PVC: The futures price support level has worked slightly. Both long and short sides have opened equal positions, and the spot is adjusted slightly flexibly.

89,593

January 2, 2024, 4:59 PM

PVC futures analysis: January 2 V2405 contract opening price: 5880, highest price: 5928, lowest price: 5856, position: 870884, settlement price: 5897, yesterday settlement: 5906, down: 9, daily trading volume: 523889 lots, precipitated capital: 3.609 billion, capital inflow: 86.83 million.

List of comprehensive prices by region: yuan / ton

Area	Price 12.29	Price 1.2	Rise and fall	Remarks
North China	5450-5550	5480-5560	30/10	Send to cash remittance
East China	5630-5690	5640-5720	10/30	Cash out of the warehouse
South China	5670-5720	5680-5730	10/10	Cash out of the warehouse
Northeast China	5550-5750	5550-5750	0/0	Send to cash remittance
Central China	5550-5560	5550-5680	0/20	Send to cash remittance
Southwest	5500-5570	5550-5600	50/30	Kuti / send to

PVC spot market: China PVC market mainstream transaction price range is mainly sorted out, and the price is adjusted flexibly. Compared with the valuation, North China rose 10-30 yuan / ton, East China 10-30 yuan / ton, South China 10 yuan / ton, Northeast China stable, Central China 20 yuan / ton, Southwest China 30-50 yuan / ton. Upstream PVC production enterprises mostly maintain stable ex-factory prices, individual enterprises in order to stimulate the source of shipments a small large discount. The futures market first fell and then rose, and the spot market traders' early price offer changed little compared with last Friday, and the market point price and the market price coexisted, and the basis offer was slightly stronger. Among them, East China basis offer 05 contract-(250-270-330), South China 05 contract-(150-200), North 05 contract-(600-640), Southwest 05 contract-(260), spot price supply has price advantage in the morning However, the lower order price in the lower reaches leads to few actual transactions, the afternoon futures upstream, the point price advantage disappears, the downstream purchasing enthusiasm is not high, and the trading atmosphere in the spot market is weak.

Futures point of view: PVC2405 contract prices fell slightly after the start of early trading, and then bottomed out. Futures prices rose to repair the decline in early trading, and continued to shake above 5900 after rising in the afternoon until the end of the day. 2405 contracts range from 5856 to 5928 throughout the day, with a spread of 72. 05 contracts with an increase of 15026 positions and 870884 positions so far. The 2409 contract closed at 6028, with 52489 positions.

PVC Future Forecast:

Futures: PVC2405 contract futures run as we expected, showed a certain support performance around 5850, did not effectively fall below this position and then the price bottomed out and rebounded, in terms of trading, long and short positions are neck and neck, of which 24.4% short opening ratio opened 24.9% more. The technical level shows that although the three tracks of the Bolin belt (13, 13, 2) are still open, the downward direction of the middle rail is obvious, and the KD line and MACD line at the daily level still show dead forks. The first trading day of 2024 closed at noon, and the main contracts of Chinese futures were mixed. At present, the short-term PVC futures may still test the low range position, we still maintain the previous judgment, the operation of the futures price may still need to observe the performance of the 5870-5980 range.

Spot aspect: The opening price of the first day after the festival bottomed out and rebounded. Judging from the trend of the market, the operation of the futures price was OK, but the spot market showed a certain weakness, especially in terms of transaction, although the first day point price and a mouthful price coexisted, but the spot market was in a state of poor transaction, on the one hand, the order was on the low side in the morning, on the other hand, the price had no great reference significance. Therefore, although the rebound in futures prices did not drive the atmosphere of the spot market. From the point of view of the two major products of chlor-alkali enterprises, caustic soda is driven by alumina to show a certain strong trend, but the fundamentals of PVC are weak. Although the loss of individual products is relatively obvious and the valuation is low, the demand and real estate constraints are always difficult to improve. Especially in the period before the Spring Festival, there are no additional factors to stimulate, the two cities may still show a weak trend, the overall short-term spot prices of PVC may still continue the trend of small fluctuations.

PVC spread arbitrage analysis:

Arbitrage Analysis of PVC spread
PVC	Contract price difference	Price 12.29	Price 1.2	Rate of change
	V2405 collection	5879	5920	41
	Average spot price in East China	5660	5680	20
	Average spot price in South China	5695	5705	10
	PVC2405 basis difference	-219	-240	-21
	V2409 collection	5987	6028	41
	V2405-2409 close	-108	-108	0
	PP2405 collection	7560	7492	-68
	Plastic L2405 collection	8280	8223	-57
	V--PP basis difference	-1681	-1572	109
	Vmure-L basis difference of plastics	-2401	-2303	98

China PVC Index: the spot index of China's calcium carbide PVC rose 23.28, or 0.415%, to 5633.16 on January 2, according to Tudor data. The PVC spot index of ethylene method was 5913.93, down 8.39%, with a range of 0.142%. The calcium carbide index rose, the ethylene index decreased, and the ethylene-calcium carbide index spread was 280.77.

PVC warehouse receipt daily:

Variety	Warehouse / branch warehouse	12.29 warehouse orders	1.2 warehouse receipt quantity	change
Polyvinyl chloride	China Reserve shares	2,245	2,245	0
	Guangzhou materials	963	963	0
	China Central Reserve Nanjing	1,282	1,282	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Cosco sea logistics	584	782	198
	Zhenjiang Middle and far Sea	584	782	198
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang International Trade	4,806	4,806	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Peak supply chain	2,813	2,813	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangyin Xiefeng	4,032	4,032	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Benniu Port, Changzhou	19,970	20,344	374
Polyvinyl chloride	Hangzhou port logistics	153	153	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangsu Zhengsheng	3,495	3,495	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Changxing, Zhejiang	470	470	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangsu Yanjin	3,322	3,322	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Xiamen Xiangyu (Benniu Port)	300	300	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Xiamen Xiangyu (Shanghai Xiangyu)	230	230	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang tomorrow (Benniu Port)	298	298	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang tomorrow (Zhejiang International Trade)	149	149	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Products Zhongda Chemical Industry (Benniu Port)	450	450	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Products Zhongda Chemical Industry (Railway Changxing)	300	300	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Yongan Capital (Benniu Port)	1,200	1,200	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Specialty petrochemical (Benniu Port)	2,399	2,399	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Specialty Petrochemical (Zhejiang International Trade)	1,800	1,800	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Sino-Thai Duojing (Zhejiang International Trade)	1,238	1,238	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Sinotrans East China	687	687	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Tiantai International Trade (Benniu Port)	581	581	0
PVC subtotal		51,522	52,094	572
Total		51,522	52,094	572