PVC: The futures price plunged sharply in the end of the session, reduced positions and opened slightly higher, and the spot market was performing poorly.

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March 26, 2024, 4:15 PM

PVC futures analysis: March 26th V2405 contract opening price: 5882, highest price: 5908, lowest price: 5810, position: 813024, settlement price: 5877, yesterday settlement: 5908, down: 31, daily trading volume: 680748 lots, precipitated capital: 3.311 billion, capital outflow: 83.69 million.

List of comprehensive prices by region: yuan / ton

Area	March twenty _ fifth	March 26th	Rise and fall	Remarks
North China	5530-5600	5500-5550	-30/-50	Send to cash remittance
East China	5580-5690	5520-5660	-60/-30	Cash out of the warehouse
South China	5650-5700	5620-5670	-30/-30	Cash out of the warehouse
Northeast China	5550-5690	5550-5690	0/0	Send to cash remittance
Central China	5610-5640	5550-5590	-60/-50	Send to cash remittance
Southwest	5490-5650	5460-5600	-30/-50	Kuti / send to

PVC spot market: China PVC market mainstream transaction prices continue to decline slightly, the spot market is not good. Compared with the valuation, it fell by 30-50 yuan / ton in North China, 30-60 yuan / ton in East China, 30 yuan / ton in South China, stable in Northeast China, 50-60 yuan / ton in Central China and 30-50 yuan / ton in Southwest China. Upstream PVC production enterprises factory price reduction of 20-30-50 yuan / ton, some enterprises stable price wait and see. The volatility of the futures price is weaker, especially in the afternoon, the spot market point price supply and a mouthful offer coexist, but a high offer has no reference significance. After the futures price goes down, the spot price advantage is highlighted, and the basis offer is expanded and adjusted. Among them, East China basis offer 05 contract-(240-290), South China 05 contract-(200-240), North 05 contract-(500-570) Southwest 05 contract-(240-300). On the whole, after the futures price fell, the spot market turnover improved slightly, the downstream mentality was cautious to meet the rigid demand for bargain, and the hanging orders were mostly concentrated below 5850 points.

Futures point of view: PVC2405 contract night futures prices continue to fluctuate mainly in a narrow range, and the range of volatility is relatively small. After the start of morning trading, the shock gradually weakened, positions were reduced one after another, and the price dived obviously in the afternoon close a few minutes after the close. 2405 contracts range from 5810 to 5908 throughout the day, with a spread of 98. 05. The contract reduced its position by 11482 hands and has held 813024 positions so far. The 2409 contract closed at 5954, with 327819 positions.

PVC Future Forecast:

Futures: & the operation of nbsp; PVC2405 contract futures continued its downtrend, showing a four-point decline from the high, down 238 points from the high of 6048 to the current low of 5810. Today's trading continued to show a reduced position, in terms of transactions, which opened 21.5% compared with 20.8% more. But duo ping increased, of which duo ping 27.4% vs. air level 22.2%. The technical level shows that the opening of the three tracks of the Bollinger belt (13, 13, 2) opens, the low point of the futures price approaches the position of the lower track, and shows a fast diving pattern in late trading. The KD line and MACD line at the daily level show a dead cross trend, and the low point of the futures price even begins to approach the post-holiday low range. Overall, the operation of futures prices in the short term continues to test the low range of 5800-5850.

Spot: futures late-day diving caught the spot market off guard. First of all, the rigid demand of downstream products enterprises is mostly concentrated in the spot price below 5850, and the diving at the end of the day makes most of the spot price become a deal, so although the transaction has improved, the diving in the late market suddenly weakens the spot market atmosphere. Considering the current time point, the 05 contract and the market in May are expected to be discouraged by the downward price, and as the mood fades, even if there is a reduction in maintenance supply, it is not expected to make a better reversal of the market. At present, the fundamentals of PVC are still weak, so the futures market lacks sufficient support, which also makes the spot market always face sales pressure. In the outer disk, international oil prices closed higher because of production restrictions ordered by the Russian government and attacks on energy infrastructure in Russia and Ukraine, but the UN request for a cease-fire in Gaza helped limit the increase to some extent. Overall, the PVC spot market operation or low-level consolidation in the short term.

PVC spread arbitrage analysis:

Arbitrage Analysis of PVC spread
PVC	Contract price difference	March twenty _ fifth	March 26th	Rate of change
	V2405 collection	5881	5817	-64
	Average spot price in East China	5635	5590	-45
	Average spot price in South China	5675	5645	-30
	PVC2405 basis difference	-246	-227	19
	V2409 collection	6031	5954	-77
	V2405-2409 close	-150	-137	13
	PP2405 collection	7506	7497	-9
	Plastic L2405 collection	8219	8213	-6
	V--PP basis difference	-1625	-1680	-55
	Vmure-L basis difference of plastics	-2338	-2396	-58

China PVC Index: according to Tuduoduo data, the spot index of China's calcium carbide PVC fell 38.67, or 0.688%, to 5582.69 on March 26. The PVC spot index of ethylene method was 5891.03, down 13.62%, with a range of 0.211%. The calcium carbide index fell, the ethylene index fell, and the ethylene-calcium carbide index spread was 308.34.

PVC warehouse receipt daily:

Variety	Warehouse / branch warehouse	3.25 warehouse orders	3.26 warehouse orders	change
Polyvinyl chloride	China Reserve shares	1,254	1,254	0
	China Central Reserve Nanjing	1,254	1,254	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Cosco sea logistics	522	184	-338
	Zhenjiang Middle and far Sea	522	184	-338
Polyvinyl chloride	Peak supply chain	1,988	1,988	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangyin Xiefeng	1,632	1,632	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Benniu Port, Changzhou	512	311	-201
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangsu Zhengsheng	1,070	1,070	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Changxing, Zhejiang	220	220	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangsu Yanjin	44	44	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Xiamen Xiangyu (Benniu Port)	41	0	-41
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang tomorrow (Benniu Port)	1	0	-1
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang tomorrow (Zhejiang International Trade)	114	113	-1
Polyvinyl chloride	Products Zhongda Chemical Industry (Benniu Port)	241	241	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Products Zhongda Chemical Industry (Railway Changxing)	249	249	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Yongan Capital (Benniu Port)	80	80	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Sino-Thai Duojing (Zhejiang International Trade)	1,238	1,238	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Sinotrans East China	1,388	1,388	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Tiantai International Trade (Benniu Port)	10	10	0
PVC subtotal		10,604	10,022	-582
Total		10,604	10,022	-582