
-196 |
|
16 |
Sino-Thai Futures (valet) |
16,609 |
1,903 |
16 |
Middle period of founder (valet) |
16,449 |
2,611 |
|
17 |
Hua'an Futures (valet) |
15,167 |
364 |
17 |
South China Futures (valet) |
16,267 |
-1,140 |
|
18 |
Guangfa Futures (valet) |
14,223 |
-1,222 |
18 |
CICC Wealth (valet) |
15,278 |
2,773 |
|
19 |
Soochow Futures (valet) |
13,624 |
1,081 |
19 |
Donghai Futures (valet) |
13,953 |
1,188 |
|
20 |
South China Futures (valet) |
13,201 |
-1,239 |
20 |
Haitong Futures (valet) |
13,611 |
7,890 |
|
Total |
|
532,652 |
-856 |
Total |
|
650,071 |
23,119 |
The information provided in this report is for reference only.