PVC: The high point of futures prices continues to push upward, and the market seems to be withdrawing, with the spot range rising slightly

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January 16, 2024, 4:19 PM

PVC futures analysis: January 16 V2405 contract opening price: 5855, highest price: 5897, lowest price: 5846, position: 834282, settlement price: 5873, yesterday settlement: 5846, up: 27, daily trading volume: 579834 lots, precipitated capital: 3.434 billion, capital outflow: 55.95 million.

List of comprehensive prices by region: yuan / ton

Area	Price 1.15	Price 1.16	Rise and fall	Remarks
North China	5480-5520	5480-5540	0/20	Send to cash remittance
East China	5610-5670	5630-5680	20/10	Cash out of the warehouse
South China	5620-5680	5650-5700	30/20	Cash out of the warehouse
Northeast China	5500-5650	5500-5650	0/0	Send to cash remittance
Central China	5550-5600	5550-5600	0/0	Send to cash remittance
Southwest	5470-5570	5470-5620	0/50	Kuti / send to

PVC spot market: China PVC market mainstream transaction price range consolidation, transaction has not changed for the time being. Compared with the valuation, North China rose 20 yuan / ton, East China increased 10-20 yuan / ton, South China increased 20-30 yuan / ton, Northeast China was stable, Central China was stable, and Southwest China rose 50 yuan / ton. The ex-factory prices of upstream PVC production enterprises mostly remain stable, and individual enterprises make up prices sporadically. The narrow operating price of futures has risen slightly, and the price offer in some parts of the spot market has risen slightly, with a limited increase, and some areas still maintain the range. Spot market price and point price offer are available, point price supply for the time being no price advantage, a low price a small amount of transactions. The basis offer has been slightly adjusted, including 05 contract in East China-(200-250), 05 contract in South China-(150-250), 05 contract in North China-(520-580), 05 contract in Southwest China-(250). On the whole, there is a small negotiation in the spot part, and the purchasing enthusiasm in the lower reaches is low.

From the perspective of futures: & the price of the nbsp; PVC2405 contract began to rise slightly at the opening of the night trading, and the upward trend remained good in the night trading. Prices weakened after hitting a high of 5897 in early trading, giving up some of their gains in the afternoon but then rose in late trading. 2405 contracts range from 5846 to 5897 throughout the day, with a spread of 51. 055.The contract reduced its position by 16197 hands and has held 834282 positions so far. The 2409 contract closed at 5970, with 68885 positions.

PVC Future Forecast:

Futures: PVC2405 contract price operation has been reducing positions recently, from the current time node tends to consider the departure of some funds to wait and see, especially before the festival with the passage of time in the gradual shortening of the remaining trading days, no matter under the stimulation of market accidents, there is a certain pressure, so the market from a high position of Yu 940000 to the current more than 830000 hands. The operation of futures prices has shown a quadruple small rise since its low of 5754. Technical level shows that the Bollinger belt (13, 13, 2) three-track opening further narrowed, in the short term we still maintain the previous judgment, the price operation or storage continues to slightly upward performance observation range of 5900-5950.

Spot aspect: 's current two-city operation is mainly a narrow range of small increases in the near future, futures prices together with the spot market tentatively a small upward, not much from the fundamentals, and not enough to support the two cities prices reversal market, but the downward space narrowed. At present, the unit valuation of PVC is on the low side, and from the perspective of expectation in the medium and long term, bad time in exchange for certain profits has also become the consensus of the whole industrial chain, so recently, no matter intermediate merchants or downstream products enterprises have different hoarding voices, and some upstream enterprises also choose to accumulate inventory within the low price range. Oil prices fell slightly in the outer disk, and investors locked in profits after a sharp rise in oil prices, as the conflict in the Middle East did not have a significant impact on supply. Some tanker owners avoided the Red Sea and a number of tankers changed course. Goldman Sachs expects the US to start cutting interest rates in March, followed by the European Central Bank and the Bank of England. On the whole, the spot market may still be promoted by a small margin in the short term.

PVC spread arbitrage analysis:

Arbitrage Analysis of PVC spread
PVC	Contract price difference	Price 1.15	Price 1.16	Rate of change
	V2405 collection	5862	5880	18
	Average spot price in East China	5640	5655	15
	Average spot price in South China	5650	5675	25
	PVC2405 basis difference	-222	-225	-3
	V2409 collection	5964	5970	6
	V2405-2409 close	-102	-90	12
	PP2405 collection	7352	7375	23
	Plastic L2405 collection	8101	8172	71
	V--PP basis difference	-1490	-1495	-5
	Vmure-L basis difference of plastics	-2239	-2292	-53

China PVC Index: according to Tudoduo data, the spot index of China's calcium carbide PVC rose 14.3 or 0.256 per cent to 5604.79 on January 16. The ethylene method PVC spot index is 5861.71, up 3.76, the range is 0.064%, the calcium carbide method index rises, the ethylene method index rises, the ethylene method-calcium carbide method index price difference is 256.92.

PVC warehouse receipt daily:

Variety	Warehouse / branch warehouse	1.15 warehouse orders	1.16 warehouse orders	change
Polyvinyl chloride	China Reserve shares	2,665	2,665	0
	Guangzhou materials	963	963	0
	China Central Reserve Nanjing	1,702	1,702	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Cosco sea logistics	2,066	2,066	0
	Zhenjiang Middle and far Sea	1,522	1,522	0
	Middle and far sea in Jiangyin	544	544	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang International Trade	5,546	5,546	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Peak supply chain	2,793	2,773	-20
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangyin Xiefeng	4,853	4,853	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Benniu Port, Changzhou	21,427	21,547	120
Polyvinyl chloride	Hangzhou port logistics	153	153	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangsu Zhengsheng	3,684	3,684	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Quick biography of Xiangyu in Shanghai	84	84	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Changxing, Zhejiang	639	639	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangsu Yanjin	3,682	3,682	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Xiamen Xiangyu (Benniu Port)	300	300	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Xiamen Xiangyu (Shanghai Xiangyu)	230	230	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang tomorrow (Benniu Port)	298	298	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang tomorrow (Zhejiang International Trade)	149	149	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Products Zhongda Chemical Industry (Benniu Port)	450	450	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Products Zhongda Chemical Industry (Railway Changxing)	300	300	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Yongan Capital (Benniu Port)	1,200	1,200	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Specialty petrochemical (Benniu Port)	2,399	2,399	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Specialty Petrochemical (Zhejiang International Trade)	1,800	1,800	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Sino-Thai Duojing (Zhejiang International Trade)	1,238	1,238	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Sinotrans East China	1,387	1,387	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Tiantai International Trade (Benniu Port)	581	581	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Tiantai International Trade (Zhejiang Jianfeng)	64	64	0
PVC subtotal		57,988	58,088	100
Total		57,988	58,088	100