PVC: The futures price successfully broke through the prefix 6, the bullish sentiment was high, and the spot market continued to rise

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March 20, 2024, 4:23 PM

PVC futures analysis: March 20 V2405 contract opening price: 5959, highest price: 6041, lowest price: 5944, position: 889626, settlement price: 5999, yesterday settlement: 5939, up: 60, daily trading volume: 988376 lots, precipitated capital: 3.753 billion, capital inflow: 194 million.

List of comprehensive prices by region: yuan / ton

Area	March nineteenth	March 20th	Rise and fall	Remarks
North China	5540-5630	5590-5670	50/40	Send to cash remittance
East China	5620-5710	5700-5790	80/80	Cash out of the warehouse
South China	5640-5730	5710-5790	70/60	Cash out of the warehouse
Northeast China	5500-5650	5550-5700	50/50	Send to cash remittance
Central China	5590-5650	5650-5700	60/50	Send to cash remittance
Southwest	5510-5700	5530-5720	20/20	Kuti / send to

PVC spot market: China PVC market mainstream transaction prices continue to rise, spot market sentiment continues to improve. Compared with the valuation, North China rose 40-50 yuan / ton, East China 80 yuan / ton, South China 60-70 yuan / ton, Northeast China 50 yuan / ton, Central China 50-60 yuan / ton, and Southwest China 20 yuan / ton. The ex-factory price of upstream PVC production enterprises rose by 40-50 yuan / ton, while the more radical enterprises increased by 60-70 yuan / ton, but there are still some enterprises that wait and see to stabilize prices, and there are different mentalities in the upstream. Futures run mainly on the strong side, and prices further break through. The spot market traders offered higher prices than yesterday, and the supply of low-priced goods decreased. With the rise of futures, the point-price offer advantage decreased, but there was still a basis offer, including 05 contracts in East China-(280). South China 05 contract-(200), North 05 contract-(550), Southwest 05 contract-(300). After the prices of the two cities have risen, some traders have the behavior of receiving goods, and the purchasing enthusiasm of the lower reaches is low, and some of them wait and see temporarily.

From the perspective of futures: & the night price of the nbsp; PVC2405 contract is mainly arranged in a narrow range, and the fluctuation range of the futures price is relatively small. At the beginning of early trading, prices rose all the way up, successfully breaking through the 6-word peak and hitting 6041, and afternoon prices were sorted out above 6000 until the end of the day. 2405 contracts range from 5944 to 6041 throughout the day, with a spread of 97. 05 contracts with an increase of 35104 positions and 889626 positions so far. The 2409 contract closed at 6172, with 269936 positions.

PVC Future Forecast:

Futures: & the operation of the nbsp; PVC2405 contract futures price successfully broke through the prefix of 6, the highest point of 6041. And the market appeared to increase the price of the upward phenomenon, long entry is relatively obvious, in terms of transaction, the opening of 27.2% more than the empty opening of 23.1% is in an absolutely suppressed situation. The technical level shows that the opening of the three tracks of the Bollinger belt (13, 13, 2) is obvious, and the price goes up further after it has been put on the orbit, and the trend of the all-day price shows a cross. The KD line and MACD line at the daily line level show a golden fork trend, because the relative fluctuation range of the recent futures price has narrowed, so the technical level changes greatly after the range of today's futures price is slightly expanded. In the short term, the operation of futures prices continues to observe the position on the track and the persistence of the high range of 6000-6050.

Spot aspect: & the continuous upward price of nbsp; futures in the two markets, especially today's futures prices break through the track to maintain further push up, which triggered part of the speculative demand in the spot market, and some traders are more active in receiving goods than in the previous period. But the downstream demand performance is relatively light, and the wait-and-see mentality is in the majority. PVC fundamentals in which calcium carbide prices rose slightly 50 yuan / ton, the cost port slightly supported, coupled with Formosa Plastics prices rose slightly yesterday. At present, there are not many variables in the supply and demand level, especially after the release of real estate data, the corresponding downstream demand enterprises maintain a wait-and-see attitude towards the upward price of the two cities. International oil prices continued to close higher, reaching their highest level since late October, as traders assessed how Ukraine's recent attack on Russian refineries would affect global oil supplies. On the whole, in the short term, the PVC spot market observes the stability of market prices after the rise.

PVC spread arbitrage analysis:

Arbitrage Analysis of PVC spread
PVC	Contract price difference	March nineteenth	March 20th	Rate of change
	V2405 collection	5951	6027	76
	Average spot price in East China	5665	5745	80
	Average spot price in South China	5685	5750	65
	PVC2405 basis difference	-286	-282	4
	V2409 collection	6102	6172	70
	V2405-2409 close	-151	-145	6
	PP2405 collection	7617	7635	18
	Plastic L2405 collection	8326	8355	29
	V--PP basis difference	-1666	-1608	58
	Vmure-L basis difference of plastics	-2375	-2328	47

China PVC Index: according to Tudoduo data, the spot index of China's calcium carbide PVC rose 59.16, or 1.05%, to 5695.57 on March 20. The ethylene method PVC spot index is 5948.03, Zhang 21.52, the range is 0.363%, the calcium carbide method index rises, the ethylene method index rises, the ethylene method-calcium carbide method index price difference is 252.46.

PVC warehouse receipt daily:

Variety	Warehouse / branch warehouse	3.19 warehouse orders	3.20 warehouse orders	change
Polyvinyl chloride	China Reserve shares	1,561	1,466	-95
	China Central Reserve Nanjing	1,561	1,466	-95
Polyvinyl chloride	Cosco sea logistics	1,786	1,786	0
	Zhenjiang Middle and far Sea	1,372	1,372	0
	Middle and far sea in Jiangyin	414	414	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Peak supply chain	2,020	1,988	-32
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangyin Xiefeng	1,983	1,837	-146
Polyvinyl chloride	Benniu Port, Changzhou	17,053	11,753	-5,300
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangsu Zhengsheng	3,080	1,070	-2,010
Polyvinyl chloride	Quick biography of Xiangyu in Shanghai	84	84	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Changxing, Zhejiang	329	220	-109
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangsu Yanjin	1,555	165	-1,390
Polyvinyl chloride	Xiamen Xiangyu (Benniu Port)	300	300	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Xiamen Xiangyu (Shanghai Xiangyu)	230	0	-230
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang tomorrow (Benniu Port)	1	1	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang tomorrow (Zhejiang International Trade)	120	120	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Products Zhongda Chemical Industry (Benniu Port)	686	241	-445
Polyvinyl chloride	Products Zhongda Chemical Industry (Railway Changxing)	300	249	-51
Polyvinyl chloride	Yongan Capital (Benniu Port)	1,200	1,200	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Specialty petrochemical (Benniu Port)	2,399	1,712	-687
Polyvinyl chloride	Specialty Petrochemical (Zhejiang International Trade)	165	0	-165
Polyvinyl chloride	Sino-Thai Duojing (Zhejiang International Trade)	1,238	1,238	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Sinotrans East China	1,599	1,599	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Tiantai International Trade (Benniu Port)	440	378	-62
PVC subtotal		38,129	27,407	-10,722
Total		38,129	27,407	-10,722