China Urea Price Index:

According to calculations from Feiduo data, the urea small pellet price index on January 16 was 2,333.45, a decrease of 6.68 from yesterday, a month-on-month decrease of 0.29%, and a year-on-year decrease of 16.39%.

Urea futures market:

Today, the opening price of the Urea UR405 contract is 2081, the highest price is 2107, the lowest price is 2065, the settlement price is 2084, and the closing price is 2075. The closing price has increased by 13 compared with the settlement price of the previous trading day, up 0.63% month-on-month. The fluctuation range of the whole day is 2065-2107; the basis of the 05 contract in Shandong is 175; the 05 contract has reduced its position by 5757 lots today, and the position held so far is 175,200 lots.

Spot market analysis:

Today, China's urea market prices continued to decline, but prices in East China, Central China and South China were slightly adjusted, and the market showed signs of slight recovery.

Specifically, prices in Northeast China fell to 2,340 - 2,390 yuan/ton. Prices in North China fell to 2,100 - 2,380 yuan/ton. Prices in East China rose to 2,230 - 2,310 yuan/ton. Prices in South China rose to 2,400 - 2,430 yuan/ton. The price of small and medium-sized particles in Central China fell to 2,220 - 2,420 yuan/ton, and the price of large particles fell to 2,390 - 2,430 yuan/ton. Prices in Northwest China fell to 2,230 - 2,240 yuan/ton. Prices in Southwest China are stable at 2,300 - 2,800 yuan/ton.

Market outlook forecast:

In terms of factories, manufacturers shipped early orders, but the number of orders to be issued continues to shrink. Some companies cut prices and collect orders. Some regional factories were affected by follow-up downstream demand and slightly increased their factory quotations. In terms of the market, the market showed slight signs of bottoming out and rebound. New orders were slightly increased, and downstream followed up appropriately. The market atmosphere has improved compared with the previous period. On the supply side, although supply shows signs of improvement, the current recovery rate is slow and may not be as expected. In terms of demand, agricultural demand in some mainstream areas has increased slightly, and agricultural demand purchases have been followed up appropriately; industrial goods have been poor, and urea companies have mostly attracted downstream factories to purchase at lower prices, and the focus of transactions has been continuously shifted.

On the whole, the current urea market transactions have improved slightly, and agricultural demand has followed up in a small number of regions. It is expected that the urea market price will stop falling and stabilize in a short period of time.