PVC: Futures broke through the middle track and continued to push up slightly, with the market slightly reducing positions, and the spot market operating slightly stronger

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February 23, 2024, 4:49 PM

PVC futures analysis: February 23rd V2405 contract opening price: 5845, highest price: 5886, lowest price: 5836, position: 781025, settlement price: 5863, yesterday settlement: 5833, up: 30, daily trading volume: 608673 lots, precipitated capital: 3.213 billion, capital outflow: 18.99 million.

List of comprehensive prices by region: yuan / ton

Area	February 22nd	February twenty _ third	Rise and fall	Remarks
North China	5520-5600	5550-5620	30/20	Send to cash remittance
East China	5570-5650	5620-5690	50/40	Cash out of the warehouse
South China	5670-5700	5670-5750	0/50	Cash out of the warehouse
Northeast China	5400-5600	5450-5600	50/0	Send to cash remittance
Central China	5530-5590	5540-5590	10/0	Send to cash remittance
Southwest	5460-5630	5460-5630	0/0	Kuti / send to

PVC spot market: China PVC market mainstream transaction prices slightly increased, the spot market slightly stronger consolidation. Compared with the valuation, it rose 20-30 yuan / ton in North China, 40-50 yuan / ton in East China, 50 yuan / ton in South China, 50 yuan / ton in Northeast China, 10 yuan / ton in Central China, and stable in Southwest China. Upstream PVC production enterprises ex-factory prices of some enterprises slightly raised 50 yuan / ton, some enterprises continue to stabilize prices wait and see. Futures rose slightly, the morning price offer of traders in various regions was higher than that of yesterday, the supply of low-price goods in the spot market decreased, and the spot price and point price coexisted, but the spot price advantage decreased after the futures price went up. Among them, East China basis offer 05 contract-(230-250), South China 05 contract-(150-200), North 05 contract-(500-550), Southwest 05 contract-(250). It coincides with the poor turnover in the spot market on Friday, and there is a certain deal in the order price in the early low range, so after the price in the two cities has risen slightly, the transaction has weakened somewhat.

Futures point of view: PVC2405 contract night prices open with a narrow range of fluctuations, late trading prices rose slightly. After the start of morning trading, the futures price rose slightly further, and the afternoon futures price was narrowly arranged to the end within the high range of the overall trading day. 2405 contracts range from 5836 to 5886 throughout the day, with a spread of 50,05.05 and a reduction of 8917 positions, with 781025 positions so far. The 2409 contract closed at 6000, with 98156 positions.

PVC Future Forecast:

Futures: & the operation of nbsp; PVC2405 contract futures shows a small upward breakthrough trend, and the market shows a certain position reduction. The operation characteristics of the futures price in a week after the return of the Spring Festival are as follows: 1. The fluctuation range tends to be narrow. 2. It still continues the trend of low horizontal plate in the early stage. 3. Continue to test the low range, but can not effectively break it. Today Friday futures market rose slightly, the technical level shows that the Bollinger belt (13, 13, 2) three tracks narrowed significantly, because the distance between the three tracks is shortened, so the range between the upper and lower tracks is also narrowed. Daily-level KD line and MACD line show a golden fork trend, as a whole, the operation of futures prices in the short term may still be in the range of 5780-5950.

Spot aspect: coincides with the relatively flat performance of the spot market on Friday, although the price shows a small upward trend, but the transaction is not ideal. At present, the volatility of the two cities is insufficient, resulting in the spot market still maintaining a low hanging order transaction model. And the current two cities have few variable factors, no matter long or short or rise or fall, it is difficult to have a big breakthrough. The supply of the fundamentals of PVC is stable, and the middle line is expected to be overhauled in spring, but when demand is relatively weak, social inventory is still high. And at present, the restriction of real estate leads to the empty distribution of PVC products. In the outer disk, international oil prices rose as hostilities in the Red Sea continued and the Houthi allied with Iran intensified their attacks near Yemen, but the sharp increase in US crude oil stocks curbed the rise in oil prices to some extent. On the whole, the PVC spot market continues to maintain the trend of small shock finishing.

PVC spread arbitrage analysis:

Arbitrage Analysis of PVC spread
PVC	Contract price difference	Price 2.22	Price 2.23	Rate of change
	V2405 collection	5845	5877	32
	Average spot price in East China	5610	5655	45
	Average spot price in South China	5685	5710	25
	PVC2405 basis difference	-235	-222	13
	V2409 collection	5970	6000	30
	V2405-2409 close	-125	-123	2
	PP2405 collection	7400	7404	4
	Plastic L2405 collection	8183	8199	16
	V--PP basis difference	-1555	-1527	28
	Vmure-L basis difference of plastics	-2338	-2322	16

China PVC Index: according to Tudou data, the China calcium Carbide PVC spot Index rose 26.27, or 0.469%, to 5623.73 on February 23. The ethylene PVC spot index was 5970.45, up 15.48, or 0.26%. The calcium carbide index rose, the ethylene index rose, and the ethylene-calcium carbide index spread was 346.72.

PVC warehouse receipt daily:

Variety	Warehouse / branch warehouse	2.22 warehouse orders	2.23 warehouse orders	change
Polyvinyl chloride	China Reserve shares	2,645	2,645	0
	Guangzhou materials	943	943	0
	China Central Reserve Nanjing	1,702	1,702	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Cosco sea logistics	2,425	2,425	0
	Zhenjiang Middle and far Sea	1,522	1,522	0
	Middle and far sea in Jiangyin	903	903	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang International Trade	5,326	5,152	-174
Polyvinyl chloride	Peak supply chain	2,723	2,723	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangyin Xiefeng	4,790	4,790	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Benniu Port, Changzhou	21,600	21,600	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Hangzhou port logistics	153	153	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangsu Zhengsheng	3,678	3,678	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Quick biography of Xiangyu in Shanghai	84	84	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Changxing, Zhejiang	639	639	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangsu Yanjin	3,682	3,682	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Xiamen Xiangyu (Benniu Port)	300	300	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Xiamen Xiangyu (Shanghai Xiangyu)	230	230	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang tomorrow (Benniu Port)	298	298	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang tomorrow (Zhejiang International Trade)	149	149	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Products Zhongda Chemical Industry (Benniu Port)	686	686	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Products Zhongda Chemical Industry (Railway Changxing)	300	300	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Yongan Capital (Benniu Port)	1,200	1,200	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Specialty petrochemical (Benniu Port)	2,399	2,399	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Specialty Petrochemical (Zhejiang International Trade)	1,494	1,494	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Sino-Thai Duojing (Zhejiang International Trade)	1,238	1,238	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Sinotrans East China	1,599	1,599	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Tiantai International Trade (Benniu Port)	581	581	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Tiantai International Trade (Zhejiang Jianfeng)	32	32	0
PVC subtotal		58,251	58,077	-174
Total		58,251	58,077	-174