In recent years, it is an indisputable fact that there is serious overcapacity in the oil and chemical industries, especially since 2023. At the research seminar on the production and operation of key enterprises in the petroleum and chemical industries held on 2 April, Li Shousheng, president of the China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Federation, stressed that the contradiction of structural overcapacity in the industry this year is still very prominent. however, it is necessary to effectively resolve the problem of serious overcapacity in the industry, and speed up the cultivation of new quality productive forces as the best solution.
The latest statistics of the    Petrochemical Federation show that in addition to the growing contradiction of overcapacity of the original bulk basic raw materials, even ethylene, which has been in shortage in the past, has sounded the alarm of overcapacity. Overcapacity has become a "stubborn disease" restricting the high-quality development of the whole industry.
   some people may say that only overcapacity in the industry can force enterprises to constantly improve their process technology and open up new demand, so as to break out of the Red Sea competition. This view can only be established on the premise of moderate overcapacity in the industry, except when there is structural overcapacity or even serious overcapacity. Serious overcapacity means insufficient effective demand in the market, and prices of chemical products fluctuate sharply; structural overcapacity means overcapacity at the low end and insufficient capacity at the high end, so that there is no market for existing products, or even if they are sold, the price has also been beaten into a "fracture".
   industry process technology mature into no barriers, enterprises have their own resource endowment, coupled with high product prices, these factors become the "invisible" market "hand", affecting the enterprise's investment strategy and investment enthusiasm, making some enterprises even know that overcapacity, but still happy to enter the already crowded "besieged city"-such as oil refining, methanol, PVC and other fields. Or some enterprises in the original inefficient capacity has not yet been eliminated, still expand capacity, and the pursuit of fast projects, on a large scale, further aggravating the overcapacity.
   however, many sub-industries of the industry take real estate, automobile industry and agriculture as the terminal of the industrial chain. Nowadays, the high demeanor of real estate in China is hard to find, the overcapacity of the automobile industry may further increase, and the surplus of chemical fertilizer is becoming more and more obvious, which means that it is difficult to solve the old road of overcapacity.
However, the development of new quality productive forces of    is a dawn for traditional industries, and it will become an effective starting point to resolve overcapacity. Enterprises should get rid of the important thinking, take the initiative, renew their ideas, actively embrace new quality productive forces, form a high-level dynamic balance between new supply and new demand, and strive to get out of the "strange circle" of serious overcapacity.
At present, the problem of "whether there is or not" in most areas of    has been basically solved, and the problem of "whether it is good or not" has become increasingly prominent, which objectively requires the formation of a new balance between demand and supply, and the development of new productive forces provides a strong support for the construction of this new balance. On the one hand, new demand puts forward higher requirements for supply upgrading, which will draw and stimulate new supply and pry productivity to jump; on the other hand, new supply based on new quality productivity can provide more high-quality, high-performance, high-reliability, high-security, high-environment-friendly products and services to better meet and create effective demand.
Therefore,    enterprises facing surplus should vigorously develop new quality productive forces, through "reduction replacement" or "equal replacement", with the courage of strong men to completely eliminate backward production capacity, replace advanced production capacity, form new supply and guide new demand, so as to form a high-level dynamic balance between new supply and new demand. Source: China Chemical Industry Daily