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Polyethylene PE: Crude oil has risen for six consecutive years, there is a strong enthusiasm for spot overreporting, and the price center of gravity has shifted upward

80,496
April 7, 2024, 5:26 PM

Sinopec Inventories: The polyolefin stocks of the two oils were 935,000 tons, an increase of 150,000 tons from the pre-holiday (Wednesday).

Shenhua auction statistics: Today's auction volume is 1050 tons, today's transaction volume is 995 tons, and the auction transaction rate is 94.76%, an increase of 25.83% from yesterday's 68.93%.

plate number

storage points

auction volume

trading volume

starting price

trading range

transaction rate

7042

Baotou Coal Chemical Industry Warehouse

100

100

8200

8310-8320

100.00%

7042

Tongdayuan

300

300

8200

8380-8390

100.00%

7042

Ningmei Wuhan Wutieku

300

295

8200

8200

98.33%

7042

Ningmei Zhejiang Jianfengku

50

0

8340

-

0.00%

7042

Ningmei Qingzhou Sinotrans Warehouse

300

300

8230

8280

100.00%

line total

1050

995

 

 

94.76%

 

 

PE spot market analysis: Today, China's PE market continued its upward trend, with increases ranging from 20 to 50 yuan/ton for various varieties. In terms of price: China's linear mainstream prices range from 8,200 to 8,550 yuan/ton, high-pressure prices range from 9,200 to 9,500 yuan/ton, low-pressure film materials range from 8,200 to 8,650 yuan/ton, and low-pressure wire drawing range from 8,170 to 8,750 yuan/ton. Although futures were suspended and closed on Sunday, the surge in crude oil gave the market a strong enthusiasm for watching and doing long. Holders actively reported higher, and market prices rose further. In terms of petrochemicals, PetroChina Northeast, PetroChina Southwest, PetroChina East, PetroChina East, and Sinopec South China still have increases. Except for the southwest and northwest, the linear ex-factory price of coal companies in other places is as low as 8250 yuan/ton, and the cost of on-site supply continues to push up. Downstream and some middlemen entered the market tentatively to make inquiries, but they were relatively cautious in chasing gains and taking goods. Some purchased appropriate amounts on dips, and more waited and waited for tomorrow's futures to open.

 

PE spot trend forecast: In terms of raw materials: crude oil will further set a new high, and the oil distribution market will enter the US$86 -95 region. The shift in the focus of raw materials has driven up the cost of polyethylene production. Petrochemical policy: Currently, petrochemicals continue to go to the warehouse. At the beginning of the month, the performance of the two markets is still acceptable. There are still upward adjustments in major regions, and the cost of on-site supply is strongly supported. Supply: Lianyungang Petrochemical, Jiutai, Zhongke Refining and Chemical, Hainan Refining and Chemical, and Zhejiang Petrochemical have been suspended until April and May. Recently, new units such as Zhongyuan Petrochemical and Maoming Petrochemical have continued to be suspended for maintenance, and the market supply continues to shrink. In terms of demand, the overall downstream demand is relatively stable, with small overall variables. Under the comprehensive influence, it is expected that the PE market will remain volatile and strong, focusing on the market trend and spot transactions.

Mainstream quotation in PE market: yuan/ton

varieties

regional

April 3

April 7

rise and fall

linear

North China

8260-8300

8300-8350

40/50

East China

8160-8300

8200-8330

40/30

South China

8300-8500

8330-8550

30/50

high-pressure membrane

North China

9200-9220

9200-9250

0/30

East China

9200-9500

9200-9500

0/0

South China

9300-9500

9300-9500

0/0

low-pressure membrane

North China

8180-8430

8200-8450

20/20

East China

8350-8600

8350-8650

0/50

South China

8300-8450

8300-8450

0/0

low pressure wire drawing

North China

8150-8550

8170-8550

20/0

East China

8450-8650

8450-8650

0/0

South China

8500-8750

8500-8750

0/0

 

 

China's PE Index: According to Tuduo's data, China's LLDPE spot index on April 7 was 8343, up 13, or 0.16%;LDPE film spot index was 9325, up 37, or 0.40%;HDPE spot index was 8456, up 19, or 0.23%.