PVC: Futures encountered a correction. Whether to backtest and final range, the spot market fell slightly.

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March 5, 2024, 4:50 PM

PVC futures analysis: March 5th V2405 contract opening price: 5960, highest price: 5960, lowest price: 5902, position: 809888, settlement price: 5929, yesterday settlement: 5962, down: 33, daily trading volume: 659353 lots, precipitated capital: 3.348 billion, capital outflow: 109 million.

List of comprehensive prices by region: yuan / ton

Area	March fourth	March fifth	Rise and fall	Remarks
North China	5590-5650	5580-5630	-10/-20	Send to cash remittance
East China	5660-5750	5650-5720	-10/-30	Cash out of the warehouse
South China	5680-5780	5660-5740	-20/-40	Cash out of the warehouse
Northeast China	5510-5670	5510-5670	0/0	Send to cash remittance
Central China	5590-5650	5590-5650	0/0	Send to cash remittance
Southwest	5530-5670	5500-5650	-30/-20	Kuti / send to

PVC spot market: China PVC market mainstream transaction price weakens slightly, the spot market operation is light. Compared with the valuation, it fell by 10-20 yuan / ton in North China, 10-30 yuan / ton in East China, 20-40 yuan / ton in South China, stable in Northeast and Central China, and 20-30 yuan / ton in Southwest China. Most of the ex-factory prices of upstream PVC production enterprises remain stable, although the futures market is weak, but the upstream production enterprises have not adjusted the price, the wait-and-see mentality is relatively strong. With the weakening of the futures price on the spot market, the price offered by traders in the spot market in the morning is slightly lower than that of yesterday, and the supply of high-priced goods is difficult to close a deal. Although the current futures price has declined, it has not reached the psychological price range of the point price, so the basis offer has a general advantage. Among them, East China basis offer 05 contract-(230-250), South China 05 contract-(200), North 05 contract-(550), Southwest 05 contract-(300). On the whole, the market point price offer and a mouthful price offer coexist, the downstream mentality is cautious, and the point price hanging order is generally on the low side.

Futures point of view: PVC2405 contract night trading opening narrow volatility, intraday futures prices slightly weaker. After the start of morning trading, futures prices fell further slightly, futures prices began to weaken, and afternoon prices moved in a relatively narrow range at a low level. 2405 contracts range from 5902 to 5960 throughout the day, with a spread of 58. 05. The position of the contract has been reduced by 19163 hands, and 809888 positions have been held so far. The 2409 contract closed at 6041, with 141386 positions.

PVC Future Forecast:

Futures: PVC2405 contract futures showed a trend of weak callback. First of all, the market showed a multi-position reduction and multiple departures, of which Duoping was 26.5% higher than empty 23.4%. The futures price reached a peak of 5993 yesterday after a continuous small push and did not break through the prefix of 6. Today's market is facing a situation of multi-order profit understanding, and the downside of the position reduction confirms this trend. The technical level shows that the opening of the third rail of the Bolin belt (13,13,2) is open, and the lower rail slightly turns to the lower middle rail, and the upper rail also has a turn-around trend. The KD line at the daily line level crosses the two lines, and the distance between the MACD lines is shortened. Looking at the futures price as a whole, we may test the range of the middle track and observe the support performance in the range of 5850-5900 in the short term.

Spot: first of all today's overall cultural goods index callback collation, the afternoon closing trend is slightly differentiated, but most commodities weakened obviously, PVC also followed the overall commodity environment for callback collation, giving back some of the cumulative gains. On the other hand, the spot market still maintains rigid demand procurement, and there is a certain profit-making behavior in a single price order, and the point price does not reach a reasonable procurement range, so the purchase transaction is slightly deadlocked. In terms of PVC fundamentals, the price of calcium carbide rose slightly by 50 yuan / ton, with few other variables. Prices in the international crude oil futures market fell in the outer disk as some analysts believed that OPEC+ oil-producing countries extended the implementation of the production reduction agreement to the second quarter, suggesting that they were pessimistic about the outlook for global oil demand. The chairman of the Federal Reserve in Atlanta said the Fed is expected to cut interest rates for the first time in the third quarter and then stand still to assess the impact of the policy shift on the economy. Fed interest rate cuts could create the risk of "releasing new demand and fuelling inflation". On the whole, the PVC market may withdraw and sort out in the short term.

PVC spread arbitrage analysis:

Arbitrage Analysis of PVC spread
PVC	Contract price difference	March fourth	March fifth	Rate of change
	V2405 collection	5957	5906	-51
	Average spot price in East China	5705	5685	-20
	Average spot price in South China	5730	5700	-30
	PVC2405 basis difference	-252	-221	31
	V2409 collection	6093	6041	-52
	V2405-2409 close	-136	-135	1
	PP2405 collection	7496	7418	-78
	Plastic L2405 collection	8256	8153	-103
	V--PP basis difference	-1539	-1512	27
	Vmure-L basis difference of plastics	-2299	-2247	52

China PVC Index: according to Tuduoduo data, the Chinese calcium carbide PVC spot index fell 17.92% to 5648.07 on March 5, a range of 0.316%. The ethylene method PVC spot index was 5997.94, down 3.39, with a range of 0.056%. The calcium carbide index fell, the ethylene index fell, and the ethylene-calcium carbide index spread was 349.87.

PVC warehouse receipt daily:

Variety	Warehouse / branch warehouse	3.4 warehouse receipt quantity	3.5 warehouse order volume	change
Polyvinyl chloride	China Reserve shares	2,645	2,645	0
	Guangzhou materials	943	943	0
	China Central Reserve Nanjing	1,702	1,702	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Cosco sea logistics	2,425	1,936	-489
	Zhenjiang Middle and far Sea	1,522	1,522	0
	Middle and far sea in Jiangyin	903	414	-489
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang International Trade	4,040	4,040	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Peak supply chain	2,673	2,673	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangyin Xiefeng	4,790	4,590	-200
Polyvinyl chloride	Benniu Port, Changzhou	21,500	21,500	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Hangzhou port logistics	153	153	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangsu Zhengsheng	3,678	3,678	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Quick biography of Xiangyu in Shanghai	84	84	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Changxing, Zhejiang	639	639	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangsu Yanjin	3,682	3,642	-40
Polyvinyl chloride	Xiamen Xiangyu (Benniu Port)	300	300	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Xiamen Xiangyu (Shanghai Xiangyu)	230	230	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang tomorrow (Benniu Port)	298	298	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang tomorrow (Zhejiang International Trade)	149	149	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Products Zhongda Chemical Industry (Benniu Port)	686	686	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Products Zhongda Chemical Industry (Railway Changxing)	300	300	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Yongan Capital (Benniu Port)	1,200	1,200	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Specialty petrochemical (Benniu Port)	2,399	2,399	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Specialty Petrochemical (Zhejiang International Trade)	1,494	765	-729
Polyvinyl chloride	Sino-Thai Duojing (Zhejiang International Trade)	1,238	1,238	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Sinotrans East China	1,599	1,599	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Tiantai International Trade (Benniu Port)	581	581	0
PVC subtotal		56,783	55,325	-1,458
Total		56,783	55,325	-1,458