PVC: Futures highs have been refreshed, but the highs cannot support taking gains, and the spot market is slightly flexible.

78,770

February 26, 2024, 4:42 PM

PVC futures analysis: February 26th V2405 contract opening price: 5875, highest price: 5899, lowest price: 5832, position: 800686, settlement price: 5863, yesterday settlement: 5863, up: 0, daily trading volume: 762785 lots, precipitated capital: 3.27 billion, capital inflow: 57.34 million.

List of comprehensive prices by region: yuan / ton

Area	February twenty _ third	February twenty _ sixth	Rise and fall	Remarks
North China	5550-5620	5550-5620	0/0	Send to cash remittance
East China	5620-5690	5600-5690	-20/0	Cash out of the warehouse
South China	5670-5750	5650-5750	-20/0	Cash out of the warehouse
Northeast China	5450-5600	5450-5600	0/0	Send to cash remittance
Central China	5540-5590	5540-5590	0/0	Send to cash remittance
Southwest	5460-5630	5460-5630	0/0	Kuti / send to

PVC spot market: China PVC market mainstream transaction price range collation, small flexible adjustment. The comparison of valuation shows that North China is stable, East China is down 20 yuan / ton, South China is down 20 yuan / ton, and Northeast, Central China and Southwest China are stable. Most of the upstream PVC production enterprises'ex-factory prices remain stable, and there is no obvious trace of adjustment, and the production enterprises also have a certain wait-and-see mentality. Futures first high and then low, poor performance in the daytime trading day, resulting in the spot market price in the early stage of the offer part of the price slightly lower than last Friday, some areas also appeared temporary stable adjustment of the phenomenon, the spot market slightly depressed. After the weakening of the futures price, the market point price and one price coexist, including the basis offer 05 contract in East China-(230-250), the 05 contract in South China-(150-200), the 05 contract in North China-(480-560), and the 05 contract in Southwest China-(250). It coincides with the lack of enthusiasm for wait-and-see purchases downstream on Monday.

From a futures point of view: & the price of the nbsp; PVC2405 contract opened slightly higher on Friday night, with a refresh of highs. Futures prices fell sharply after the start of early trading on Monday, followed by a slight V-shaped rebound. Afternoon prices are once again facing a weakening trend, giving up their morning gains. 2405 contracts range from 5832 to 5899 throughout the day, with a spread of 67. 05 contracts with an increase of 19661 positions and 800686 positions so far. The 2409 contract closed at 5961, with 107492 positions.

PVC Future Forecast:

Futures: & the operating high of nbsp; PVC2405 contract futures showed a slight upward breakthrough, but Monday's weakness once again showed a slightly suppressed situation of short opening, which opened 26.4% more than Cangyu by 22.3% in terms of trading. Judging from the recent trend, PVC is still in an empty position, weak fundamentals, high inventory if stable demand and supply has led to the continued poor performance of the two cities in the PVC period. The technical level shows that the third track of the Bollinger belt (13, 13, 2) narrows obviously, and the price shows a positive pillar with slightly longer shadow line. We still maintain the previous point of view, and the operation of futures prices will continue to observe the performance in the range of 5780-5950 in the short term.

Spot: the spot market performed poorly on Monday. The current decline in futures prices since their highs and the performance range of futures prices have led to a small number of spot price transactions and most single-point positions tend to be low. In terms of price, the inquiry is also light, and the overall spot market on Monday is slightly weak. The current PVC fundamentals lead to the persistence of the empty distribution of the futures market, the poor disk reacts to the spot market, and the performance of the two markets is low in the overall 3P plate. Although there are certain expectations in the midline from March to April to May, there is a great uncertainty about how to break the situation and what factors take the initiative to break it. Or are more inclined to consider following the overall commodity index adjustment, which depends on their own fundamental fluctuations are limited. On the whole, the spot market in the short term may still maintain a trend of small and flexible adjustment, and the two cities need to wait for a turnaround.

PVC spread arbitrage analysis:

Arbitrage Analysis of PVC spread
PVC	Contract price difference	Price 2.23	Price 2.26	Rate of change
	V2405 collection	5877	5835	-42
	Average spot price in East China	5655	5645	-10
	Average spot price in South China	5710	5700	-10
	PVC2405 basis difference	-222	-190	32
	V2409 collection	6000	5961	-39
	V2405-2409 close	-123	-126	-3
	PP2405 collection	7404	7382	-22
	Plastic L2405 collection	8199	8173	-26
	V--PP basis difference	-1527	-1547	-20
	Vmure-L basis difference of plastics	-2322	-2338	-16

China PVC Index: according to Tuduoduo data, the China calcium Carbide PVC spot Index fell 5.19, or 0.092%, to 5618.54 on February 26. The ethylene PVC spot index was 5974.57, up 4.12, with a range of 0.069%, while the calcium carbide index decreased, the ethylene index rose, and the ethylene-calcium carbide index spread was 356.03.

PVC warehouse receipt daily:

Variety	Warehouse / branch warehouse	2.23 warehouse orders	2.24 warehouse orders	change
Polyvinyl chloride	China Reserve shares	2,645	2,645	0
	Guangzhou materials	943	943	0
	China Central Reserve Nanjing	1,702	1,702	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Cosco sea logistics	2,425	2,425	0
	Zhenjiang Middle and far Sea	1,522	1,522	0
	Middle and far sea in Jiangyin	903	903	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang International Trade	5,152	5,152	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Peak supply chain	2,723	2,723	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangyin Xiefeng	4,790	4,790	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Benniu Port, Changzhou	21,600	21,600	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Hangzhou port logistics	153	153	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangsu Zhengsheng	3,678	3,678	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Quick biography of Xiangyu in Shanghai	84	84	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Changxing, Zhejiang	639	639	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangsu Yanjin	3,682	3,682	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Xiamen Xiangyu (Benniu Port)	300	300	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Xiamen Xiangyu (Shanghai Xiangyu)	230	230	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang tomorrow (Benniu Port)	298	298	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang tomorrow (Zhejiang International Trade)	149	149	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Products Zhongda Chemical Industry (Benniu Port)	686	686	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Products Zhongda Chemical Industry (Railway Changxing)	300	300	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Yongan Capital (Benniu Port)	1,200	1,200	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Specialty petrochemical (Benniu Port)	2,399	2,399	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Specialty Petrochemical (Zhejiang International Trade)	1,494	1,494	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Sino-Thai Duojing (Zhejiang International Trade)	1,238	1,238	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Sinotrans East China	1,599	1,599	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Tiantai International Trade (Benniu Port)	581	581	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Tiantai International Trade (Zhejiang Jianfeng)	32	32	0
PVC subtotal		58,077	58,077	0
Total		58,077	58,077	0