PVC: The fluctuation range of futures has expanded, showing a V-shaped trend, and the spot market has adjusted within a narrow range

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March 18, 2024, 5:14 PM

PVC futures analysis: March 18 V2405 contract opening price: 5934, highest price: 5954, lowest price: 5856, position: 845202, settlement price: 5906, yesterday settlement: 5907, down: 1, daily trading volume: 1069870 lots, precipitated capital: 3.503 billion, capital outflow: 7.93 million.

List of comprehensive prices by region: yuan / ton

Area	March fifteenth	March eighteenth	Rise and fall	Remarks
North China	5550-5600	5540-5590	-10/-10	Send to cash remittance
East China	5610-5700	5590-5680	-20/-20	Cash out of the warehouse
South China	5620-5700	5640-5720	20/20	Cash out of the warehouse
Northeast China	5500-5650	5500-5650	0/0	Send to cash remittance
Central China	5590-5630	5590-5630	0/0	Send to cash remittance
Southwest	5480-5650	5480-5650	0/0	Kuti / send to

PVC spot market: China PVC market mainstream transaction prices are arranged in a narrow range, and merchants in various regions adjust flexibly. Compared with the valuation, it fell 10 yuan / ton in North China, 20 yuan / ton in East China, 20 yuan / ton in South China, and stable in Northeast, Central and Southwest China. Upstream PVC production enterprise factory price most enterprises maintain a stable quotation, individual enterprises in order to reduce inventory slightly reduced 50 yuan / ton, in order to promote the signing of a generation of contracts. The futures market has ups and downs, the fluctuation range has been expanded, the trader price offer has been partially raised compared with last Friday, but the high price offer has little real support, the spot market price and point price coexist, and the basis offer is not adjusted greatly. among them, East China basis offer 05 contract-(250), South China 05 contract-(150-200), North 05 contract-(500-550), Southwest 05 contract-(300). At present, the spot market price and one-mouth price have little basic advantage, the downstream purchasing enthusiasm is low, the wait-and-see intention is strong, and the spot transaction atmosphere is weak.

From the perspective of futures: & the night price of the nbsp; PVC2405 contract began to decline from the high point, and the overall decline in the night market was larger, and the volatility range was extended to repair the upstream part of the late session. After the beginning of early trading, the price formed a V-shaped trend in the afternoon, falling first and then rising slightly. 2405 contracts range from 5856 to 5954 throughout the day, with a spread of 985.05 contracts reduced their positions by 486lots, and so far they have held 845202 positions. The 2409 contract closed at 6070, with 235449 positions.

PVC Future Forecast:

Futures: PVC2405 contract futures show an enlarged volatility range, especially the night market volatility is relatively intense, running from high to low 98 points. On Monday, compared with the period of time, the fluctuation of the futures price tends to be narrow. The technical level shows that the opening of the third rail of the Bollinger belt (13, 13, 2) is still narrowed, and the future price rises further upward from the low point of the lower rail through the middle rail, showing a long shadow column, and the KD line of the daily line shows a dead fork trend. Although the current market volatility range has expanded, but the recent price fluctuations have been upward pressure, falling support, short-term futures prices are expected to maintain a narrow volatility trend, continue to observe fluctuations in the range of 5850-6000, especially how to break through the prefix 6.

Spot: first real estate data: national Bureau of Statistics, from January to February 2024, national real estate development investment was 1.1842 trillion yuan, down 9.0% from the same period last year, of which residential investment was 882.3 billion yuan, down 9.7%. PVC supply and demand level is still maintained in the early stage, chlor-alkali plant start-up load is stable, downstream demand is mainly rigid demand, speculative demand has not been generated, VCM monomer, Taixing Xinpu VCM today reduced 50 factory acceptance by 5100-5150, weekly pricing. Oil prices fell in the outer disk as merchants took profits after oil prices hit a more than four-month high. Under the support of a more optimistic demand outlook, oil prices have risen to more than four-month highs, and US WTI crude oil futures have also stood above $80 per barrel, with investors locking in profits in the face of rapidly rising prices. On the whole, the PVC spot market will continue to adjust narrowly in the short term.

PVC spread arbitrage analysis:

Arbitrage Analysis of PVC spread
PVC	Contract price difference	March fifteenth	March eighteenth	Rate of change
	V2405 collection	5930	5920	-10
	Average spot price in East China	5655	5635	-20
	Average spot price in South China	5660	5680	20
	PVC2405 basis difference	-275	-285	-10
	V2409 collection	6072	6070	-2
	V2405-2409 close	-142	-150	-8
	PP2405 collection	7590	7610	20
	Plastic L2405 collection	8280	8312	32
	V--PP basis difference	-1660	-1690	-30
	Vmure-L basis difference of plastics	-2350	-2392	-42

China PVC Index: according to Tuduoduo data, the China calcium Carbide PVC spot Index fell 3.63 or 0.065% to 5617.4 on March 18. The ethylene method PVC spot index was 5938.47, down 4.12, with a range of 0.069%. The calcium carbide index fell, the ethylene index fell, and the ethylene-calcium carbide index spread was 321.07.

PVC warehouse receipt daily:

Variety	Warehouse / branch warehouse	3.15 warehouse orders	3.18 warehouse orders	change
Polyvinyl chloride	China Reserve shares	1,602	1,602	0
	China Central Reserve Nanjing	1,602	1,602	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Cosco sea logistics	1,786	1,786	0
	Zhenjiang Middle and far Sea	1,372	1,372	0
	Middle and far sea in Jiangyin	414	414	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Peak supply chain	2,020	2,020	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangyin Xiefeng	1,983	1,983	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Benniu Port, Changzhou	17,253	17,253	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangsu Zhengsheng	3,080	3,080	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Quick biography of Xiangyu in Shanghai	84	84	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Changxing, Zhejiang	329	329	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangsu Yanjin	1,839	1,555	-284
Polyvinyl chloride	Xiamen Xiangyu (Benniu Port)	300	300	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Xiamen Xiangyu (Shanghai Xiangyu)	230	230	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang tomorrow (Benniu Port)	1	1	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang tomorrow (Zhejiang International Trade)	120	120	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Products Zhongda Chemical Industry (Benniu Port)	686	686	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Products Zhongda Chemical Industry (Railway Changxing)	300	300	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Yongan Capital (Benniu Port)	1,200	1,200	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Specialty petrochemical (Benniu Port)	2,399	2,399	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Specialty Petrochemical (Zhejiang International Trade)	165	165	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Sino-Thai Duojing (Zhejiang International Trade)	1,238	1,238	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Sinotrans East China	1,599	1,599	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Tiantai International Trade (Benniu Port)	440	440	0
PVC subtotal		38,654	38,370	-284
Total		38,654	38,370	-284