PVC: The futures price closed sideways at a low position, and the position was lightened. The spot continued to be consolidated in a narrow range.

90,233

January 3, 2024, 4:32 PM

PVC futures analysis: January 3 V2405 contract opening price: 5913, highest price: 5948, lowest price: 5875, position: 859255, settlement price: 5911, yesterday settlement: 5897, down: 14, daily trading volume: 729268 lots, precipitated capital: 3.579 billion, capital outflow: 33.15 million.

List of comprehensive prices by region: yuan / ton

Area	Price 1.2	Price 1.3	Rise and fall	Remarks
North China	5480-5560	5500-5570	20/10	Send to cash remittance
East China	5640-5720	5640-5730	0/10	Cash out of the warehouse
South China	5680-5730	5680-5730	0/0	Cash out of the warehouse
Northeast China	5550-5750	5550-5750	0/0	Send to cash remittance
Central China	5550-5680	5560-5700	10/20	Send to cash remittance
Southwest	5550-5600	5550-5600	0/0	Kuti / send to

PVC spot market: China PVC market mainstream transaction prices do not change much, more regions maintain wait-and-see. Valuation comparison: North China rose 10-20 yuan / ton, East China rose 10 yuan / ton, South China and Northeast China were stable, Central China rose 10-20 yuan / ton, and Southwest China was stable. The ex-factory price of upstream PVC production enterprises has been raised by 30-50 yuan per ton, and most enterprises have maintained stable quotations. The futures price trend is slightly stronger in the afternoon, so the overall quotation in the spot market does not change much, basically in the morning, and the basis offer does not change much. Although the point price and the one-bite price coexist, the point price source has no price advantage for the time being. Among them, East China basis offer 05 contract-(220-270-330), South China 05 contract-(200), North 05 contract-(600-640) Southwest 05 contract-(260), the terminal hanging order enthusiasm is poor, bargain replenishment, some areas wait-and-see atmosphere is strong, the spot market trading atmosphere is light.

Futures point of view: PVC2405 contract night trading narrow range volatility, futures price volatility is relatively small. Prices rose slightly after the start of morning trading, followed by intraday shocks, and continued to rise for the second time in the afternoon, but the extent of the second rise was small. 2405 contracts range from 5876 to 5948 throughout the day, with a spread of 72. 05 contracts with an increase of 11629 positions and 859255 positions so far. The 2409 contract closed at 6046, with 54443 positions.

PVC Future Forecast:

Futures: & the operation of nbsp; PVC2405 contract futures is in line with our expectations, trading sideways in the low range, but the price closed slightly higher at the end of the day, showing a certain position reduction trend. First of all, from the overall commodity point of view, at the close of midday trading, the main contracts of Chinese futures rose and fell differently. The container transport index (European line) rose by 23%, glass by more than 4%, coking coal and urea by more than 3%, pulp, iron ore, soda ash, coke and alumina by more than 2%. In terms of decline, SC crude oil fell by more than 2%, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), bean one, butadiene rubber (BR) and caustic soda fell by nearly 2%. Among the many star varieties, the attention of PVC has declined. From the current trend of futures price operation, we think that it will still be arranged sideways in the low range in the short term, and continue to observe the performance of the range 5880-5980.

Spot aspect: & the operation of the nbsp; spot market continues to be weak and the state of low valuation continues. At present, the fundamental variables of PVC are few, but from the point of view of chlor-alkali enterprises, in view of the continuous fermentation of the Red Sea time, the start of alumina has been affected, the price of the product in the two markets has risen sharply, on the contrary, it is relatively bearish and caustic soda, the recent caustic soda whether spot or futures show a relatively weak situation, thus affecting the overall chlor-alkali profits, although PVC is willing to raise the price, but the restriction of helpless demand is still relatively obvious. In the outer disk, international oil prices continued to decline as the New year oil price rise triggered by renewed tensions in the Red Sea evaporated as supply concerns eased and expectations of interest rate cuts in 2024 weakened. In addition, demand growth and compliance with the additional production cuts announced by OPEC in the first quarter are back in focus. On the whole, China's PVC spot market will continue to sort out slightly in the short term.

PVC spread arbitrage analysis:

Arbitrage Analysis of PVC spread
PVC	Contract price difference	Price 1.2	Price 1.3	Rate of change
	V2405 collection	5920	5945	25
	Average spot price in East China	5680	5685	5
	Average spot price in South China	5705	5705	0
	PVC2405 basis difference	-240	-260	-20
	V2409 collection	6028	6046	18
	V2405-2409 close	-108	-101	7
	PP2405 collection	7492	7477	-15
	Plastic L2405 collection	8223	8196	-27
	V--PP basis difference	-1572	-1532	40
	Vmure-L basis difference of plastics	-2303	-2251	52

China PVC Index: according to Tudoduo data, the spot index of China calcium Carbide PVC rose 6.44, or 0.114%, to 5639.6 on January 3. The ethylene method PVC spot index is 5915.4, up 1.47, the range is 0.025%, the calcium carbide method index rises, the ethylene method index rises, the ethylene method-calcium carbide method index price difference is 275.8.

PVC warehouse receipt daily:

Variety	Warehouse / branch warehouse	1.2 warehouse receipt quantity	1.3 warehouse receipt volume	change
Polyvinyl chloride	China Reserve shares	2,245	2,245	0
	Guangzhou materials	963	963	0
	China Central Reserve Nanjing	1,282	1,282	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Cosco sea logistics	782	1,195	413
	Zhenjiang Middle and far Sea	782	1,195	413
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang International Trade	4,806	4,806	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Peak supply chain	2,813	2,813	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangyin Xiefeng	4,032	4,032	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Benniu Port, Changzhou	20,344	20,458	114
Polyvinyl chloride	Hangzhou port logistics	153	153	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangsu Zhengsheng	3,495	3,495	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Changxing, Zhejiang	470	470	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangsu Yanjin	3,322	3,322	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Xiamen Xiangyu (Benniu Port)	300	300	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Xiamen Xiangyu (Shanghai Xiangyu)	230	230	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang tomorrow (Benniu Port)	298	298	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang tomorrow (Zhejiang International Trade)	149	149	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Products Zhongda Chemical Industry (Benniu Port)	450	450	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Products Zhongda Chemical Industry (Railway Changxing)	300	300	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Yongan Capital (Benniu Port)	1,200	1,200	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Specialty petrochemical (Benniu Port)	2,399	2,399	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Specialty Petrochemical (Zhejiang International Trade)	1,800	1,800	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Sino-Thai Duojing (Zhejiang International Trade)	1,238	1,238	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Sinotrans East China	687	687	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Tiantai International Trade (Benniu Port)	581	581	0
PVC subtotal		52,094	52,621	527
Total		52,094	52,621	527