PVC: Although the futures price rose above the mark at a high point, it was open and suppressed the retracement, and the spot market weakened slightly

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January 17, 2024, 4:44 PM

PVC futures analysis: January 17 V2405 contract opening price: 5878, highest price: 5904, lowest price: 5857, position: 829758, settlement price: 5878, yesterday settlement: 5873, up: 5, daily trading volume: 543689 lots, precipitated capital: 3.403 billion, capital outflow: 30.82 million.

List of comprehensive prices by region: yuan / ton

Area	Price 1.16	Price 1.17	Rise and fall	Remarks
North China	5480-5540	5510-5550	30/10	Send to cash remittance
East China	5630-5680	5630-5680	0/0	Cash out of the warehouse
South China	5650-5700	5630-5680	-20/-20	Cash out of the warehouse
Northeast China	5500-5650	5470-5620	-30/-30	Send to cash remittance
Central China	5550-5600	5550-5600	0/0	Send to cash remittance
Southwest	5470-5620	5470-5620	0/0	Kuti / send to

PVC spot market: mainstream transaction prices in China's PVC market continue to be sorted out in a small range, weakening slightly in some areas. Valuation comparison: North China rose 10-30 yuan / ton, East China was stable, South China fell 20 yuan / ton, Northeast China fell 30 yuan / ton, and Central China and Southwest China were stable. The ex-factory prices of upstream PVC production enterprises mostly remain stable, and most of the first-generation contracts are signed with basic quantity, and some enterprises with lower quotations in the previous period are raised by 20 yuan / ton. After the futures market rose, it weakened slightly, the spot market price and point price offer coexisted, one price offer fell slightly in some areas, and there were not many transactions at one price. Trader basis offer part of the slightly stronger, including East China basis offer 05 contract-(200-250), South China 05 contract-(150-250), North 05 contract-(520-580), Southwest 05 contract-(250), on the whole, there is no obvious improvement in downstream purchasing enthusiasm, actual single transactions are rare, and the trading atmosphere in the spot market is weak.

From a futures point of view: & the night opening price of the nbsp; PVC2405 contract continued to form a small push, rising to a high of 5904. However, after the start of morning trading, the price continued to fluctuate slightly and weakened, finishing in a narrow range in the afternoon to the end. 2405 contracts range from 5857 to 5904 throughout the day, with a price difference of 47. 05. The position of the contract has been reduced by 4524 hands, and 829758 positions have been held so far. The 2409 contract closed at 5950, with 70003 positions.

PVC Future Forecast:

Futures: & the pressure level above the operation of nbsp; PVC2405 contract prices appears in the range of 5900-5950 as we expected. On the one hand, in view of the spot sales pressure combined with new orders to enter the insurance policy, on the other hand, how to return the more than 100000 hands who left the market. In terms of transaction, 25.6% of the blank opening is compared with 20.1% more, and there is still a certain empty mood in the transaction. The technical level shows that the Bollinger belt (13, 13, 2) three tracks are still narrowing, although the continuous narrow fluctuation trend of futures prices has a small breakthrough, but the narrowing range leads to a narrowing of the distance between the three tracks. The daily KD line and MACD line show a golden fork trend, we still maintain the previous judgment, observe the pressure performance in the range of 5900-5950, and the support of 5750-5800 below.

Spot aspect: In view of the small upward trend of the market since the low point this week, the spot market price has also increased in varying degrees with a small rhythm. Although it has weakened in some areas today, the overall price trend has risen slightly during the week, and the transaction is poor. The upward price of futures has not led to a better trading performance, although there are voices of hoarding goods from traders and downstream enterprises at present. However, in view of the current prices, there are still few decisive sales. At present, there are not many variable factors in the level of supply and demand, high inventory is still a constraint, and the weakness of demand in the game of supply and demand is more obvious. Therefore, even if the prices of the two markets go up, the range is still limited. On the outer disk, there are signs of escalation of tensions in the Middle East. The US military has launched a new strike against four Houthi anti-ship ballistic missiles in Yemen. Tensions in the Red Sea have disrupted the global transport of goods through this key trade route. On the whole, it is difficult for the PVC spot market to get rid of the situation of small consolidation in the short term.

PVC spread arbitrage analysis:

Arbitrage Analysis of PVC spread
PVC	Contract price difference	Price 1.16	Price 1.17	Rate of change
	V2405 collection	5880	5859	-21
	Average spot price in East China	5655	5655	0
	Average spot price in South China	5675	5655	-20
	PVC2405 basis difference	-225	-204	21
	V2409 collection	5970	5950	-20
	V2405-2409 close	-90	-91	-1
	PP2405 collection	7375	7315	-60
	Plastic L2405 collection	8172	8140	-32
	V--PP basis difference	-1495	-1456	39
	Vmure-L basis difference of plastics	-2292	-2281	11

China PVC Index: according to Tuduoduo data, China calcium Carbide PVC spot index fell 2.11, or 0.038%, to 5602.68 on January 17. The ethylene method PVC spot index was 5840.54, down 21.17, with a range of 0.361%. The calcium carbide index fell, the ethylene index fell, and the ethylene-calcium carbide index spread was 237.86.

PVC warehouse receipt daily:

Variety	Warehouse / branch warehouse	1.16 warehouse orders	1.17 warehouse orders	change
Polyvinyl chloride	China Reserve shares	2,665	2,665	0
	Guangzhou materials	963	963	0
	China Central Reserve Nanjing	1,702	1,702	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Cosco sea logistics	2,066	2,066	0
	Zhenjiang Middle and far Sea	1,522	1,522	0
	Middle and far sea in Jiangyin	544	544	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang International Trade	5,546	5,546	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Peak supply chain	2,793	2,773	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangyin Xiefeng	4,853	4,853	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Benniu Port, Changzhou	21,427	21,547	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Hangzhou port logistics	153	153	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangsu Zhengsheng	3,684	3,684	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Quick biography of Xiangyu in Shanghai	84	84	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Changxing, Zhejiang	639	639	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangsu Yanjin	3,682	3,682	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Xiamen Xiangyu (Benniu Port)	300	300	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Xiamen Xiangyu (Shanghai Xiangyu)	230	230	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang tomorrow (Benniu Port)	298	298	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang tomorrow (Zhejiang International Trade)	149	149	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Products Zhongda Chemical Industry (Benniu Port)	450	450	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Products Zhongda Chemical Industry (Railway Changxing)	300	300	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Yongan Capital (Benniu Port)	1,200	1,200	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Specialty petrochemical (Benniu Port)	2,399	2,399	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Specialty Petrochemical (Zhejiang International Trade)	1,800	1,800	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Sino-Thai Duojing (Zhejiang International Trade)	1,238	1,238	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Sinotrans East China	1,387	1,387	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Tiantai International Trade (Benniu Port)	581	581	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Tiantai International Trade (Zhejiang Jianfeng)	64	64	0
PVC subtotal		57,988	58,088	0
Total		57,988	58,088	0