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Polyethylene PE: Futures rebounded from the lower track of Bollinger, and Shenhua auction transaction rate was 70.53%

88,311
February 6, 2024, 4:12 PM

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PEA °è re μ °é host é zero μ ú ™°What time is it now? what time are we now?A _ A _ O °PEO ó n é °é °re é é °™±(±)The relationship between these means of production and our relationship with √.PE存量装置方面,1-3月份大修计划不多,3月份天津石化LLDPE装置(12万吨/年)计划停车10天,中科炼化HDPE装置(35万吨/年)则在3月中下旬展开为期2个月的大修。需求端,地膜方面,生产情况表现较好的阶段主要集中在2-4月份。2月份春节假期之后,厂家生产维持高位,3月份正式进入传统的地膜生产旺季,地膜订单集中进入旺季,地膜厂家开机率较前期有大幅增加,将会带动需求季节性提升。成本端:原油尽管当前受地缘风险因素造成偏强运行,中线更多的要参考2月初OPEC+评估会议的情况。从OPEC+11月给出的产量政策来看,2024年是一个弱平衡的格局,同时需要考虑一定的季节性。缺乏新消息指引下,仍以震荡市对待。煤价国家政策指导维稳运行。国际原油价格高位导致聚烯烃成本支撑偏高,油制工艺已经亏损2年,未来两年产能继续扩张,加剧内耗,石化企业仍有限产保价可能。库存方面:根据往年库存走势来看,库存春节前后累库,随后逐步去化。总结:预计春节后PE市场依旧维持震荡市,上有供应及需求压制,下有成本支撑,品种间走势来看,L好于PP。

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7960

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