PVC: Futures rose in the late session and broke through the rise. There were more open positions on the market, and the low spot prices decreased.

82,034

February 27, 2024, 4:54 PM

PVC futures analysis: February 27th V2405 contract opening price: 5835, highest price: 5907, lowest price: 5825, position: 824401, settlement price: 5868, yesterday settlement: 5863, up: 5, daily trading volume: 627010 lots, precipitated capital: 3.408 billion, capital inflow: 137 million.

List of comprehensive prices by region: yuan / ton

Area	February twenty _ sixth	February twenty _ seventh	Rise and fall	Remarks
North China	5550-5620	5540-5620	-10/0	Send to cash remittance
East China	5600-5690	5620-5700	20/10	Cash out of the warehouse
South China	5650-5750	5610-5700	-40/-50	Cash out of the warehouse
Northeast China	5450-5600	5450-5600	0/0	Send to cash remittance
Central China	5540-5590	5540-5590	0/0	Send to cash remittance
Southwest	5460-5630	5480-5650	20/20	Kuti / send to

PVC spot market: China PVC market mainstream transaction prices continue to be mainly narrow collation, the spot market rose slightly in the afternoon. Compared with the valuation, North China fell by 10 yuan / ton, East China rose by 10-20 yuan / ton, South China fell by 40-50 yuan / ton, Northeast and Central China were stable, and southwest China rose by 20 yuan / ton. The ex-factory prices of upstream PVC production enterprises continued to remain stable, with individual enterprises slightly reducing 50 yuan / ton in order to reduce the inventory price in the factory area. Futures fell first and then rose, and the price trend in different regions of the spot market was divergent. In some areas, the price quotation decreased slightly in the morning, but the price recovered the decline in the afternoon. Low prices decreased in some areas, and spot market prices rose slightly after futures prices rose in late trading. At present, the market order price and one-bite price still coexist, including East China basis offer 05 contract-(230-250), South China 05 contract-(150-200), North 05 contract-(480-550), Southwest 05 contract-(250). Downstream cautious wait-and-see, bargain replenishment-based.

From the perspective of futures: & the night price of the nbsp; PVC2405 contract rose slightly at the start of the day. Although the overall night trading rose, the range was small. Prices rose further after the start of morning trading, followed by a trend of narrow volatility. The price rose significantly in late afternoon trading and continued to rise in late afternoon trading. 2405 contracts range from 5825 to 5907 throughout the day, with a spread of 82. 05 contracts with an increase of 23715 positions and 824401 positions so far. The 2409 contract closed at 6034, with 111823 positions.

PVC Future Forecast:

Futures: The futures market of PVC2405 contract showed a trend of small breakthrough, with the highest point rising through the 5900 gate of 5907, and the market also showed a certain increase of 23700 hands. The transaction opened 24.9% more than the empty opening of 23.8%, which basically belongs to the rare situation of increasing the price of the futures market. The technical level shows that the three-track opening of the Bollinger belt (13, 13, 2) is open, and the high point of the futures price is close to the upper track position after rising through the middle track. And the KD line and MACD line at the daily level show a golden fork trend. Although there are still few variables from fundamentals and macro policies, a small rise in futures prices is still good for the spot market. In the short term, the operation of futures prices observes the pressure performance in the upper range of 5900-5950.

Spot: first overall cultural goods index showed a certain rise in the afternoon, the main Chinese futures contract rose more or less, lithium carbonate rose more than 3%, glass, coking coal, coke, No. 20 rubber (NR) rose more than 2%, butadiene rubber (BR), thread, rubber rose nearly 2%. PVC futures market also follows the overall commodity market showed a certain upward performance. At present, the supply and demand level of PVC is still good and productive, downstream enterprises purchase orders on bargain, the current working load of PVC production enterprises is stable, and the supply digestion of the spot market has not yet formed a normal de-warehousing. On the outer disk, international oil prices have risen, as possible disruptions in shipping will affect global supply. In addition, traders continue to weigh the outlook for crude oil supply and demand. Concerns about the economy and oil demand led to the fall in oil prices last week. On the whole, although there is a small rise in the two cities, the range above may show a certain degree of pressure.

PVC spread arbitrage analysis:

Arbitrage Analysis of PVC spread
PVC	Contract price difference	Price 2.26	Price 2.27	Rate of change
	V2405 collection	5835	5905	70
	Average spot price in East China	5645	5660	15
	Average spot price in South China	5700	5655	-45
	PVC2405 basis difference	-190	-245	-55
	V2409 collection	5961	6034	73
	V2405-2409 close	-126	-129	-3
	PP2405 collection	7382	7486	104
	Plastic L2405 collection	8173	8257	84
	V--PP basis difference	-1547	-1581	-34
	Vmure-L basis difference of plastics	-2338	-2352	-14

China PVC Index: according to Tuduoduo data, the China calcium Carbide PVC spot Index fell 4.69 or 0.083% to 5613.85 on February 27th. The ethylene PVC spot index was 5968.59, down 5.98, or 0.1%, while the calcium carbide index fell, the ethylene index fell, and the ethylene-calcium carbide index spread was 354.74.

PVC warehouse receipt daily:

Variety	Warehouse / branch warehouse	2.24 warehouse orders	2.25 warehouse orders	change
Polyvinyl chloride	China Reserve shares	2,645	2,645	0
	Guangzhou materials	943	943	0
	China Central Reserve Nanjing	1,702	1,702	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Cosco sea logistics	2,425	2,425	0
	Zhenjiang Middle and far Sea	1,522	1,522	0
	Middle and far sea in Jiangyin	903	903	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang International Trade	5,152	5,152	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Peak supply chain	2,723	2,723	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangyin Xiefeng	4,790	4,790	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Benniu Port, Changzhou	21,600	21,600	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Hangzhou port logistics	153	153	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangsu Zhengsheng	3,678	3,678	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Quick biography of Xiangyu in Shanghai	84	84	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Changxing, Zhejiang	639	639	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangsu Yanjin	3,682	3,682	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Xiamen Xiangyu (Benniu Port)	300	300	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Xiamen Xiangyu (Shanghai Xiangyu)	230	230	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang tomorrow (Benniu Port)	298	298	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang tomorrow (Zhejiang International Trade)	149	149	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Products Zhongda Chemical Industry (Benniu Port)	686	686	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Products Zhongda Chemical Industry (Railway Changxing)	300	300	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Yongan Capital (Benniu Port)	1,200	1,200	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Specialty petrochemical (Benniu Port)	2,399	2,399	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Specialty Petrochemical (Zhejiang International Trade)	1,494	1,494	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Sino-Thai Duojing (Zhejiang International Trade)	1,238	1,238	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Sinotrans East China	1,599	1,599	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Tiantai International Trade (Benniu Port)	581	581	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Tiantai International Trade (Zhejiang Jianfeng)	32	32	0
PVC subtotal		58,077	58,077	0
Total		58,077	58,077	0