PVC: Futures significantly increased positions by more than 126,000 lots, on-site trading was active, and spot prices were slightly adjusted

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April 15, 2024, 4:59 PM

PVC futures analysis: April 15 V2409 contract opening price: 5980, highest price: 5992, lowest price: 5934, position: 717007, settlement price: 5964, yesterday settlement: 5972, down: 8, daily trading volume: 970792 lots, precipitated capital: 2.987 billion, capital inflow: 521 million.

List of comprehensive prices by region: yuan / ton

Area	April 12th	April fifteenth	Rise and fall	Remarks
North China	5440-5530	5450-5530	10/0	Send to cash remittance
East China	5550-5650	5550-5640	0/-10	Cash out of the warehouse
South China	5580-5670	5580-5650	0/-20	Cash out of the warehouse
Northeast China	5470-5620	5420-5620	-50/0	Send to cash remittance
Central China	5550-5600	5550-5600	0/0	Send to cash remittance
Southwest	5440-5600	5440-5600	0/0	Kuti / send to

PVC spot market: China PVC market mainstream transaction prices continue to sort out mainly, the overall fluctuation is not big on Monday. Compared with the valuation, North China rose 10 yuan / ton, East China fell 10 yuan / ton, South China fell 20 yuan / ton, Northeast China fell 50 yuan / ton, and Central China and Southwest China were stable. The ex-factory prices of upstream PVC production enterprises mostly remained stable, with no obvious adjustment, and there were few contracts signed on Monday. The futures market continued to fluctuate in a narrow range, and the change of positions was completed. The spot market price adjustment was small, and the merchants adjusted flexibly according to their own conditions. The price quoted by some traders was slightly lower than that of last Friday, with both the point price and the mouthful price. The change in the basis offer is small, including 05 contract in East China-(250-270), 05 contract in South China-(200), 05 contract in North China-(480-500). Southwest 05 contract-(250-270). On the whole, the supply of high-priced goods is difficult to close the deal, the basis offer has no advantage for the time being, and the actual transaction part is negotiated slightly.

From a futures point of view: & the price of the nbsp; PVC2409 contract opened volatile on Friday night, followed by a slight decline. Prices rebounded after the start of morning trading on Monday, and prices weakened slightly again in the afternoon. 2409 contracts range from 5934 to 5992 throughout the day, with a spread of 58. 05 and an increase of 126634 positions in contracts, with 717007 positions so far. The 2405 contract closed at 5920, with 376778 positions.

PVC Future Forecast:

Spot aspect: PVC2409 contract futures showed a substantial increase of more than 126000 positions. First, the position change 09 contract officially took office, and both sides entered the market. In terms of transaction, there was an increase of 29.4% compared with 26.8%. Retail investors participated in a large number of positions, including an increase of 102667 positions in the top 20 positions and an increase of 74015 in short positions. The trace of changing the position and changing the moon is relatively obvious. The technical level shows that the operation of the futures price is approaching the track, the opening of the three tracks of the Bollinger belt (13,13,2) narrows rapidly, and the MACD line at the daily level shows a dead-forked trend. From the short-term operation point of view, the changed 09 contract will still be in a relatively narrow state of shock. Continue to observe the running range between the upper tracks, and look at the prefix 6 above.

Futures: After the change of positions, the performance of the spot market is still relatively lacklustre, and the spot market offer is still more inclined to the 05 contract, but the sharp decrease in 05 contract positions and the obvious entry of both parties with long and short positions in 09 contract, the replacement of the expected point price still takes some time, so the two cities are still facing certain tests, on the one hand, from the pressure of hedging policies, on the other hand, when the contract month difference is large. It is expected that 09 contract will still bear some pressure in the short term after the end of the contract. There are not many recent variables in the fundamentals of PVC, but it is still difficult for manufacturers or middlemen to feedback shipments. On the outer disk, oil prices rose, supported by tensions in the Middle East. But the International Energy Agency (IEA) bearish global oil demand growth forecast curbs the rise in oil prices. On the whole, the spot market may face some turbulent adjustment in the short term.

PVC spread arbitrage analysis:

Arbitrage Analysis of PVC spread
PVC	Contract price difference	April 12th	April fifteenth	Rate of change
	V2409 collection	5967	5951	-16
	Average spot price in East China	5600	5595	-5
	Average spot price in South China	5625	5615	-10
	PVC2409 basis difference	-367	-356	11
	V2501 collection	6090	6155	65
	V2409-2501 close	-123	-204	-81
	PP2409 collection	7597	7602	5
	Plastic L2409	8369	8410	41
	V--PP basis difference	-1630	-1651	-21
	Vmure-L basis difference of plastics	-2402	-2459	-57

China PVC Index: according to Tuduoduo data, the China calcium Carbide PVC spot Index fell 4.2, or 0.075%, to 5563.89 on April 15. The ethylene method PVC spot index was 5851.26, down 13.52, or 0.211%. The calcium carbide index fell, the ethylene index fell, and the ethylene-calcium carbide index spread was 287.37.

PVC warehouse receipt daily:

Variety	Warehouse / branch warehouse	4.12 warehouse orders	4.15 warehouse orders	change
Polyvinyl chloride	China Reserve shares	1,011	2,041	1,030
	Large-scale reserve	0	240	240
	Guangzhou materials	300	1,090	790
	China Central Reserve Nanjing	711	711	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Cosco sea logistics	1,591	1,591	0
	Zhenjiang Middle and far Sea	198	198	0
	Shanghai Zhongyuan Sea	464	464	0
	Middle and far sea in Jiangyin	929	929	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang International Trade	1,496	1,496	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Peak supply chain	784	784	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Shanghai-Hong Kong logistics	311	311	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangyin Xiefeng	4,542	4,542	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Benniu Port, Changzhou	3,787	3,907	120
Polyvinyl chloride	Pinghu Huarui	642	1,053	411
Polyvinyl chloride	Hangzhou port logistics	64	64	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangsu Zhengsheng	2,515	3,379	864
Polyvinyl chloride	Quick biography of Xiangyu in Shanghai	84	84	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangsu Yanjin	318	518	200
Polyvinyl chloride	Chuanhua mandarin	0	120	120
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang tomorrow (Benniu Port)	0	300	300
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang tomorrow (Zhejiang International Trade)	150	150	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Products Zhongda Chemical Industry (Benniu Port)	0	450	450
Polyvinyl chloride	Sinotrans East China	540	540	0
PVC subtotal		17,835	21,330	3,495
Total		17,835	21,330	3,495