PVC: Short-term futures prices suppress Masukang. On Black Friday, spot transaction prices weaken

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January 5, 2024, 4:17 PM

PVC futures analysis: January 5 V2405 contract opening price: 5891, highest price: 5896, lowest price: 5814, position: 917324, settlement price: 5843, yesterday settlement: 5913, down: 70, daily trading volume: 802385 lots, precipitated capital: 3.74 billion, capital inflow: 156 million.

List of comprehensive prices by region: yuan / ton

Area	Price 1.4	Price 1.5	Rise and fall	Remarks
North China	5510-5540	5450-5480	-60/-60	Send to cash remittance
East China	5630-5690	5580-5630	-50/-60	Cash out of the warehouse
South China	5680-5720	5650-5680	-30/-40	Cash out of the warehouse
Northeast China	5500-5680	5500-5650	0/-30	Send to cash remittance
Central China	5590-5700	5570-5650	-20/-50	Send to cash remittance
Southwest	5500-5600	5480-5600	-20/0	Kuti / send to

PVC spot market: China PVC market mainstream transaction prices slightly lower, the spot market weakening. Compared with the valuation, it fell by 60 yuan / ton in North China, 50-60 yuan / ton in East China, 30-40 yuan / ton in South China, 30 yuan / ton in Northeast China, 20-50 yuan / ton in Central China and 20 yuan / ton in Southwest China. Upstream PVC production enterprises factory prices down 20-30-50 yuan / ton, some enterprises temporarily stable quotations, but happen to be Friday generation contracts signed not much. The futures price continued to weaken and showed a certain downward trend. The trader's price offer was lower than that of yesterday, and it was difficult for the high price to have an actual transaction. After the futures price went down, the supply price advantage of the point price was reflected, and the basis offer changed little. Among them, the basis difference offer 05 contract in East China-(200-250-320), South China 05 contract-(150-200), North 05 contract-(550-600-630), Southwest 05 contract-(260) After the downward price of futures, the purchasing enthusiasm of the lower reaches has been improved, but the purchase order prices of some enterprises are still on the low side, and trading in the spot market has improved slightly.

Futures point of view: PVC2405 contract night trading price began to weaken, the overall decline is relatively obvious. After the start of morning trading, the futures price continued to fluctuate at a relatively low level, and it was still mainly arranged at a low level in the afternoon, and was in a weak situation throughout the day. 2405 contracts range from 5814 to 5896 throughout the day, with a spread of 82. 05 contracts with an increase of 48337 positions and 917324 positions so far. The 2409 contract closed at 5928, with 61082 positions.

PVC Future Forecast:

Futures: PVC2405 contract futures run to break the low horizontal market mode, the low point refreshes and approaches the lower rail support level, the technical level shows that the opening of the third rail of the Bollinger belt (13, 13, 2) expands, the lower rail of the middle rail is obvious, and the KD line and MACD line of the daily level show a dead-fork trend, so the overall technical level shows the short trend of futures prices, increasing positions by more than 48000 hands on Friday. In terms of trading, the short opening of 29.0% is compared with the increase of 22.2%, and the last position has not been closed, considering that the market is also dominated by short positions. On the whole, we think that the short-term price or still continue to take the postgraduate entrance examination under the rail support position, observe the performance in the range of 5750-5800.

Spot aspect: The downward price of the futures and current markets weakens the market atmosphere again. On the one hand, the downward point price of the futures price improves, the spot market buys down, but the spot market does not buy up. On the other hand, the continuous short-opening suppression makes the atmosphere of the two cities bearish. At present, the spot market may face greater pressure, resulting in an analysis of the views of later generations. Some people are more bearish, but some lead to the sound of bottom reading. The supply and demand level is still good production, demand constraints and the fundamentals of seasonal accumulation lead to the increase of short chips. Under the current time node, the introduction of macro and policy ports may be insufficient, so it is difficult for PVC to perform well before the Spring Festival without external stimulation. In the outer disk, international oil prices fell in volatile trading, as the sharp increase in gasoline and distillate depots in the United States exceeded the decline in crude oil stocks than expected positive support for the market. On the whole, in the short term, the PVC spot market may still be dominated by small-scale consolidation.

PVC spread arbitrage analysis:

Arbitrage Analysis of PVC spread
PVC	Contract price difference	Price 1.4	Price 1.5	Rate of change
	V2405 collection	5891	5824	-67
	Average spot price in East China	5660	5605	-55
	Average spot price in South China	5700	5665	-35
	PVC2405 basis difference	-231	-219	12
	V2409 collection	5999	5928	-71
	V2405-2409 close	-108	-104	4
	PP2405 collection	7450	7377	-73
	Plastic L2405 collection	8146	8127	-19
	V--PP basis difference	-1559	-1553	6
	Vmure-L basis difference of plastics	-2255	-2303	-48

China PVC Index: according to Tuduoduo data, China calcium Carbide PVC spot Index fell 42.68, or 0.759%, to 5582.2 on January 5. The ethylene PVC spot index was 5871.51, down 39.74, or 0.672%, while the calcium carbide index fell, the ethylene index fell, and the ethylene-calcium carbide index spread was 289.31.

PVC warehouse receipt daily:

Variety	Warehouse / branch warehouse	1.4 warehouse receipt volume	1.5 warehouse orders	change
Polyvinyl chloride	China Reserve shares	2,245	2,245	0
	Guangzhou materials	963	963	0
	China Central Reserve Nanjing	1,282	1,282	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Cosco sea logistics	1,195	1,195	0
	Zhenjiang Middle and far Sea	1,195	1,195	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang International Trade	4,806	4,806	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Peak supply chain	2,813	2,813	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangyin Xiefeng	4,092	4,655	563
Polyvinyl chloride	Benniu Port, Changzhou	20,458	20,458	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Hangzhou port logistics	153	153	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangsu Zhengsheng	3,495	3,495	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Quick biography of Xiangyu in Shanghai	0	84	84
Polyvinyl chloride	Changxing, Zhejiang	470	570	100
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangsu Yanjin	3,322	3,322	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Xiamen Xiangyu (Benniu Port)	300	300	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Xiamen Xiangyu (Shanghai Xiangyu)	230	230	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang tomorrow (Benniu Port)	298	298	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang tomorrow (Zhejiang International Trade)	149	149	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Products Zhongda Chemical Industry (Benniu Port)	450	450	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Products Zhongda Chemical Industry (Railway Changxing)	300	300	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Yongan Capital (Benniu Port)	1,200	1,200	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Specialty petrochemical (Benniu Port)	2,399	2,399	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Specialty Petrochemical (Zhejiang International Trade)	1,800	1,800	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Sino-Thai Duojing (Zhejiang International Trade)	1,238	1,238	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Sinotrans East China	687	687	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Tiantai International Trade (Benniu Port)	581	581	0
PVC subtotal		52,681	53,428	747
Total		52,681	53,428	747