PVC: Futures prices continue to move sideways on the mid-track, technical closing lines are unstable, and the spot market range is sorted out

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January 22, 2024, 4:40 PM

PVC futures analysis: January 22nd V2405 contract opening price: 5880, highest price: 5900, lowest price: 5823, position: 802610, settlement price: 5863, yesterday settlement: 5856, up: 7, daily trading volume: 859846 lots, precipitated capital: 3.277 billion, capital outflow: 45.46 million.

List of comprehensive prices by region: yuan / ton

Area	Price 1.19	Price 1.22	Rise and fall	Remarks
North China	5500-5550	5500-5550	0/0	Send to cash remittance
East China	5600-5660	5600-5660	0/0	Cash out of the warehouse
South China	5590-5630	5580-5650	-10/20	Cash out of the warehouse
Northeast China	5450-5600	5450-5600	0/0	Send to cash remittance
Central China	5530-5580	5530-5580	0/0	Send to cash remittance
Southwest	5420-5600	5420-5600	0/0	Kuti / send to

PVC spot market: China PVC market mainstream transaction price range is mainly sorted out, each region is basically flexible and fine-tuned. The comparison of valuation shows that North China and East China are stable, low-end prices in South China are down 10 yuan / ton, high-end prices are up 20 yuan / ton, and Northeast, Central and Southwest regions are stable. Upstream PVC production enterprises factory prices coincided with Monday did not see a larger adjustment action, mostly stable wait-and-see. Futures are still hovering in the range, with prices offered by traders in all regions rising in the morning, but falling after the afternoon decline. The quotation of the source of urgent delivery in the spot market is lower. After the afternoon price decline, the point price supply has an advantage for the time being, but the order point of the product enterprises is generally on the low side. The basis offer has not changed much, including 05 contract in East China-(200-250), 05 contract in South China-(150-250), 05 contract in North China-(520-600), and 05 contract in Southwest China-(250). On the whole, the turnover in the spot market on Monday is light, and the inquiry and purchase intention is low.

Futures point of view: PVC2405 contract Friday night trading opening price narrow high finishing mainly, the overall night trading volatility range is relatively small. Prices fell after the start of early trading on Monday, but then rebounded to a high of 5900 and fell from their peak in the afternoon. 2405 contracts range from 5823 to 5900 throughout the day, with a spread of 77. 05. The position of the contract has been reduced by 5593 hands, and the position has been held by 802610 hands so far. The 2409 contract closed at 5932, with 72993 positions.

PVC Future Forecast:

Futures: & the operating range of nbsp; PVC2405 contract price is still around the middle track, but the recent continuous horizontal fluctuation range has narrowed, resulting in the technical level of Bollinger belt (13, 13, 2) three tracks narrowed obviously, and the daily level of KD line and MACD line two lines shortened. Recently, the market has been showing a state of reducing positions, on the one hand, funds left the market before the festival, on the other hand, the narrow adjustment of the price range has reduced the degree of participation. At present, there are not many guidelines from fundamentals and policies, so no matter how short the direction is, there is no sufficient guidance. We still maintain our early judgment, but at present, bears are cautiously involved, focusing on the performance in the range of 5750-5800 below.

Spot aspect: period the two cities have been operating in a small range of finishing state recently, the spot market price is flexible and fine-tuned, the adjustment range is even less than 50 yuan / ton. From the current time node point of view, the spot transaction is more and more weak, far from the futures source inquiry degree is OK. In terms of supply and demand, the supply is temporarily stable, and the start-up load of the PVC plant is still at a high level, but on the demand side, product companies have begun to take holidays one after another, and spot demand is even more depressed, so the prices of the two cities have not seen a better performance for a long time. But even if the shackles of fundamental demand are agreed, futures and current prices have not fallen sharply on the current basis, PVC unit valuations are low and expectations for the medium term exist. Looking at the spot market in the short term as a whole, it may still be difficult to get rid of the situation of narrow arrangement, waiting for the performance of the medium-term break.

PVC spread arbitrage analysis:

Arbitrage Analysis of PVC spread
PVC	Contract price difference	Price 1.19	Price 1.22	Rate of change
	V2405 collection	5872	5832	-40
	Average spot price in East China	5630	5630	0
	Average spot price in South China	5610	5615	5
	PVC2405 basis difference	-242	-202	40
	V2409 collection	5969	5932	-37
	V2405-2409 close	-97	-100	-3
	PP2405 collection	7356	7429	73
	Plastic L2405 collection	8203	8270	67
	V--PP basis difference	-1484	-1597	-113
	Vmure-L basis difference of plastics	-2331	-2438	-107

China PVC Index: according to Tudoduo data, China calcium Carbide PVC spot index rose 1.11, or 0.02%, to 5578.54 on January 22nd. The ethylene method PVC spot index is 5832.95, up 1.36, the range is 0.023%, the calcium carbide method index rises, the ethylene method index rises, the ethylene method-calcium carbide method index price difference is 254.41.

PVC warehouse receipt daily:

Variety	Warehouse / branch warehouse	1.19 warehouse orders	1.22 warehouse orders	change
Polyvinyl chloride	China Reserve shares	2,645	2,645	0
	Guangzhou materials	943	943	0
	China Central Reserve Nanjing	1,702	1,702	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Cosco sea logistics	2,066	2,125	59
	Zhenjiang Middle and far Sea	1,522	1,522	0
	Middle and far sea in Jiangyin	544	603	59
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang International Trade	5,546	5,546	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Peak supply chain	2,753	2,753	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangyin Xiefeng	4,658	4,658	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Benniu Port, Changzhou	21,547	21,266	-281
Polyvinyl chloride	Hangzhou port logistics	153	153	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangsu Zhengsheng	3,684	3,684	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Quick biography of Xiangyu in Shanghai	84	84	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Changxing, Zhejiang	639	639	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangsu Yanjin	3,682	3,682	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Xiamen Xiangyu (Benniu Port)	300	300	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Xiamen Xiangyu (Shanghai Xiangyu)	230	230	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang tomorrow (Benniu Port)	298	298	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang tomorrow (Zhejiang International Trade)	149	149	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Products Zhongda Chemical Industry (Benniu Port)	450	450	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Products Zhongda Chemical Industry (Railway Changxing)	300	300	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Yongan Capital (Benniu Port)	1,200	1,200	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Specialty petrochemical (Benniu Port)	2,399	2,399	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Specialty Petrochemical (Zhejiang International Trade)	1,800	1,800	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Sino-Thai Duojing (Zhejiang International Trade)	1,238	1,238	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Sinotrans East China	1,387	1,387	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Tiantai International Trade (Benniu Port)	581	581	0
PVC subtotal		57,789	57,567	-222
Total		57,789	57,567	-222