PVC: Futures positions have changed greatly, but futures prices have competed within a narrow range, and the spot market has fallen slightly.

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April 19, 2024, 4:26 PM

PVC futures analysis: April 19th V2409 contract opening price: 5926, highest price: 5938, lowest price: 5871, position: 855015, settlement price: 5902, yesterday settlement: 5930, down: 28, daily trading volume: 1027848 lots, precipitated capital: 3.522 billion, capital inflow: 247 million.

List of comprehensive prices by region: yuan / ton

Area	April eighteenth	April nineteenth	Rise and fall	Remarks
North China	5460-5520	5450-5520	-10/0	Send to cash remittance
East China	5540-5630	5510-5600	-30/-30	Cash out of the warehouse
South China	5580-5650	5580-5630	0/-20	Cash out of the warehouse
Northeast China	5400-5600	5400-5600	0/0	Send to cash remittance
Central China	5530-5580	5530-5580	0/0	Send to cash remittance
Southwest	5420-5610	5420-5610	0/0	Kuti / send to

PVC spot market: China PVC market mainstream transaction prices are mainly arranged in a narrow range, the spot market prices are adjusted slightly, and prices in some areas have fallen slightly. Compared with the valuation, it fell by 10 yuan / ton in North China, 30 yuan / ton in East China, 20 yuan / ton in South China, stable in Northeast China, stable in Central China and stable in Southwest China. The factory prices of upstream PVC production enterprises mostly remain stable, and there is no obvious adjustment on Friday, but there are not many contracts signed in the first generation, and the merchants wait and see more. Futures concussion weakens, the operation of the market is poor, the spot market trader's price offer is partially lower than yesterday, and the market spread offer and one price coexist, of which East China basis offer 05 contract-(250-270), South China 09 contract-(280), North 09 contract-(600), Southwest 09 contract-(400). On the whole, the offer price and price advantage of the spot market are not obvious, and the prices of some urgent delivery sources are slightly lower. Downstream procurement enthusiasm is not high, the overall transaction in the market is general.

Futures point of view: PVC2409 contract night price volatility weakened, but the overall decline in the night market is not big. The futures price rose slightly after the start of morning trading, and the high price was slightly higher than the night high, but then the futures price began to weaken, mainly in the afternoon low and narrow range. 2409 contracts fluctuate in the range of 5871-5938 throughout the day, with a spread of 67. 09 contracts with an increase of 64801 positions and 855015 positions so far. The 2405 contract closed at 5747, with 250016 positions.

PVC Future Forecast:

Futures: The operation of the futures market of the PVC2409 contract continues to show a significant downward trend of increasing the futures price, but under the circumstances of narrowing the overall fluctuation range, the position is increased by more than 648,000 hands, and in terms of transaction, the short opening is 27.8% compared with 23.9% more. On the one hand, the replacement of the hedging policy is changed, on the other hand, the main contract is still mainly short, and the short position is relative to the market control. It leads to the continuous low arrangement of the two cities in the future. The technical level shows that the opening of the three tracks of the Bolin belt (13, 13, 2) is downward, and the KD line and MACD line at the daily level show a dead-fork trend. in the short term, the operation of the futures price will continue to be tested mainly in the low level, observing the performance in the range of 5850-5980, especially the lower rail support level.

Spot aspect: coincides with the weak performance of the spot market on Friday, the current spot market high-priced supply is more difficult to close transactions, East and South China urgent pick-up source prices generally have room for profit, and no matter the point price transaction or a mouthful price, downstream feedback is flat, production enterprises and middlemen have been under shipping pressure, chlor-alkali enterprises are more difficult to operate at the current stage, unit valuation is low, and shipments are not smooth. Soon approaching May Day, it is difficult to have a macro-level news guidance before the material festival, based on the weak fundamentals of high inventory constraints are obvious. On the outer disk, international oil prices were mixed, with investors weighing mixed US economic data, US sanctions on Venezuela and Iran, and easing tensions in the Middle East. On the whole, the PVC spot market will continue to fluctuate in the short term.

PVC spread arbitrage analysis:

Arbitrage Analysis of PVC spread
PVC	Contract price difference	April eighteenth	April nineteenth	Rate of change
	V2409 collection	5921	5885	-36
	Average spot price in East China	5585	5555	-30
	Average spot price in South China	5615	5605	-10
	PVC2409 basis difference	-336	-330	6
	V2501 collection	6062	6030	-32
	V2409-2501 close	-141	-145	-4
	PP2409 collection	7608	7650	42
	Plastic L2409	8439	8464	25
	V--PP basis difference	-1687	-1765	-78
	Vmure-L basis difference of plastics	-2518	-2579	-61

China PVC Index: according to Tuduoduo data, the Chinese calcium carbide PVC spot index fell 12.2% to 5544.57 on April 19, down 0.22%. The PVC spot index of ethylene method is 5834.73, down 0%, the range is 0%, the index of calcium carbide method is down, the index of ethylene method is stable, and the price difference between ethylene method and calcium carbide method is 290.16.

PVC warehouse receipt daily:

Variety	Warehouse / branch warehouse	4.18 warehouse orders	4.19 warehouse orders	change
Polyvinyl chloride	China Reserve shares	2,159	2,159	0
	Large-scale reserve	240	240	0
	Guangzhou materials	1,090	1,090	0
	The central reserve is near the port	118	118	0
	China Central Reserve Nanjing	711	711	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Cosco sea logistics	1,796	1,796	0
	Zhenjiang Middle and far Sea	396	396	0
	Shanghai Zhongyuan Sea	471	471	0
	Middle and far sea in Jiangyin	929	929	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang 837	60	60	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang International Trade	1,496	1,496	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Peak supply chain	784	784	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Shanghai-Hong Kong logistics	311	382	71
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangyin Xiefeng	4,682	4,682	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Benniu Port, Changzhou	4,586	4,686	100
Polyvinyl chloride	Pinghu Huarui	1,053	1,053	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Hangzhou port logistics	184	184	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangsu Zhengsheng	3,743	4,001	258
Polyvinyl chloride	Quick biography of Xiangyu in Shanghai	84	84	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangsu Yanjin	518	518	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Chuanhua mandarin	379	379	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang tomorrow (Benniu Port)	300	300	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang tomorrow (Zhejiang International Trade)	150	150	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Products Zhongda Chemical Industry (Benniu Port)	450	450	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Sinotrans East China	1,560	1,560	0
PVC subtotal		24,295	24,724	429
Total		24,295	24,724	429