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Polypropylene PP: Futures fluctuated by less than 50 points, spot trading was sluggish, and prices were stabilizing

89,531
January 19, 2024, 4:00 PM

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My position is my friend. I mean, I'm my friend now. I'm my friend now.Bran branPP市场平稳偏强运行,中国拉丝主流价格在7250-7450元/吨不等,仅华南地区低价小涨30元/吨,其他区域价格走稳。石化方面,两油库存继续下降,目前石化库存水平维持在年内中低位。今日两油出厂多数稳定,仅中油华南个别下调50-100元/吨。煤企方面久泰、宁煤仍有上调,成本支撑带动作用犹存。国际能源署预计全球需求将出现增长,叠加美国商业原油库存降至低位,国际油价上涨。PP期货方面,区间震荡偏强运行,一定程度缓和市场紧张情绪。持货商观望出货,实盘依量商谈。下游入市谨慎,场内交投表现疲软。


PPA é °è è μ °é host é zero μ ú ™°We'll never do it again. Is that what I did? I won't do it again.“涨跌交错”的行情已经延续了十几个交易日。地缘风险持续时间不确定,是否会升级也是未知数,后期仍然要侧重留意地缘风险的干扰。煤炭,产地区域内部分煤矿搬家倒面及年底检修停产,整体供应稍有收缩。终端仍以刚需拉运为主,暂未有大量补库需求,预计短期内坑口煤价将维持震荡偏弱运行局面。供给方面:下周中韩石化3线、浙江石化3线计划停车,开车方面东莞巨正源、茂名三线、宁波金发等前期检修装置计划开车,同时广东(揭阳)石化二线20万吨/年顺利投产,安徽天大15万吨/年聚丙烯装置已试产,即将正常运行,在新产能投放之下,中线供应压力依旧不容小觑。需求方面:下游除BOPP、CPP外,多数细分下游订单均季节性转弱,其中PP管材受天气影响,开工下降尤为明显。但随着期现两市转好,部分前期观望买盘逢低入市,场内气氛有所回稳。石化政策:石化短期出厂价将逐步企稳,部分低价有望继续上调,场内成本支撑再度显现。综合影响下,预计短期中国PP市场震荡运行为主。中线供需压力之下,上方反弹空间有限。

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