PVC: Futures price fluctuations are extremely narrow. Continue to leave the market and adjust flexibly.

89,947

January 19, 2024, 4:25 PM

PVC futures analysis: January 19 V2405 contract opening price: 5854, highest price: 5874, lowest price: 5835, position: 808203, settlement price: 5856, yesterday settlement: 5835, up: 21, daily trading volume: 568188 lots, precipitated capital: 3.322 billion, capital outflow: 36.78 million.

List of comprehensive prices by region: yuan / ton

Area	Price 1.18	Price 1.19	Rise and fall	Remarks
North China	5500-5520	5500-5550	0/30	Send to cash remittance
East China	5580-5660	5600-5660	20/0	Cash out of the warehouse
South China	5600-5650	5590-5630	-10/-20	Cash out of the warehouse
Northeast China	5450-5600	5450-5600	0/0	Send to cash remittance
Central China	5530-5580	5530-5580	0/0	Send to cash remittance
Southwest	5420-5600	5420-5600	0/0	Kuti / send to

PVC spot market: China PVC market mainstream transaction prices are mainly adjusted flexibly and arranged in different regions. Compared with the valuation, North China rose 30 yuan / ton, East China increased 20 yuan / ton, South China fell 10-20 yuan / ton, and Northeast, Central and Southwest regions were stable. Upstream PVC production enterprises temporarily stable ex-factory prices, individual enterprises slightly reduced 20 yuan / ton to promote transactions. The futures price fluctuates in a narrow range, and the spot market price and the basis offer coexist, and the change is small. The fluctuation range of the futures price makes the point price source have no price advantage for the time being, in which the East China base difference offer 05 contract-(200-250), the South China 05 contract-(150-250), the North 05 contract-(520-580), the Southwest 05 contract-(250), on the whole, the spot market spot price is lower. There are some urgent supply of goods at low prices in the market, and most of the transactions are based on low prices. The purchasing enthusiasm of the lower reaches is not high for the time being, and some of them wait and see for the time being.

Futures point of view: PVC2405 contract night trading opening price to the end of the night trading, are mainly fluctuating in a small range. After the beginning of early trading, the futures price rose slightly, but the overall strength was not strong enough, and then continued to open the mode of narrow operation, and the price closed slightly higher in late trading. 2405 contracts range from 5835 to 5874 throughout the day, with a price difference of 39. 05. The contract reduced its position by 10064 hands and has held 808203 positions so far. The 2409 contract closed at 5969, with 71517 positions.

PVC Future Forecast:

Futures: & the volatility of the nbsp; PVC2405 contract price is extremely narrow, the fluctuation range is only 39 points, the overall direction of the whole day is not clear, the market continues to show a wait-and-see market to reduce positions and leave the market, and the air level has slightly increased, of which 25.3% is flat compared to 22.4%. First of all, extremely narrow fluctuations make the technical level of the closing line lose guidance, on the other hand, the narrow range of fluctuations leads to poor capital participation, and there is a trend of continuous departure. The overall futures price continues to focus on the middle track. Considering from the current time node, we still maintain the previous judgment, there is pressure above the futures price and there is support under it, and we continue to observe the performance of 5750-5800 and 5900-5950.

Spot: from the current spot market, the digestion speed of the spot is slower, the spot price is lower, and the spot price does not have the advantage, the spot transaction is more light, and the forward pre-sale price is not lower than the current urgent pick-up source price. From this, we can see that there are still some expectations for the post-holiday market, and there are still some expectations in the industrial chain. from the frequency of narrow adjustment in the current two cities, first of all, the current ex-factory price of the port of the production enterprise is already at a low level. the state of unit loss and low valuation continues, and then the mentality of middlemen and downstream hoarding is also constantly entangled. Therefore, the current two markets rise and fall in a dilemma. Oil prices rose in the outer disk as US crude oil inventories fell more than expected last week and the IEA (International Energy Agency) raised its demand growth forecast for this year. On the whole, the spot market price will still operate in a narrow range.

PVC spread arbitrage analysis:

Arbitrage Analysis of PVC spread
PVC	Contract price difference	Price 1.18	Price 1.19	Rate of change
	V2405 collection	5864	5872	8
	Average spot price in East China	5620	5630	10
	Average spot price in South China	5625	5610	-15
	PVC2405 basis difference	-244	-242	2
	V2409 collection	5959	5969	10
	V2405-2409 close	-95	-97	-2
	PP2405 collection	7348	7356	8
	Plastic L2405 collection	8179	8203	24
	V--PP basis difference	-1484	-1484	0
	Vmure-L basis difference of plastics	-2315	-2331	-16

China PVC Index: the spot index of China's calcium carbide PVC rose 2.78, or 0.05%, to 5577.43 on January 19, according to Tudor data. The ethylene method PVC spot index is 5831.59, down 0, the range is 0%, the calcium carbide method index rises, the ethylene method index is stable, and the ethylene method-calcium carbide method index spread is 254.16.

PVC warehouse receipt daily:

Variety	Warehouse / branch warehouse	1.18 warehouse orders	1.19 warehouse orders	change
Polyvinyl chloride	China Reserve shares	2,665	2,645	-20
	Guangzhou materials	963	943	-20
	China Central Reserve Nanjing	1,702	1,702	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Cosco sea logistics	2,066	2,066	0
	Zhenjiang Middle and far Sea	1,522	1,522	0
	Middle and far sea in Jiangyin	544	544	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang International Trade	5,546	5,546	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Peak supply chain	2,773	2,753	-20
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangyin Xiefeng	4,853	4,658	-195
Polyvinyl chloride	Benniu Port, Changzhou	21,547	21,547	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Hangzhou port logistics	153	153	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangsu Zhengsheng	3,684	3,684	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Quick biography of Xiangyu in Shanghai	84	84	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Changxing, Zhejiang	639	639	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangsu Yanjin	3,682	3,682	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Xiamen Xiangyu (Benniu Port)	300	300	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Xiamen Xiangyu (Shanghai Xiangyu)	230	230	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang tomorrow (Benniu Port)	298	298	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang tomorrow (Zhejiang International Trade)	149	149	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Products Zhongda Chemical Industry (Benniu Port)	450	450	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Products Zhongda Chemical Industry (Railway Changxing)	300	300	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Yongan Capital (Benniu Port)	1,200	1,200	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Specialty petrochemical (Benniu Port)	2,399	2,399	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Specialty Petrochemical (Zhejiang International Trade)	1,800	1,800	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Sino-Thai Duojing (Zhejiang International Trade)	1,238	1,238	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Sinotrans East China	1,387	1,387	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Tiantai International Trade (Benniu Port)	581	581	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Tiantai International Trade (Zhejiang Jianfeng)	64	0	-64
PVC subtotal		58,088	57,789	-299
Total		58,088	57,789	-299