PVC: The rise in futures prices came to an abrupt end, encountered a correction and left the market for short-term profits, and the spot market weakened and went downward.

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March 22, 2024, 5:02 PM

PVC futures analysis: March 22nd V2405 contract opening price: 5977, highest price: 6003, lowest price: 5925, position: 838312, settlement price: 5961, yesterday settlement: 6017, down: 56, daily trading volume: 893373 lots, precipitated capital: 3.485 billion, capital outflow: 155 million.

List of comprehensive prices by region: yuan / ton

Area	March 21	March 22nd	Rise and fall	Remarks
North China	5590-5670	5580-5640	-10/-30	Send to cash remittance
East China	5690-5790	5630-5720	-60/-70	Cash out of the warehouse
South China	5750-5790	5680-5750	-70/-40	Cash out of the warehouse
Northeast China	5550-5700	5550-5700	0/0	Send to cash remittance
Central China	5650-5700	5610-5660	-40/-40	Send to cash remittance
Southwest	5530-5720	5510-5680	-20/-40	Kuti / send to

PVC spot market: China PVC market mainstream transaction price center of gravity has moved down, the spot market atmosphere has weakened. Compared with the valuation, it fell by 10-30 yuan / ton in North China, 60-70 yuan / ton in East China, 40-70 yuan / ton in South China, stable in Northeast China, 40 yuan / ton in Central China and 20-40 yuan / ton in Southwest China. Upstream PVC production enterprises factory prices began to reduce 20-50 yuan / ton, but there are still some enterprises to maintain a stable wait-and-see, coinciding with the Friday generation of contracts signed not much. The price of futures fell significantly on the spot market, and the price offered by traders in the spot market was generally lower than that of yesterday, and the prices of some urgent delivery sources in the South China market were slightly lower, and some actual orders were still slightly negotiated. After the futures price went down, the spot price advantage increased, and the basis offer changed little, including 05 contract in East China-(250), 05 contract in South China-(200), 05 contract in North China-(540-580), and 05 contract in Southwest China-(300). After the futures price goes down, some downstream products enterprises have a rigid demand for replenishment at low order prices, while some wait and see temporarily.

From the perspective of futures: & the fluctuation range of night futures price of nbsp; PVC2405 contract is relatively narrow, and the fluctuation direction of futures price is unknown. After the beginning of morning trading, the price fell obviously, the intraday returned to the previous range, and the afternoon price fluctuated in the low range of the whole day. 2405 the contract fluctuates from 5925 to 6003 throughout the day, with a spread of 78. 05. The contract reduced its position by 30470 hands, and has held 838312 positions so far. The 2409 contract closed at 6087, with 308956 positions.

PVC Future Forecast:

Futures: & the operation of the nbsp; PVC2405 contract futures price dropped significantly from the high price, from the upper position down to the middle rail position, the technical level shows that the Bollinger belt (13, 13, 2) three-track opening is still divergent, but the downward price gives up a continuous increase, leading to re-weakening, and the daily KD line ends a short golden fork trend, and the two lines begin to cross. The market showed a state of reducing positions, partly because it happened to be out of the market on Friday, and on the other hand, it has been profitable since yesterday. The correction of futures prices has hit the confidence of some participants. In the short term, we think that the operation of futures prices will observe the entanglement performance of the middle track and observe the performance in the range of 5880-5980.

Spot aspect: & the operation of the two cities' prices in the nbsp; period does not show persistence in the high range. We have been referring to the persistence of the high range in our recent forecasts. Today's Friday session, the prices of the two cities have fallen back to the previous range, giving up the gains of Wednesday and Thursday. The overall commodity performance closed at midday, while the main contract of Chinese futures fell more and rose less. Rubber fell by more than 4%. NR fell by more than 3%, lithium carbonate by more than 2%, and Shanghai silver, Shanghai nickel, bean 2, soybean meal, rapeseed meal, red jujube and industrial silicon by more than 1.5%. PVC also weakened, and the brief speculative demand in the spot market came to an abrupt end. International oil prices closed lower on the outer disk, affected by weak US gasoline demand data and reports of a draft UN resolution calling for a ceasefire in Gaza. As a whole, the PVC spot market may return to the stage of pre-shock consolidation in the short term, and the price fluctuations may be relatively limited.

PVC spread arbitrage analysis:

Arbitrage Analysis of PVC spread
PVC	Contract price difference	March 21	March 22nd	Rate of change
	V2405 collection	5984	5938	-46
	Average spot price in East China	5740	5675	-65
	Average spot price in South China	5770	5715	-55
	PVC2405 basis difference	-244	-263	-19
	V2409 collection	6126	6087	-39
	V2405-2409 close	-142	-149	-7
	PP2405 collection	7593	7533	-60
	Plastic L2405 collection	8341	8238	-103
	V--PP basis difference	-1609	-1595	14
	Vmure-L basis difference of plastics	-2357	-2300	57

China PVC Index: according to Tuduoduo data, the China calcium Carbide PVC spot Index fell 43.28, or 0.759%, to 5655.21 on March 22. The ethylene PVC spot index was 5922.31, down 25.72, with a range of 0.432%. The calcium carbide index fell, the ethylene index fell, and the ethylene-calcium carbide index spread was 267.1.

PVC warehouse receipt daily:

Variety	Warehouse / branch warehouse	3.21 warehouse receipts	3.22 warehouse orders	change
Polyvinyl chloride	China Reserve shares	1,325	1,325	0
	China Central Reserve Nanjing	1,325	1,325	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Cosco sea logistics	1,726	1,706	-20
	Zhenjiang Middle and far Sea	1,372	1,366	-6
	Middle and far sea in Jiangyin	354	340	-14
Polyvinyl chloride	Peak supply chain	1,988	1,988	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangyin Xiefeng	1,837	1,632	-205
Polyvinyl chloride	Benniu Port, Changzhou	7,927	7,587	-340
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangsu Zhengsheng	1,070	1,070	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Quick biography of Xiangyu in Shanghai	84	0	-84
Polyvinyl chloride	Changxing, Zhejiang	220	220	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangsu Yanjin	44	44	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Xiamen Xiangyu (Benniu Port)	300	300	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang tomorrow (Benniu Port)	1	1	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang tomorrow (Zhejiang International Trade)	120	114	-6
Polyvinyl chloride	Products Zhongda Chemical Industry (Benniu Port)	241	241	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Products Zhongda Chemical Industry (Railway Changxing)	249	249	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Yongan Capital (Benniu Port)	80	80	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Sino-Thai Duojing (Zhejiang International Trade)	1,238	1,238	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Sinotrans East China	1,394	1,394	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Tiantai International Trade (Benniu Port)	378	10	-368
PVC subtotal		20,222	19,199	-1,023
Total		20,222	19,199	-1,023