PVC: Futures prices have reduced positions and left the market more flat, some have stopped losses, and the spot continues to adjust within a narrow range

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April 3, 2024, 4:48 PM

PVC futures analysis: April 3 V2405 contract opening price: 5793, highest price: 5816, lowest price: 5766, position: 735903, settlement price: 5798, yesterday settlement: 5804, down: 6, daily trading volume: 580536 lots, precipitated capital: 2.971 billion, capital outflow: 105 million.

List of comprehensive prices by region: yuan / ton

Area	April 2nd	April 3rd	Rise and fall	Remarks
North China	5480-5550	5470-5550	-10/0	Send to cash remittance
East China	5530-5620	5520-5620	-10/0	Cash out of the warehouse
South China	5590-5650	5580-5640	-10/-10	Cash out of the warehouse
Northeast China	5520-5640	5520-5640	0/0	Send to cash remittance
Central China	5500-5540	5500-5540	0/0	Send to cash remittance
Southwest	5440-5600	5440-5600	0/0	Kuti / send to

PVC spot market: China PVC market mainstream transaction price fluctuation is small, each region continues to operate in a narrow range. Compared with the valuation, it fell by 10 yuan / ton in North China, 10 yuan / ton in East China, 10 yuan / ton in South China, and stable in Northeast, Central and Southwest China. There is no obvious adjustment in the ex-factory price of upstream PVC production enterprises, most of them are stable quotations, and the first-generation contracts are mainly based on basic quantity. Futures prices continue to be low and narrow, traders offer little change than yesterday, but there are some low-price sources in the market, transactions are mainly concentrated in the low range. The basis has a tendency to expand, including East China basis offer 05 contract-(220-250-270), South China 05 contract-(150-200-230), North 05 contract-(480-500-530), Southwest 05 contract-(220-250). Downstream procurement enthusiasm is not high, although the point price supply and a price offer are available, but the transaction in the market is weak.

From the perspective of futures: & the night price of nbsp; PVC2405 contract is mainly arranged in a narrow range, and the fluctuation range of futures price is small. After the beginning of early trading, the volatility of the futures price still did not change significantly, still dominated by a narrow adjustment, and the late afternoon weakening was relatively obvious, and the late decline did not stop. 2405 contracts range from 5766 to 5816 throughout the day, with a spread of 50,05.05 and a reduction of 22660 positions, with 735903 positions so far. The 2409 contract closed at 5905, with 416874 positions.

PVC Future Forecast:

Futures: The operation of the PVC2405 contract futures price continues to be low and narrow, but the difference compared with the previous period lies in the decline of the late trading price. There is no night trading on Wednesday, April 3, when the Qingming Festival comes. Therefore, the market shows the market of reducing positions and leaving the market, and the trading is 23.1% flat compared with 25.7% more flat. In the trend of low futures price operation, the increase of Duoping is more inclined to consider more single stop losses. The technical level shows that the three-track openings of the Bolin belt (13, 13, 2) have all turned downward, and a short trend has been formed at present. Although the operation of the futures price is still dominated by low and narrow finishing, the weak pattern continues. In the short term, continue to observe the operating range of the low range between 5750 and 5850.

Spot aspect: before the Qingming Festival holiday, the turnover in the spot market is light, the state of low and narrow arrangement continues, and the supply of low-priced goods in the spot market has increased, and production enterprises and middlemen are still facing greater sales pressure. At present, the start-up load of PVC plant is stable, but the production pressure of chlor-alkali enterprises is large, the loss of single product PVC is obvious, and the trend of caustic soda in the two major chlor-alkali products is the same in recent weeks, which is mainly 50-100yuan / ton, which shows that the chlor-alkali market continues to be weak. In the outer disk, the price of international crude oil futures market continued to rise as Russia and Ukraine launched more attacks on each other's energy infrastructure, leading to a rise in geopolitical risks. Israel's attack on the Iranian consulate in Syria also raised concerns about the conflict in the Middle East. On the whole, the spot market price of PVC is still low and narrow in the short term.

PVC spread arbitrage analysis:

Arbitrage Analysis of PVC spread
PVC	Contract price difference	April 2nd	April 3rd	Rate of change
	V2405 collection	5793	5768	-25
	Average spot price in East China	5575	5570	-5
	Average spot price in South China	5620	5610	-10
	PVC2405 basis difference	-218	-198	20
	V2409 collection	5933	5905	-28
	V2405-2409 close	-140	-137	3
	PP2405 collection	7560	7597	37
	Plastic L2405 collection	8293	8319	26
	V--PP basis difference	-1767	-1829	-62
	Vmure-L basis difference of plastics	-2500	-2551	-51

China PVC Index: according to Tuduoduo data, the China calcium Carbide PVC spot Index fell 4.73, or 0.085%, to 5556.39 on April 3. The PVC spot index of ethylene method is 5863.61, up 0%, the range of 0%, the index of calcium carbide method is down, the index of ethylene method is stable, and the price difference between ethylene method and calcium carbide method is 307.22.

PVC warehouse receipt daily:

Variety	Warehouse / branch warehouse	4.2 warehouse order volume	4.3 warehouse order volume	change
Polyvinyl chloride	China Reserve shares	0	276	276
	China Central Reserve Nanjing	0	276	276
Polyvinyl chloride	Cosco sea logistics	249	490	241
	Shanghai Zhongyuan Sea	120	190	70
	Middle and far sea in Jiangyin	129	300	171
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang International Trade	0	700	700
Polyvinyl chloride	Peak supply chain	0	280	280
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangyin Xiefeng	0	2,402	2,402
Polyvinyl chloride	Benniu Port, Changzhou	944	1,505	561
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangsu Zhengsheng	1,362	2,515	1,153
Polyvinyl chloride	Quick biography of Xiangyu in Shanghai	0	84	84
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangsu Yanjin	198	198	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Sinotrans East China	0	200	200
PVC subtotal		2,753	8,650	5,897
Total		2,753	8,650	5,897