In 2024, European chemists' forecasts for the European chemical industry are still bleak. Throughout 2023, the European chemical industry struggled with weak demand, resulting in historically high costs and falling chemical prices, which had a serious impact on the financial performance of European chemical companies. In the view of these industry insiders, it is difficult for the European chemical industry to improve in 2024, and the entire European chemical industry is still in an unprecedented crisis.
   in 2023, the European chemical industry was severely uncompetitive, especially in petrochemicals, prompting many companies to suspend or permanently close European plants. This trend is expected to continue in 2024.
   according to the European Chemical Industry Commission (Cefic), the European Union is still the second largest chemical producing region after China, with annual sales of more than 760 billion euros. From 2012 to 2022, the EU's share of global chemical sales fell from 17 per cent to 14 per cent, and in the current market environment, people are all the more worried that this share will decline. Some European countries have begun to support the chemical industry through financial support. But Cefic believes that this is not enough to ensure the long-term survival of Europe as the main force in the global chemical market.
   for the European chemical market in 2024, market participants generally expect low growth. European chemical production fell 6.6 per cent in 2023, a big reversal from 5.1 per cent growth in 2022, and European chemical production is expected to rise only slightly by 1.9 per cent in 2024, according to the US Chemical Council (ACC). Cefic is even more pessimistic, forecasting a 1.0 per cent increase in EU chemical production in 2024. Cefic described the outlook as "flat to small growth" and would represent a modest recovery of the European chemical industry from two challenging years. However, given the excessive decline in European chemical production in 2023, this growth is not enough to change the status quo of the European chemical industry.
The outlook for    Germany is more pessimistic than that of Europe as a whole. The German Chemical Industry Association (VCI) expects German chemical (excluding pharmaceuticals) production and sales to fall by 1 per cent and 5 per cent respectively in 2024 as chemical business orders will shrink further. "by the end of 2023, the German chemical industry was still in recession," VCI said. Companies' expectations for the coming months are negative. "
   European chemical companies are being forced to take more aggressive financial measures because of high costs, weak demand and falling prices. "High energy and raw material prices and insufficient orders will continue to put pressure on European chemical companies," said Schraven, chairman and CEO of VCI. As a result, our company has been forced to cut costs by closing production plants, divesting some businesses and moving investment abroad. "
   is scheduled to shut down plants at the Ludwigshafen plant in Ludwigshafen, Germany, to produce ammonia, caprolactam, toluene diisocyanate and other key products by the end of 2024 to solve the problem of high costs in Europe, including rising natural gas prices. BASF also announced 2600 job cuts in Europe, about 65 per cent of them in Germany. About half of the 500 million euros a year in non-production cost savings the company is seeking will be achieved at the Ludwigshafen plant.
Several other    companies have also announced plans to shut down chemical plants in Europe during 2024, citing weak demand, high costs, falling prices and, in some cases, competition from cheap imports. Indolama plans to shut down the plant with an annual production capacity of 700000 tons of refined terephthalic acid (PTA) in the port of Sinish, Portugal. Ineos plans to shut down its 442000-ton annual PTA plant in Hull, Belgium. Steve Dorset, chief executive of Ineos aromatics, said high energy and operating costs put European PTA production at a significant disadvantage to Asian exporters. In 2023, Sheng Xi'ao, Kem One and Leandbasel have shut down bulk chemical and plastic plants in Europe.
The    European Commission recently moved to impose tariff protection measures on cheap imports of polyester in the value chain, including PTA and polyethylene terephthalate (PET), announcing anti-dumping duties of 6.6 to 24.2 per cent on imports of PET from China. The European Commission is also conducting anti-dumping investigations into polyvinyl chloride and titanium dioxide to protect European producers from possible dumping. Dorset said the PET tariff was a step in the right direction, but the European chemical industry urgently needed more help.
   market participants said that there are still some areas of the European chemical industry that can compete on a global scale, even in the field of petrochemicals. In November 2023, S & P Global estimated that the average cost of ethylene production in European cracking plants that had been converted to ethane imported from the United States was the lowest in the world, less than US $400 per tonne. In addition, European market participants said that innovation is still one of the advantages of the European chemical industry. To this end, European chemical enterprises will continue to invest in research and development under the complex market situation. According to Cefic, the EU chemical industry spends about 11 billion euros a year on research and development, accounting for 17% of the global total. Cefic said that in the next few years, the European chemical industry will develop new recycling, renewable, electrification and high-tech plastics technologies to meet the requirements of the European Green Agreement and all related regulations. Innovation is particularly important for the EU chemical industry and beneficial to society. Source: China Chemical Industry Daily