PVC: There is obvious support below futures, rebound from low points, showing a reduction in positions, and the spot market has risen slightly.

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March 15, 2024, 4:01 PM

PVC futures analysis: March 15 V2405 contract opening price: 5867, highest price: 5935, lowest price: 5863, position: 845688, settlement price: 5907, yesterday settlement: 5869, up: 38, daily trading volume: 801769 lots, precipitated capital: 3.51 billion, capital outflow: 65.96 million.

List of comprehensive prices by region: yuan / ton

Area	March 14th	March fifteenth	Rise and fall	Remarks
North China	5530-5600	5550-5600	20/0	Send to cash remittance
East China	5580-5680	5610-5700	30/20	Cash out of the warehouse
South China	5650-5680	5620-5700	-30/20	Cash out of the warehouse
Northeast China	5500-5650	5500-5650	0/0	Send to cash remittance
Central China	5560-5620	5590-5630	30/10	Send to cash remittance
Southwest	5480-5620	5480-5650	0/30	Kuti / send to

PVC spot market: China PVC market mainstream transaction prices rose slightly, market sentiment has been repaired. Comparison of valuation: among them, North China rose 20 yuan / ton, East China increased 20-30 yuan / ton, South China's low end fell 30 yuan / ton, high-end rose 20 yuan / ton, Northeast region was stable, Central China rose 20-30 yuan / ton, Southwest region rose 30 yuan / ton. The ex-factory price of upstream PVC production enterprises has been tentatively increased by 20-30-50 yuan per ton, and the range of price adjustment is different in different regions, but there are still some enterprises that wait and see to stabilize prices. The daily futures price rose from the low point, and the price offer of traders in various regions was slightly higher than that of yesterday. Although the price base advantage decreased after the futures price went up, the two quotation models coexisted and remained stable in the near future. among them, East China basis offer 05 contract-(250), South China 05 contract-(150-200), North 05 contract-(500-550), Southwest 05 contract-(300). Although the price has risen somewhat, but the spot market feedback transaction is not added, the downstream procurement enthusiasm is low, the wait-and-see intention is strong, the spot transaction atmosphere is weak.

From the perspective of futures: & the night price of the nbsp; PVC2405 contract showed a significant rise at the beginning of trading, with a night high of more than 5900. After the start of morning trading, the futures price was arranged in a relatively high and narrow range, and the afternoon price rose further in late afternoon trading. 2405 contracts range from 5863 to 5935 throughout the day, with a spread of 72. 05. The position of the contract has been reduced by 26182 hands, and the position has been held so far by 845688 lots. The 2409 contract closed at 6072, with 212258 positions.

PVC Future Forecast:

Futures: PVC2405 contract futures rose slightly from the low, the lower support is relatively obvious, and the overall operation of the futures price once again presents a horizontal pattern around the middle track, similar to the market from Monday to Wednesday. The technical level shows that the opening of the third track of the Bolin belt (13,13,2) is still narrowed, but the distance before the third track is shortened obviously, which leads to the change of the KD line and MACD line at the daily level after today's price goes up, in which the KD line crosses. For the operation of the current two cities, we still maintain the previous point of view, there is some pressure on the upward price, but there is also support for the downward price of the futures price. In the short term, we will continue to observe the performance of 5850-6000, especially how to break through the six words up.

Spot aspect: first of all, the main contracts of Chinese futures are mixed. Rubber 20 (NR) and rubber rose by more than 3%, Shanghai copper, SC crude oil and butadiene rubber (BR) rose by more than 2%, and polypropylene (PP) and international copper rose nearly 2%. In terms of decline, industrial silicon and iron ore fell by more than 3%, coking coal fell by more than 2%, and coke and threads fell by nearly 2%. PVC also follows the overall commodity sentiment to show a certain upward performance, leading to a slight increase in spot market prices. At present, PVC calcium carbide cost port, calcium carbide prices slightly upward, calcium carbide production enterprises have a high starting load, the demand for calcium carbide is OK, and the upward trend of calcium carbide prices in the absence of waves in the fundamentals is also a positive factor. In the outer disk, oil prices rose to a four-month high as the International Energy Information Agency (IEA) raised its crude oil demand growth forecast for 2024 and lowered its supply forecast. On the whole, the spot market may continue to adjust in a narrow range in the short term, waiting for the situation to be broken.

PVC spread arbitrage analysis:

Arbitrage Analysis of PVC spread
PVC	Contract price difference	March 14th	March fifteenth	Rate of change
	V2405 collection	5860	5930	70
	Average spot price in East China	5630	5655	25
	Average spot price in South China	5665	5660	-5
	PVC2405 basis difference	-230	-275	-45
	V2409 collection	6021	6072	51
	V2405-2409 close	-161	-142	19
	PP2405 collection	7492	7590	98
	Plastic L2405 collection	8165	8280	115
	V--PP basis difference	-1632	-1660	-28
	Vmure-L basis difference of plastics	-2305	-2350	-45

China PVC Index: according to Tuduoduo data, the Chinese calcium carbide PVC spot index rose 12.23, or 0.218%, to 5621.03 on March 15. The ethylene method PVC spot index was 5942.59, up 11.80%, with a range of 0.199%. The calcium carbide index rose, the ethylene index rose, and the ethylene-calcium carbide index spread was 321.56.

PVC warehouse receipt daily:

Variety	Warehouse / branch warehouse	3.14 warehouse orders	3.15 warehouse orders	change
Polyvinyl chloride	China Reserve shares	1,702	1,602	-100
	China Central Reserve Nanjing	1,702	1,602	-100
Polyvinyl chloride	Cosco sea logistics	1,786	1,786	0
	Zhenjiang Middle and far Sea	1,372	1,372	0
	Middle and far sea in Jiangyin	414	414	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Peak supply chain	2,020	2,020	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangyin Xiefeng	1,983	1,983	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Benniu Port, Changzhou	18,308	17,253	-1,055
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangsu Zhengsheng	3,080	3,080	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Quick biography of Xiangyu in Shanghai	84	84	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Changxing, Zhejiang	329	329	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangsu Yanjin	1,839	1,839	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Xiamen Xiangyu (Benniu Port)	300	300	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Xiamen Xiangyu (Shanghai Xiangyu)	230	230	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang tomorrow (Benniu Port)	1	1	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang tomorrow (Zhejiang International Trade)	120	120	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Products Zhongda Chemical Industry (Benniu Port)	686	686	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Products Zhongda Chemical Industry (Railway Changxing)	300	300	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Yongan Capital (Benniu Port)	1,200	1,200	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Specialty petrochemical (Benniu Port)	2,399	2,399	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Specialty Petrochemical (Zhejiang International Trade)	165	165	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Sino-Thai Duojing (Zhejiang International Trade)	1,238	1,238	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Sinotrans East China	1,599	1,599	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Tiantai International Trade (Benniu Port)	440	440	0
PVC subtotal		39,809	38,654	-1,155
Total		39,809	38,654	-1,155