PVC: Futures once again stepped on the prefix 6, running strong in the late session, and the spot market rose slightly at the beginning of the week

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May 13, 2024, 4:56 PM

PVC futures analysis: may 13th V2409 contract opening price: 5989, highest price: 6052, lowest price: 5987, position: 914157, settlement price: 6019, yesterday settlement: 5997, down: 22, daily trading volume: 905916 lots, precipitated capital: 3.867 billion, capital inflow: 60.74 million.

List of comprehensive prices by region: yuan / ton

Area	May eleventh	May 13th	Rise and fall	Remarks
North China	5500-5580	5520-5580	20/0	Send to cash remittance
East China	5610-5730	5630-5730	20/0	Cash out of the warehouse
South China	5660-5750	5670-5770	10/20	Cash out of the warehouse
Northeast China	5450-5650	5410-5620	-40/-30	Send to cash remittance
Central China	5600-5670	5620-5670	20/0	Send to cash remittance
Southwest	5530-5640	5510-5640	-20/0	Kuti / send to

PVC spot market: China PVC market mainstream transaction prices rose slightly, the spot market began to be OK at the beginning of the week. Compared with the valuation, it rose 20 yuan / ton in North China, 20 yuan / ton in East China, 10-20 yuan / ton in South China, 30-40 yuan / ton in Northeast China, 20 yuan / ton in Central China and 20 yuan / ton in Southwest China. The ex-factory prices of upstream PVC production enterprises tentatively rose by 20-50 yuan / ton, the prices of remote warehouses in some northwest regions rose synchronously, and the export quotations of some enterprises increased by 9 US dollars / ton. Futures are running strongly, and the spot market quotation is slightly higher than that of Saturday, and coexists with the spot price, but the basis of the spot price does not change much and has no advantage for the time being, including 09 contract in East China (350-380), 09 contract in South China-(250-280), 09 contract in North China-(550-600), and 09 contract in Southwest China-(400). Although spot market prices have risen slightly since the beginning of the week, merchants have expanded their profits. In order to strive for better transactions and inventory digestion, downstream upstream feedback on market prices is relatively flat.

From the perspective of futures: & the night price of the nbsp; PVC2409 contract rose slightly at the start of trading, and the price was pushed back to the prefix 6. After the start of the morning trading on Monday, the futures price was sorted out in a narrow range, and the afternoon price rose for the second time. 2409 contracts fluctuated in the range of 5987-6052 throughout the day, with a shortfall of 65. 09 contracts with an increase of 5790 positions, with 914157 positions so far, 2501 contracts closing at 6210 and 87843 positions.

PVC Future Forecast:

Futures: The futures price of PVC2409 contract once again stepped on the prefix of 6, especially the late trading price showed a trend of strong operation, and the price of increasing positions rose slightly. In terms of transaction, some bullish sentiment appeared again in terms of trading, which was 24.8% higher than that of short opening. The technical level showed that the three-track openings of Bollinger Belt (13, 13, 2) were all upward, which ended last week's three consecutive declines. The high point of the futures price is beginning to approach the upper track position again. The KD line at the daily line level shows a slight golden fork trend, while the MACD line shows an obvious golden fork trend. From the current time node, we still believe that the operation of futures prices is expected to be good, and observe the stability of the high range of 5970-6080 in the short term.

Spot: first of all, the overall cultural index of commodities strengthened today, and the main Chinese futures contracts closed up and down at midday. The container transportation index (European line) rose by more than 14%, manganese and silicon by more than 6%, and iron ore, vegetable oil, methanol and No. 20 glue (NR) by more than 2%. In terms of decline, lithium carbonate fell by more than 2%, and fuel oil and coking coal fell by more than 1%. But the overall plasticizing plate performance is strong today, PVC prices in the two cities rose slightly, PVC fundamentals, the cost of port calcium carbide prices rose 50-100 yuan / ton, calcium carbide cost support is obvious. There is no obvious change in supply and demand, the start-up load of PVC plant is stable, the feedback from the upstream and downstream of the price on the demand side is mediocre, and the follow-up mood is insufficient, and although there are expectations in the two cities of PVC over time, the pace of spot procurement has not improved, and social inventory remains high. Although the fundamentals of PVC have become a weak consensus, the two cities are still out of certain expectations after testing low levels for a long time, so the spot market of PVC may be slightly stronger in the short term.

PVC spread arbitrage analysis:

Arbitrage Analysis of PVC spread
PVC	Contract price difference	May 10th	May 13th	Rate of change
	V2409 collection	5986	6043	57
	Average spot price in East China	5660	5680	20
	Average spot price in South China	5695	5720	25
	PVC2409 basis difference	-326	-363	-37
	V2501 collection	6151	6201	50
	V2409-2501 close	-165	-158	7
	PP2409 collection	7540	7584	44
	Plastic L2409	8441	8480	39
	V--PP basis difference	-1554	-1541	13
	Vmure-L basis difference of plastics	-2455	-2437	18

China PVC Index: according to Tudou data, the Chinese calcium carbide PVC spot index rose 6.54, or 0.116%, to 5638.06 on May 13. The ethylene PVC spot index was 5915.64, down 15, with a range of 0.253%. The calcium carbide index rose, the ethylene index fell, and the ethylene-calcium carbide index spread was 277.58.

PVC warehouse receipt daily:

Variety	Warehouse / branch warehouse	Yesterday's warehouse order quantity	Today's warehouse order volume	Increase or decrease
Polyvinyl chloride	China Reserve shares	2,569	2,845	276
	Large-scale reserve	240	240	0
	Guangzhou materials	1,259	1,535	276
	The central reserve is near the port	255	255	0
	China Central Reserve Nanjing	815	815	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Cosco sea logistics	2,571	2,571	0
	Zhenjiang Middle and far Sea	919	919	0
	Shanghai Zhongyuan Sea	601	601	0
	Middle and far sea in Jiangyin	1,051	1,051	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang 837	60	60	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang International Trade	1,760	1,760	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Peak supply chain	1,004	1,004	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Shanghai-Hong Kong logistics	615	615	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangyin Xiefeng	5,285	5,285	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Benniu Port, Changzhou	10,260	10,888	628
Polyvinyl chloride	Pinghu Huarui	1,972	2,230	258
Polyvinyl chloride	Hangzhou port logistics	783	783	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangsu Zhengsheng	5,035	5,035	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Quick biography of Xiangyu in Shanghai	84	84	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangsu Yanjin	850	850	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Chuanhua mandarin	379	379	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Xiamen Xiangyu (Benniu Port)	300	300	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Xiamen Xiangyu (Shanghai Xiangyu)	900	900	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang tomorrow (Benniu Port)	600	600	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang tomorrow (Zhejiang International Trade)	300	300	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Products Zhongda Chemical Industry (Benniu Port)	900	900	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Products Zhongda Chemical Industry (Railway Changxing)	600	600	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Yongan Capital (Benniu Port)	1,200	1,200	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Sino-Thai Duojing (Zhejiang International Trade)	0	1,000	1,000
Polyvinyl chloride	Sinotrans East China	1,560	1,560	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang Jiahua	300	300	0
PVC subtotal		39,887	42,049	2,162
Total		39,887	42,049	2,162