PVC: Futures prices are closed, the spot market is slightly calm, and some have adjusted slightly

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April 7, 2024, 4:55 PM

PVC futures analysis: closed on Sunday.

List of comprehensive prices by region: yuan / ton

Area	April 3rd	April 7th	Rise and fall	Remarks
North China	5470-5550	5470-5550	0/0	Send to cash remittance
East China	5520-5620	5540-5630	20/10	Cash out of the warehouse
South China	5580-5640	5610-5660	30/20	Cash out of the warehouse
Northeast China	5520-5640	5520-5640	0/0	Send to cash remittance
Central China	5500-5540	5500-5540	0/0	Send to cash remittance
Southwest	5440-5600	5440-5600	0/0	Kuti / send to

PVC spot market: China PVC market mainstream transaction price fluctuation, Sunday spot market turnover is not good. The comparison of valuation shows that North China is stable, East China is up 10-20 yuan / ton, South China is 20-30 yuan / ton, and Northeast, Central China and Southwest China are stable. The factory prices of upstream PVC production enterprises do not bid on Sunday, and there are not many contracts signed in the first generation, and the market is waiting for the opening trend of Monday. Although Sunday is a working day, the futures market is closed, so the spot market performance is relatively calm. On the one hand, the production enterprises wait and see the price, on the other hand, the spot market fluctuation is small, and the market quotation is limited, a small amount of a mouthful price. However, there are still some merchants with poor shipments whose prices are slightly lower than those on Wednesday, and the futures prices are suspended, so there are no base quotations in various regions today. On the whole, there are some low-priced goods in the spot market, and the transaction is mainly concentrated in the low range. Downstream procurement enthusiasm is not high, the transaction in the market is weak.

From a futures perspective: is closed on Sundays.

PVC Future Forecast:

Spot aspect: After the Qingming Festival holiday, the spot market is relatively calm during the period and today, with few bids from production enterprises, and small and flexible adjustments by spot market merchants according to their own shipping rhythms. With the passage of time, on the one hand, changing positions for months is on a daily basis, on the other hand, continuous low horizontal finishing leads to the poor operation of the futures market, thus affecting the operating mentality of the spot market. Even the current highs of the two cities may lose expectations in the low-level negotiations. At present, there is still a certain contradiction between supply and demand, especially the high inventory is still an obvious constraint of the two cities, strong supply and weak demand, so the performance of the two cities is not good. In the outer disk, prices in the international crude oil futures market continued to rise, as geopolitical tensions intensified concerns about supply tensions in the global oil market. At the same time, the market continues to pay attention to the oil supply shortages that may be caused by production cuts in OPEC+ oil-producing countries. On the whole, the spot market price of PVC is still low and narrow in the short term.

PVC spread arbitrage analysis:

Arbitrage Analysis of PVC spread
PVC	Contract price difference	April 2nd	April 3rd	Rate of change
	V2405 collection	5793	5768	-25
	Average spot price in East China	5575	5570	-5
	Average spot price in South China	5620	5610	-10
	PVC2405 basis difference	-218	-198	20
	V2409 collection	5933	5905	-28
	V2405-2409 close	-140	-137	3
	PP2405 collection	7560	7597	37
	Plastic L2405 collection	8293	8319	26
	V--PP basis difference	-1767	-1829	-62
	Vmure-L basis difference of plastics	-2500	-2551	-51

China PVC Index: according to Tudou data, the spot index of China's calcium carbide PVC rose 9.99, or 0.18%, to 5566.38 on April 7. The ethylene method PVC spot index was 5852.16, down 11.45%, with a range of 0.195%. The calcium carbide method index rose, the ethylene method index decreased, and the ethylene-calcium carbide index spread was 285.78.

PVC warehouse receipt daily:

Variety	Warehouse / branch warehouse	4.2 warehouse order volume	4.3 warehouse order volume	change
Polyvinyl chloride	China Reserve shares	0	276	276
	China Central Reserve Nanjing	0	276	276
Polyvinyl chloride	Cosco sea logistics	249	490	241
	Shanghai Zhongyuan Sea	120	190	70
	Middle and far sea in Jiangyin	129	300	171
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang International Trade	0	700	700
Polyvinyl chloride	Peak supply chain	0	280	280
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangyin Xiefeng	0	2,402	2,402
Polyvinyl chloride	Benniu Port, Changzhou	944	1,505	561
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangsu Zhengsheng	1,362	2,515	1,153
Polyvinyl chloride	Quick biography of Xiangyu in Shanghai	0	84	84
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangsu Yanjin	198	198	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Sinotrans East China	0	200	200
PVC subtotal		2,753	8,650	5,897
Total		2,753	8,650	5,897