PVC: Futures lows are approaching the middle track, but transactions on the market are open more, and spot prices are adjusted within a narrow range.

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March 6, 2024, 5:00 PM

PVC futures analysis: March 6th V2405 contract opening price: 5903, highest price: 5950, lowest price: 5893, position: 832543, settlement price: 5928, yesterday settlement: 5929, down: 1, daily trading volume: 656835 lots, precipitated capital: 3.461 billion, capital inflow: 113 million.

List of comprehensive prices by region: yuan / ton

Area	March fifth	March sixth	Rise and fall	Remarks
North China	5580-5630	5590-5650	10/20	Send to cash remittance
East China	5650-5720	5650-5720	0/0	Cash out of the warehouse
South China	5660-5740	5660-5700	0/-40	Cash out of the warehouse
Northeast China	5510-5670	5510-5670	0/0	Send to cash remittance
Central China	5590-5650	5590-5630	0/-20	Send to cash remittance
Southwest	5500-5650	5500-5650	0/0	Kuti / send to

PVC spot market: China PVC market mainstream transaction prices are mainly arranged in a narrow range, and prices in various regions are adjusted flexibly. Compared with the valuation, the North China region rose 10-20 yuan / ton, the East China region was stable, the South China region fell 40 yuan / ton, the Northeast region was stable, the Central China region fell 20 yuan / ton, and the Southwest region was stable. The ex-factory price of upstream PVC production enterprises began to be reduced by 10-20-50 yuan / ton, and some remained stable. The low point of narrow range volatility of futures has declined somewhat. Traders' morning price offer was slightly lower than that of yesterday, but the transaction of high-price supply was blocked, and spot market price offer and one-mouth price offer coexisted. East China basis offer 05 contract-(230-250), South China 05 contract-(200), North 05 contract-(550), Southwest 05 contract-(300). On the whole, the downstream mentality of today's spot market is cautious, there is a certain rigid demand transaction at a low price, the order is on the low side, part of it is below 5900 points, and the terminal procurement enthusiasm is not good.

From a futures point of view: & the night futures price of the nbsp; PVC2405 contract rebounded slightly higher from the low price, but the overall increase was small. Futures prices fell after the start of morning trading, followed by a V-shaped rise, and the afternoon high and narrow range was sorted out to the end. 2405 contracts range from 5893 to 5950 throughout the day, with a price spread of 57. 05 contracts with an increase of 22655 positions and 832543 positions so far. The 2409 contract closed at 6071, with 148811 positions.

PVC Future Forecast:

Futures: PVC2405 contract futures low close to the middle track position, the technical level shows that the Bollinger belt (13, 13, 2) three-track opening continues to open, the overall futures price is operating between the middle and upper tracks, in terms of transaction, the opening is 26.2% higher than the empty opening 22.1%. The KD line at the daily line level shows a dead-fork trend. From the point of view of the current time node, although the fluctuation of the trading volume is relatively narrow, there is often a trend of more opening than empty opening in the near future, gradually fulfilling the expectation of the middle line, but from the high point of fluctuation, although there is more support in part, however, the weak fundamentals are difficult to show a long-term sustained upward trend on the current basis. In the short term, the operation of the futures price will observe how to break through the prefix 6 at the top, and continue to observe the support in the range of 5850-5900 below.

Spot: current PVC fundamentals, supply is temporarily stable, current enterprise maintenance has not been opened, so supply is still in a high position, demand is currently in rigid demand procurement, downstream products enterprises are hoarding goods in the early low range, so the post-holiday procurement pace still does not see a big change, high inventory under the game of supply and demand is still not well digested. At present, the volatility and direction of the two cities are not enough to attract speculative demand, so although there are expectations, there is no clear turning point. However, whether it is the futures market or the spot market, even if there is a certain return test, the range is not too large. Prices in the international crude oil futures market fell for the second day in a row as investors assessed the outlook for global oil demand after data showed a slowdown in service sector activity in the United States in February and the Chinese government's economic growth targets and plans for 2024. On the whole, in the short term, the PVC market still continues to be mainly narrowly arranged.

PVC spread arbitrage analysis:

Arbitrage Analysis of PVC spread
PVC	Contract price difference	March fifth	March sixth	Rate of change
	V2405 collection	5906	5939	33
	Average spot price in East China	5685	5685	0
	Average spot price in South China	5700	5680	-20
	PVC2405 basis difference	-221	-254	-33
	V2409 collection	6041	6071	30
	V2405-2409 close	-135	-132	3
	PP2405 collection	7418	7451	33
	Plastic L2405 collection	8153	8166	13
	V--PP basis difference	-1512	-1512	0
	Vmure-L basis difference of plastics	-2247	-2227	20

China PVC Index: according to Tuduoduo data, the China calcium Carbide PVC spot Index fell 2.54, or 0.045%, to 5645.53 on March 6. The ethylene PVC spot index was 5994.63, down 2.66, or 0.044%. The calcium carbide index fell, the ethylene index fell, and the ethylene-calcium carbide index spread was 349.1.

PVC warehouse receipt daily:

Variety	Warehouse / branch warehouse	3.5 warehouse order volume	3.6 warehouse order volume	change
Polyvinyl chloride	China Reserve shares	2,645	2,645	0
	Guangzhou materials	943	943	0
	China Central Reserve Nanjing	1,702	1,702	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Cosco sea logistics	1,936	1,936	0
	Zhenjiang Middle and far Sea	1,522	1,522	0
	Middle and far sea in Jiangyin	414	414	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang International Trade	4,040	1,803	-2,237
Polyvinyl chloride	Peak supply chain	2,673	2,673	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangyin Xiefeng	4,590	4,229	-361
Polyvinyl chloride	Benniu Port, Changzhou	21,500	21,500	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Hangzhou port logistics	153	153	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangsu Zhengsheng	3,678	3,678	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Quick biography of Xiangyu in Shanghai	84	84	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Changxing, Zhejiang	639	639	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangsu Yanjin	3,642	3,642	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Xiamen Xiangyu (Benniu Port)	300	300	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Xiamen Xiangyu (Shanghai Xiangyu)	230	230	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang tomorrow (Benniu Port)	298	1	-297
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang tomorrow (Zhejiang International Trade)	149	149	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Products Zhongda Chemical Industry (Benniu Port)	686	686	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Products Zhongda Chemical Industry (Railway Changxing)	300	300	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Yongan Capital (Benniu Port)	1,200	1,200	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Specialty petrochemical (Benniu Port)	2,399	2,399	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Specialty Petrochemical (Zhejiang International Trade)	765	165	-600
Polyvinyl chloride	Sino-Thai Duojing (Zhejiang International Trade)	1,238	1,238	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Sinotrans East China	1,599	1,599	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Tiantai International Trade (Benniu Port)	581	481	-100
PVC subtotal		55,325	51,730	-3,595
Total		55,325	51,730	-3,595