PVC: Futures highs are approaching the upper track, but the pressure level is effective, and the market reduces positions, and the spot rises slightly

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March 1, 2024, 4:27 PM

PVC futures analysis: March 1st V2405 contract opening price: 5950, highest price: 5965, lowest price: 5929, position: 824064, settlement price: 5948, yesterday settlement: 5918, up: 30, daily trading volume: 625390 lots, precipitated capital: 3.435 billion, capital outflow: 20.58 million.

List of comprehensive prices by region: yuan / ton

Area	February twenty _ ninth	March 1st	Rise and fall	Remarks
North China	5560-5650	5580-5650	20/0	Send to cash remittance
East China	5640-5730	5660-5730	20/0	Cash out of the warehouse
South China	5630-5720	5630-5730	0/10	Cash out of the warehouse
Northeast China	5500-5670	5500-5670	0/0	Send to cash remittance
Central China	5560-5620	5590-5650	30/30	Send to cash remittance
Southwest	5480-5670	5530-5670	30/0	Kuti / send to

PVC spot market: China PVC market mainstream transaction prices rose slightly, flexible arrangement in some areas. Compared with the valuation, it rose 20 yuan / ton in North China, 20 yuan / ton in East China, 10 yuan / ton in South China, stable in Northeast China, 30 yuan / ton in Central China and 30 yuan / ton in Southwest China. Upstream PVC production enterprises began to tentatively increase the ex-factory price by 20-30-50 yuan / ton, some enterprises are still stable prices wait and see. The operation of the futures market is slightly stronger, and the market price range of each region is arranged. With the upward price of the futures price, the price center of gravity in each region moves up slightly, and the point price and one price coexist, but there is no market for the basis quotation. East China basis offer 05 contract-(270), South China 05 contract-(200), North 05 contract-(550), Southwest 05 contract-(300). On the whole, the high-priced supply of goods in today's spot market is still difficult to close a deal, there is more room for negotiation, the enthusiasm of purchasing spot in the lower reaches is not high, the trading atmosphere in the spot market is light, and a small number of transactions are mainly done at one price.

Futures point of view: PVC2405 contract night futures prices have recently run the highest point of 5965, the overall night market high shock. Futures prices weakened slightly after the start of morning trading, but not by much, and continued to finish at a high and narrow range in the afternoon. 2405 contracts range from 5929 to 5965 throughout the day, with a spread of 36. 05. The position of the contract has been reduced by 6613 positions and 824063 positions have been held so far. The 2409 contract closed at 6088, with 134082 positions.

PVC Future Forecast:

Futures: & the operating range of the nbsp; PVC05 contract price is relatively narrow, but the overall range runs in the recent high range, and the highest point is successfully refreshed again by 5965, approaching the previous high of 5970 but not beyond. The technical level shows that the third track (13, 13, 2) of the Bolin belt turns upward, and the operating high point of the futures price is twice close to the pressure position on the upper track. The trend of golden fork of KD line and MACD line at daily level continues, and the trend of golden fork of MACD line expands. The futures price has formed a pattern of five consecutive small increases during the week. from the current time node, the futures price may show a high level to continue to sort out, and continue to observe the performance of the high range of 5900-5980 in the short term, and how to break through the six-word integer mark.

At present, there are not many fundamental variables in PVC, and there is a gradual review of stable supply and demand, but today, an enterprise in Shandong has suddenly reduced its load for three days, and the supply side may be expected to shrink. From the current time node, it is expected that the recovery in March-April will gradually enter the midline. Therefore, whether it is futures or spot disk, even if the correction, the range is not too large. The price of crude oil futures fell on the outside as US inflation data suggested that a weak US economy could be a drag on crude oil demand. In addition, OPEC's rising production also weighed on crude oil futures prices. However, OPEC+ extended the voluntary production reduction agreement to expectations for the second quarter and the conflict in the Middle East to limit the decline. On the whole, the spot market continues to observe the market stability after the relative rise in the short term.

PVC spread arbitrage analysis:

Arbitrage Analysis of PVC spread
PVC	Contract price difference	February twenty _ ninth	March 1st	Rate of change
	V2405 collection	5942	5954	12
	Average spot price in East China	5685	5695	10
	Average spot price in South China	5675	5680	5
	PVC2405 basis difference	-257	-259	-2
	V2409 collection	6075	6088	13
	V2405-2409 close	-133	-134	-1
	PP2405 collection	7493	7497	4
	Plastic L2405 collection	8266	8260	-6
	V--PP basis difference	-1551	-1543	8
	Vmure-L basis difference of plastics	-2324	-2306	18

China PVC Index: according to Tudoduo data, the Chinese calcium carbide PVC spot index rose 12.08, or 0.214%, to 5650.64 on March 1. The ethylene method PVC spot index was 6003.61, up 28.41, with a range of 0.475%. The calcium carbide index rose, the ethylene index rose, and the ethylene-calcium carbide index spread was 336.64.

PVC warehouse receipt daily:

Variety	Warehouse / branch warehouse	2.29 warehouse orders	3.1 warehouse receipt volume	change
Polyvinyl chloride	China Reserve shares	2,645	2,645	0
	Guangzhou materials	943	943	0
	China Central Reserve Nanjing	1,702	1,702	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Cosco sea logistics	2,425	2,425	0
	Zhenjiang Middle and far Sea	1,522	1,522	0
	Middle and far sea in Jiangyin	903	903	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang International Trade	4,752	4,220	-532
Polyvinyl chloride	Peak supply chain	2,673	2,673	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangyin Xiefeng	4,790	4,790	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Benniu Port, Changzhou	21,600	21,600	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Hangzhou port logistics	153	153	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangsu Zhengsheng	3,678	3,678	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Quick biography of Xiangyu in Shanghai	84	84	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Changxing, Zhejiang	639	639	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangsu Yanjin	3,682	3,682	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Xiamen Xiangyu (Benniu Port)	300	300	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Xiamen Xiangyu (Shanghai Xiangyu)	230	230	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang tomorrow (Benniu Port)	298	298	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang tomorrow (Zhejiang International Trade)	149	149	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Products Zhongda Chemical Industry (Benniu Port)	686	686	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Products Zhongda Chemical Industry (Railway Changxing)	300	300	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Yongan Capital (Benniu Port)	1,200	1,200	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Specialty petrochemical (Benniu Port)	2,399	2,399	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Specialty Petrochemical (Zhejiang International Trade)	1,494	1,494	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Sino-Thai Duojing (Zhejiang International Trade)	1,238	1,238	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Sinotrans East China	1,599	1,599	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Tiantai International Trade (Benniu Port)	581	581	0
PVC subtotal		57,595	57,063	-532
Total		57,595	57,063	-532