PVC: The upward trend of futures prices is approaching the upper track position. Both long and short sides have opened positions, and the spot market has risen slightly.

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March 19, 2024, 4:40 PM

PVC futures analysis: March 19th V2405 contract opening price: 5920, highest price: 5977, lowest price: 5902, position: 854522, settlement price: 5939, yesterday settlement: 5906, up: 33, daily trading volume: 925168 lots, precipitated capital: 3.56 billion, capital inflow: 57.17 million.

List of comprehensive prices by region: yuan / ton

Area	March eighteenth	March nineteenth	Rise and fall	Remarks
North China	5540-5590	5540-5630	0/40	Send to cash remittance
East China	5590-5680	5620-5710	30/30	Cash out of the warehouse
South China	5640-5720	5640-5730	0/10	Cash out of the warehouse
Northeast China	5500-5650	5500-5650	0/0	Send to cash remittance
Central China	5590-5630	5590-5650	0/20	Send to cash remittance
Southwest	5480-5650	5510-5700	30/50	Kuti / send to

PVC spot market: China PVC market mainstream transaction prices rose slightly, market sentiment warmed up. Compared with the valuation, North China rose 40 yuan / ton, East China 30 yuan / ton, South China 10 yuan / ton, Northeast China stable, Central China 20 yuan / ton, Southwest China 30-50 yuan / ton. The ex-factory price of upstream PVC production enterprises tentatively increased by 10-20-50 yuan / ton, the price adjustment range of production enterprises in different regions is different, and there are still some enterprises wait and see price stability. Futures rose strongly, the spot market atmosphere improved, traders offered a higher price than yesterday, but there was still resistance to the completion of the high-price offer, the spot price advantage decreased after the price went up, the two offers still coexisted, and the basis adjustment was small. Among them, East China basis offer 05 contract-(250), South China 05 contract-(150-200), North 05 contract-(500-550), Southwest 05 contract-(300). On the whole, the spot market is still dominated by rigid demand today, and most of the transactions are concentrated before the price rise.

Futures point of view: PVC2405 contract night trading price opening narrow collation, to the end of the night market did not see an obvious fluctuation direction. After the start of morning trading, it continued on the basis of night trading, but the price rose significantly in the late morning and fell slightly in the afternoon. 2405 contracts range from 5902 to 5977 throughout the day, with a spread of 75. 05. The contract reduced its position by 9320 hands and has held 854522 positions so far. The 2409 contract closed at 6102, with 252760 positions.

PVC Future Forecast:

Futures: PVC2405 contract futures after a long period of volatility, the high point rose, the range of price fluctuations as we expected, the high began to gradually approach the upper track position. And the overall operating range of the futures price is above the MA combination line. In terms of trading, there was a slight increase in positions, with both sides of the long and short positions showing a balance of 23.7%. There is a partial short opening under the high futures price, while there is more entry at the low futures price to carry out short-term speculation. The technical level shows the opening trend of the three-track opening of the Bolin belt (13, 13, 2), and the KD line at the daily level shows a golden fork trend. Short-term futures price fluctuations observe the performance of the high range of 5950-6000, and continue to observe the breakthrough of the prefix 6.

Spot: real estate data released yesterday did not have a greater impact on the market, the overall cultural goods index operation is also close to the track, and PVC followed commodity sentiment also showed a certain push up performance, but the current volatility of the two cities in PVC is still framed in a relatively narrow range. There is a certain degree of pressure on the upside and a certain range of support for the decline, and the factors of breaking the situation at the current stage are insufficient. Taiwan Formosa Plastics PVC In April, the export shipping date is quoted by US $10, Taiwan FOB FOB is quoted at US $760, India CIF CFR is quoted at US $830, mainland CIF CFR is quoted at US $805, and Southeast Asia CFR is quoted at US $800. The performance of the two markets is in a dilemma of relative ups and downs. In the outer disk, international oil prices climbed to a four-month high as Ukrainian drones continued to attack Russian refineries, crude oil exports from Iraq and Saudi Arabia fell, and there were signs of stronger economic growth and demand in China and the United States. On the whole, the trend of slight adjustment in the PVC spot market in the short term is maintained.

PVC spread arbitrage analysis:

Arbitrage Analysis of PVC spread
PVC	Contract price difference	March eighteenth	March nineteenth	Rate of change
	V2405 collection	5920	5951	31
	Average spot price in East China	5635	5665	30
	Average spot price in South China	5680	5685	5
	PVC2405 basis difference	-285	-286	-1
	V2409 collection	6070	6102	32
	V2405-2409 close	-150	-151	-1
	PP2405 collection	7610	7617	7
	Plastic L2405 collection	8312	8326	14
	V--PP basis difference	-1690	-1666	24
	Vmure-L basis difference of plastics	-2392	-2375	17

China PVC Index: according to Tuduoduo data, China calcium Carbide PVC spot index rose 19.01, or 0.338%, to 5636.41 on March 19. The ethylene method PVC spot index was 5926.51, down 10.78%, with a range of 0.182%. The calcium carbide method index rose, the ethylene method index decreased, and the ethylene-calcium carbide index spread was 290.1.

PVC warehouse receipt daily:

Variety	Warehouse / branch warehouse	3.18 warehouse orders	3.19 warehouse orders	change
Polyvinyl chloride	China Reserve shares	1,602	1,561	-41
	China Central Reserve Nanjing	1,602	1,561	-41
Polyvinyl chloride	Cosco sea logistics	1,786	1,786	0
	Zhenjiang Middle and far Sea	1,372	1,372	0
	Middle and far sea in Jiangyin	414	414	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Peak supply chain	2,020	2,020	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangyin Xiefeng	1,983	1,983	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Benniu Port, Changzhou	17,253	17,053	-200
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangsu Zhengsheng	3,080	3,080	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Quick biography of Xiangyu in Shanghai	84	84	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Changxing, Zhejiang	329	329	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangsu Yanjin	1,555	1,555	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Xiamen Xiangyu (Benniu Port)	300	300	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Xiamen Xiangyu (Shanghai Xiangyu)	230	230	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang tomorrow (Benniu Port)	1	1	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang tomorrow (Zhejiang International Trade)	120	120	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Products Zhongda Chemical Industry (Benniu Port)	686	686	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Products Zhongda Chemical Industry (Railway Changxing)	300	300	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Yongan Capital (Benniu Port)	1,200	1,200	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Specialty petrochemical (Benniu Port)	2,399	2,399	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Specialty Petrochemical (Zhejiang International Trade)	165	165	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Sino-Thai Duojing (Zhejiang International Trade)	1,238	1,238	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Sinotrans East China	1,599	1,599	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Tiantai International Trade (Benniu Port)	440	440	0
PVC subtotal		38,370	38,129	-241
Total		38,370	38,129	-241