China Urea Price Index:

According to calculations from Feiduo data, the urea small pellet price index on February 4 was 2,252.73, a decrease of 0.91 from the previous working day, a month-on-month decrease of 0.04% and a year-on-year decrease of 20.08%.

Spot market analysis:

Today, China's urea market prices fell slightly, manufacturers 'quotations were mostly stable, and the pre-holiday price changes were relatively limited.

Specifically, prices in Northeast China have stabilized at 2,190 - 2,270 yuan/ton. Prices in North China fell to 2,040 - 2,280 yuan/ton. Prices in East China fell to 2,160 - 2,240 yuan/ton. Prices in South China are stable at 2,350 - 2,400 yuan/ton. The price of small and medium-sized particles in Central China has stabilized at 2,170 - 2,380 yuan/ton, and the price of large particles has stabilized at 2,240 - 2,320 yuan/ton. Prices in the northwest region are stable at 2,210 - 2,220 yuan/ton. Prices in Southwest China are stable at 2,230 - 2,600 yuan/ton.

Market outlook forecast:

In terms of factories, most manufacturers have basically completed advance orders during the Spring Festival. Most factories, supported by pending orders, have relatively firm offers, high and stable prices, and little room for market fluctuations before the holiday. In terms of the market, orders for the Spring Festival have been basically completed, and the market mentality tends to wait and see. In addition, under the influence of rain and snow, resistance to cargo transportation has gradually increased, and the sinking speed of goods supply has slowed down. In terms of supply, the current Nissan has changed relatively little. Some units were stopped for maintenance before the year, and the supply is running steadily at a high level. In terms of demand, agricultural demand is mainly for fertilizer preparation, and current trading is following up in a small amount; industrial demand, downstream factories have started to work in a sluggish manner, and factors such as the Spring Festival holiday have slowed down the procurement of raw materials by downstream factories. As the end of the year approaches, some downstream factories have left the market on holidays and just need to continue to operate in a weak position.

On the whole, as the end of the year approaches, the industry has intensified its wait-and-see attitude towards the market. Trading operations are limited. It is expected that the urea market price will remain stable in the short term.