PVC: Futures increased positions were suppressed, futures prices weakened slightly, and spot areas fell slightly

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January 26, 2024, 4:15 PM

PVC futures analysis: January 26th V2405 contract opening price: 5933, highest price: 5946, lowest price: 5882, position: 739705, settlement price: 5913, yesterday settlement: 5952, down: 39, daily trading volume: 643724 lots, precipitated capital: 3.051 billion, capital inflow: 83.33 million.

List of comprehensive prices by region: yuan / ton

Area	Price 1.25	Price 1.26	Rise and fall	Remarks
North China	5520-5580	5500-5560	-20/-20	Send to cash remittance
East China	5660-5740	5640-5700	-20/-40	Cash out of the warehouse
South China	5640-5710	5620-5700	-20/-10	Cash out of the warehouse
Northeast China	5450-5650	5450-5650	0/0	Send to cash remittance
Central China	5590-5640	5560-5610	-30/-30	Send to cash remittance
Southwest	5510-5650	5510-5650	0/0	Kuti / send to

PVC spot market: China PVC market mainstream transaction range is mainly sorted out, and prices in some areas have dropped slightly. Compared with the valuation, it fell by 20 yuan / ton in North China, 20-40 yuan / ton in East China, 10-20 yuan / ton in South China, stable in Northeast China, 30 yuan / ton in Central China and stable in Southwest China. The ex-factory prices of upstream PVC production enterprises mostly remained stable, with individual enterprises sporadically reduced by 30 yuan / ton. Futures trend slightly downward, the spot market offer part of the price lower than yesterday, and a few inquiries, the spot market is mainly based on the basis quotation, the basis price part of the adjustment, including East China basis offer 05 contract-(250-300), South China 05 contract-(150-250), North 05 contract-(540-600), Southwest 05 contract-(300). The spot market downstream demand low order, rigid demand point price transaction, the current demand is weak, so the trading volume is low, the downstream begins to holiday, inquiry and procurement enthusiasm is not high.

From the perspective of futures: & the opening price of nbsp; PVC2405 contract is mainly arranged in a narrow range, and there is no large fluctuation in the price trend at the end of night trading. After the start of morning trading, futures prices weakened slightly, the intraday low fell below the 5900 mark, and afternoon prices continued to fluctuate to the end. 2405 contracts range from 5882 to 5946 throughout the day, with a spread of 64. 05 contracts with an increase of 25051 positions and 739705 positions so far. The 2409 contract closed at 5893, with 739705 positions.

PVC Future Forecast:

Futures: & the operation of the futures price of the nbsp; PVC2405 contract showed a certain weakening trend at the high, the low fell below the 5900 mark, and there was a certain short opening force to suppress the decline in the futures price, of which the short opening was 25.9% compared with 22.1% more. At the technical level, it shows that the opening of the three tracks of the Bollinger belt (13, 13, 2) means narrowing. After touching the upper track position three times, there is a certain vomiting down today, and the candle chart shows a negative column throughout the day. The downward price of futures leads to a change in the technical closing line, and the KD line at the daily level crosses the two lines, but the MACD line still shows a golden fork trend. In the short term, at the position of the downward price or the middle track in the test, observe the performance of the middle track 5850-5860, and continue to observe 5900-5950 above.

Spot aspect: the overall weekly price rise in the two markets did not lead to an improvement in spot market transactions. On the one hand, downstream demand-side products enterprises buy down but not buy up, on the other hand, downstream production enterprises began to take holidays one after another, with the passage of time, the spot market began to gradually enter a stagnant state, some areas may show a trend of price but no market. At present, there are still few variables in the supply and demand level, the start-up load of PVC plant is relatively stable and high, and the monthly output is still high, but the production pressure of chlor-alkali enterprises is high, and some enterprises have reported that export orders have improved slightly in the late week. While the demand side is still facing the current situation of less demand and weaker and weaker, the high inventory caused by the game between supply and demand is still the norm, and some middlemen and downstream enterprises are relatively hoarding goods in the early low range, so although the two markets are up in the week, but the transaction is slightly light. In the short term, the PVC spot market will continue to be mainly adjusted flexibly within a narrow range.

PVC spread arbitrage analysis:

Arbitrage Analysis of PVC spread
PVC	Contract price difference	Price 1.25	Price 1.26	Rate of change
	V2405 collection	5933	5893	-40
	Average spot price in East China	5700	5670	-30
	Average spot price in South China	5675	5660	-15
	PVC2405 basis difference	-233	-223	10
	V2409 collection	6040	6001	-39
	V2405-2409 close	-107	-108	-1
	PP2405 collection	7456	7443	-13
	Plastic L2405 collection	8239	8238	-1
	V--PP basis difference	-1523	-1550	-27
	Vmure-L basis difference of plastics	-2306	-2345	-39

China PVC Index: according to Tuduoduo data, the spot index of China's calcium carbide PVC fell 20.09, or 0.357%, to 5612.93 on January 26. The ethylene method PVC spot index was 5877.44, down 8.31%, with a range of 0.141%. The calcium carbide index fell, the ethylene index fell, and the ethylene-calcium carbide index spread was 264.51.

PVC warehouse receipt daily:

Variety	Warehouse / branch warehouse	1.25 warehouse orders	1.26 warehouse orders	change
Polyvinyl chloride	China Reserve shares	2,645	2,645	0
	Guangzhou materials	943	943	0
	China Central Reserve Nanjing	1,702	1,702	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Cosco sea logistics	2,425	2,425	0
	Zhenjiang Middle and far Sea	1,522	1,522	0
	Middle and far sea in Jiangyin	903	903	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang International Trade	5,546	5,546	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Peak supply chain	2,723	2,723	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangyin Xiefeng	4,658	4,658	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Benniu Port, Changzhou	21,266	21,266	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Hangzhou port logistics	153	153	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangsu Zhengsheng	3,678	3,678	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Quick biography of Xiangyu in Shanghai	84	84	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Changxing, Zhejiang	639	639	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangsu Yanjin	3,682	3,682	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Xiamen Xiangyu (Benniu Port)	300	300	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Xiamen Xiangyu (Shanghai Xiangyu)	230	230	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang tomorrow (Benniu Port)	298	298	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang tomorrow (Zhejiang International Trade)	149	149	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Products Zhongda Chemical Industry (Benniu Port)	450	450	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Products Zhongda Chemical Industry (Railway Changxing)	300	300	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Yongan Capital (Benniu Port)	1,200	1,200	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Specialty petrochemical (Benniu Port)	2,399	2,399	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Specialty Petrochemical (Zhejiang International Trade)	1,800	1,494	-306
Polyvinyl chloride	Sino-Thai Duojing (Zhejiang International Trade)	1,238	1,238	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Sinotrans East China	1,387	1,387	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Tiantai International Trade (Benniu Port)	581	581	0
PVC subtotal		57,831	57,525	-306
Total		57,831	57,525	-306