PVC: Futures prices fell below the mid-track position, falling three consecutive times since the high, and the focus of the spot market moved downward

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March 25, 2024, 4:47 PM

PVC futures analysis: March 25th V2405 contract opening price: 5938, highest price: 5946, lowest price: 5873, position: 824506, settlement price: 5908, yesterday settlement: 5961, down: 53, daily trading volume: 807262 lots, precipitated capital: 3.394 billion, capital outflow: 90.28 million.

List of comprehensive prices by region: yuan / ton

Area	March 22nd	March twenty _ fifth	Rise and fall	Remarks
North China	5580-5640	5530-5600	-50/-40	Send to cash remittance
East China	5630-5720	5580-5690	-50/-30	Cash out of the warehouse
South China	5680-5750	5650-5700	-30/-50	Cash out of the warehouse
Northeast China	5550-5700	5550-5690	0/-10	Send to cash remittance
Central China	5610-5660	5610-5640	0/-20	Send to cash remittance
Southwest	5510-5680	5490-5650	-20/-30	Kuti / send to

PVC spot market: China PVC market mainstream transaction prices weakened at the beginning of the week, the spot market atmosphere is not good. Compared with the valuation, it fell by 40-50 yuan / ton in North China, 30-50 yuan / ton in East China, 10 yuan / ton in South China, 20 yuan / ton in Northeast China, 20 yuan / ton in Central China and 20-30 yuan / ton in Southwest China. Upstream PVC production enterprises factory prices down 10-50 yuan / ton, some enterprises continue to stabilize prices wait and see. The downward price of futures continued to weaken obviously, and the price quotation part of the spot market traders was slightly lower than that of last Friday. After the futures price went down, the price advantage of the spot market basis offer showed, both the point price source and the one-mouth price offer were available, but there were not many price inquiries. Most of them are inclined to the basis inquiry, including 05 contract in East China-(250), 05 contract in South China-(200), 05 contract in North China-(580). Southwest 05 contract-(300). After the futures price goes down, the lower order purchasing of downstream products enterprises, the spot transaction atmosphere has improved, but the downstream order price is generally on the low side.

From a futures point of view: & the price of the nbsp; PVC2405 contract fluctuated in a narrow range on Friday night trading, and the direction of the price was not clear. Prices fell slightly after the start of morning trading on Monday, and further weakened in the afternoon, falling below 5900 in intraday trading, which is relatively obvious as a whole. 2405 contracts range from 5873 to 5946 throughout the day, with a spread of 73. 05. The contract reduced its position by 13806 positions and has held 824506 positions so far. The 2409 contract closed at 6031, with 314528 positions.

PVC Future Forecast:

Futures: & the operation of the nbsp; PVC2405 contract futures fell below the 5900 position, and the operating range of the futures price, as we expected, continued to weaken below the mid-track position. The technical level shows that the opening of the three tracks of the Bolin belt (13, 13, 2) turns downward, the KD line at the daily line level shows a dead cross, and the futures price falls from the high point to the triple negative point, and has a large downward range from the high point 6048 to the present. At the beginning of the iteration, there is an inverted V-shaped trend, and today's market shows a slight increase in the number of positions leaving the market, and the empty opening is 23.4% compared with 20.0% more. On the whole, the operation of the futures price in the short term may continue to show the trend of winding the middle track, and continue to observe the performance in the low range of 5850-5900. Although there are downward expectations, there is not much room for expected.

Spot: & the downward price of nbsp; futures in the two markets has improved the transaction of the spot market to a certain extent. The spot market mainly buys down but does not buy up. After the futures price goes down, the spot market is active, but it is also limited to rigid demand. Speculative demand has returned to calm after a brief rise in the previous process, and the overall environment is slightly weaker. At present, the two cities of PVC continue to test the low range, the spot market turnover is light, whether upstream production enterprises or middlemen feedback are poor delivery rhythm. Therefore, the spot market is still facing greater pressure. On the outer disk, international oil prices closed lower as the possibility of a ceasefire in Gaza softened oil prices, while the European war and the reduction in the number of US drilling rigs eased the decline in oil prices. At the same time, the stronger dollar is also putting pressure on oil prices. On the whole, the pace of slight adjustment in the spot market remains unchanged in the short term, and it does not have a clear direction at present.

PVC spread arbitrage analysis:

Arbitrage Analysis of PVC spread
PVC	Contract price difference	March 22nd	March twenty _ fifth	Rate of change
	V2405 collection	5938	5881	-57
	Average spot price in East China	5675	5635	-40
	Average spot price in South China	5715	5675	-40
	PVC2405 basis difference	-263	-246	17
	V2409 collection	6087	6031	-56
	V2405-2409 close	-149	-150	-1
	PP2405 collection	7533	7506	-27
	Plastic L2405 collection	8238	8219	-19
	V--PP basis difference	-1595	-1625	-30
	Vmure-L basis difference of plastics	-2300	-2338	-38

China PVC Index: according to Tuduoduo data, the China calcium Carbide PVC spot Index fell 33.85% to 5621.36 on March 25, a range of 0.599%. The ethylene PVC spot index was 5904.65, down 17.66, or 0.298%. The calcium carbide index fell, the ethylene index fell, and the ethylene-calcium carbide index spread was 283.29.

PVC warehouse receipt daily:

Variety	Warehouse / branch warehouse	3.22 warehouse orders	3.25 warehouse orders	change
Polyvinyl chloride	China Reserve shares	1,325	1,254	-71
	China Central Reserve Nanjing	1,325	1,254	-71
Polyvinyl chloride	Cosco sea logistics	1,706	522	-1,184
	Zhenjiang Middle and far Sea	1,366	522	-844
	Middle and far sea in Jiangyin	340	0	-340
Polyvinyl chloride	Peak supply chain	1,988	1,988	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangyin Xiefeng	1,632	1,632	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Benniu Port, Changzhou	7,587	512	-7,075
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangsu Zhengsheng	1,070	1,070	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Changxing, Zhejiang	220	220	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangsu Yanjin	44	44	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Xiamen Xiangyu (Benniu Port)	300	41	-259
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang tomorrow (Benniu Port)	1	1	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang tomorrow (Zhejiang International Trade)	114	114	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Products Zhongda Chemical Industry (Benniu Port)	241	241	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Products Zhongda Chemical Industry (Railway Changxing)	249	249	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Yongan Capital (Benniu Port)	80	80	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Sino-Thai Duojing (Zhejiang International Trade)	1,238	1,238	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Sinotrans East China	1,394	1,388	-6
Polyvinyl chloride	Tiantai International Trade (Benniu Port)	10	10	0
PVC subtotal		19,199	10,604	-8,595
Total		19,199	10,604	-8,595