Recently, ICIS released the March Asian Petrochemical Price report. Asian petrochemical prices are expected to be mixed in March, according to the report. On the one hand, the market is worried that the pace of demand recovery after the Chinese Lunar New year is not as fast as expected. On the other hand, as some petrochemical products in Asia will usher in a peak of overhaul in the second quarter, supply will be further tightened.
   ICIS said 55 per cent of the 31 major petrochemical commodities covered by ICIS's Asian price forecasts were expected to rise month-on-month in March, led by butadiene, styrene-butadiene rubber (SBR) and acrylonitrile-butadiene-styrene copolymers (ABS). At the same time, it is expected that the average price of 45% of products will decline month-on-month this month, such as pure benzene, ethylene and so on. In addition, many downstream Chinese plastic processing companies will continue to digest the inventory of distributors and producers this month. Affected by this, the price of polyolefin in China is expected to fall slightly in March.
   ICIS said that at present, international market watchers are closely watching China's economic growth trend. The agency pointed out that given the high degree of uncertainty in the global economy in 2024, market wait-and-see sentiment is rising, especially on follow-up policies and measures to boost market consumption and tap new drivers of growth. Judging from the current international market sentiment, the international market has confidence in the growth potential of China's consumer market.
   specific products, ICIS believes that butadiene and related products will lead the rise. Sun Lijia, an Asia butadiene analyst at ICIS, said that according to the recent announcement, the planned overhaul of butadiene units in 2024 is expected to peak in March to May. Due to supply constraints, butadiene prices in Asia are expected to continue until April. She said that the price of butadiene in Asia began to rise in January 2024, and the average price of butadiene in northeast China rose to $1224 / ton in February, up 26% from the average price of $971 / ton in December 2023. In addition, due to the sharp rise in the price of major raw materials, the prices of SBR and ABS, the main derivatives of butadiene, are also expected to rise in March.
  , however, ICIS believes that the rise in butadiene prices is not enough to curb the increased bearish momentum in the northeast ethylene and propylene market in March. The bearish reason is that weak demand in the spot market superimposes the trend of increased supply. In addition, the Southeast Asian market is affected by accidental parking maintenance, resulting in a tight supply, and it is expected that the trend of ethylene and propylene in Southeast Asia will be opposite to that in Northeast Asia in March.
   's profits from producers that outsource ethylene to produce styrene and ethylene oxide have been squeezed by the rise in ethylene prices in February. The plant that overlays some of the purchased ethylene to produce styrene and polyvinyl chloride is scheduled to be overhauled in March, and ICIS expects ethylene prices in Northeast Asia to fall this month. At the same time, the propylene market will be very abundant in March, and with the restart of some propane dehydrogenation units, ICIS propylene analyst Zhou Ying believes that more than 3 million tons / year of propylene capacity is expected to be added to the market from March to April. She predicts that the weakening prices of ethylene and propylene will drag down the operating rate of cracking units in Northeast Asia in the second quarter.
   in addition, due to the improvement in profit margins of naphtha-to-ethylene cracking units in Asia in February, the operating rate of some Korean cracking units in March is expected to be higher than that in February. At least in the theoretical value, the monthly average olefin profit margin of the naphtha cracking process in Northeast Asia achieved a turnround in February. The downward trend in olefin prices may put pressure on the operating rate of methanol-to-olefin units in the short term. Affected by planned overhaul and production cuts, the average operating rate of methanol-to-olefin units is expected to fall to 73% in March, and the reduction in methanol demand triggered by this trend will also dampen methanol market sentiment. Source: China Chemical Industry Daily