China Urea Price Index:

According to calculations from Feiduo data, the urea small pellet price index on May 13 was 2,340.45, an increase of 14.27 from the previous working day, a month-on-month increase of 0.61% and a year-on-year decrease of 1.56%.

Urea futures market:

Today, the opening price of urea UR409 contract: 2110, the highest price: 2143, the lowest price: 2106, the settlement price: 2123, the closing price: 2139. The closing price increased by 29 compared with the settlement price of the previous trading day, up 1.37% month-on-month, and the fluctuation range throughout the day is 2106-2143; the basis of the 09 contract in Shandong is 211; the 09 contract has increased its position by 7760 lots today, and so far, it has held 244756 lots.

At present, the fundamentals of the urea market have not changed significantly, and expectations of supply contraction and demand still exist. Although the high price is suppressed by objective factors, there are no conditions for a significant price cut in the short term, and it is expected that the operation will still be dominated by shocks.

Spot market analysis:

Today, China's urea market prices continued to rise. Companies 'quotations increased steadily, and supply continued to shrink. Companies' quotations rose firmly under the support of waiting.

Specifically, prices in Northeast China rose to 2,220 - 2,270 yuan/ton. Prices in East China rose to 2,310 - 2,380 yuan/ton. The price of small and medium-sized particles in Central China has risen to 2,320 - 2,380 yuan/ton, and the price of large particles has stabilized at 2,260 - 2,310 yuan/ton. Prices in North China rose to 2,190 - 2,390 yuan/ton. Prices in South China rose to 2,380 - 2,460 yuan/ton. Prices in Northwest China rose to 2,320 - 2,330 yuan/ton. Prices in Southwest China rose to 2,260 - 2,700 yuan/ton.

Market outlook forecast:

In terms of factories, the manufacturers have had a good order receipt in the past week, with a large number of orders received in advance. Currently, they are performing more agency delivery, and the offer is firm and upward, and the mentality is mainly positive. In terms of the market, the current high market prices continue to rise, and operators are limited in chasing after high prices. They continue to follow up with caution, the pace of procurement has been suspended, and the market trading atmosphere has dropped somewhat compared with the previous period. In terms of supply, there are not a few maintenance units this month. It is expected that most maintenance companies have stopped operations. Short-term industry start-ups are showing a downward trend. Nissan continues to operate at a low level, and spot supply in the market is still tight. On the demand side, agricultural demand remains in need of follow-up, and procurement is limited; industrial downstream compound fertilizer factories continue to start at a high level, industrial demand continues, and the overall demand situation is relatively good.

On the whole, the current urea market price is running at a high level, the company's quotations are firm under the support of waiting, and the downstream continues to follow up with high prices. It is expected that the urea market will run at a high level in a short period of time, and the price increase will gradually slow down.