PVC: Futures prices showed five consecutive negative declines, technical closing lines were short, and the spot market continued to decline

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December 29, 2023, 4:38 PM

PVC futures analysis: December 29th V2405 contract opening price: 5923, highest price: 5946, lowest price: 5873, position: 855858, settlement price: 5906, yesterday settlement: 5959, down: 53, daily trading volume: 812753 lots, precipitated capital: 3.522 billion, capital inflow: 68.82 million.

List of comprehensive prices by region: yuan / ton

Area	Price 12.28	Price 12.29	Rise and fall	Remarks
North China	5500-5570	5450-5550	-50/-20	Send to cash remittance
East China	5650-5720	5630-5690	-20/-30	Cash out of the warehouse
South China	5700-5740	5670-5720	-30/-20	Cash out of the warehouse
Northeast China	5550-5750	5550-5750	0/0	Send to cash remittance
Central China	5570-5580	5550-5560	-20/-20	Send to cash remittance
Southwest	5550-5620	5500-5570	-50/-50	Kuti / send to

PVC spot market: China PVC market mainstream transaction prices still fell again, the market atmosphere is not good. Compared with the valuation, it fell 20-50 yuan / ton in North China, 20-30 yuan / ton in East China, 20-30 yuan / ton in South China, stable in Northeast China, 20 yuan / ton in Central China and 50 yuan / ton in Southwest China. Upstream PVC production enterprises factory price part of the reduction of 20-50 yuan / ton, some enterprises happen to wait and see prices on Friday. The futures market is weak again, and the market is not operating well. The price offered by traders in the spot market in the morning is lower than that of yesterday, but it is difficult to make an actual deal. After the futures price has gone down, the spot price is relatively active, and the purchasing enthusiasm of the lower reaches has been improved. Part of the basis offer is slightly stronger. Among them, East China basis offer 05 contract-(250-300-350), South China 05 contract-(200), North 05 contract-(600-650), Southwest 05 contract-(260), as a whole, most of the downstream intended to purchase pre-sale sources, low prices compared with the previous period increased, the spot market trading atmosphere is OK.

From the perspective of futures: & the night price of nbsp; PVC2405 contract is mainly arranged in a narrow range, and the fluctuation of the futures price is lack of certain direction. Futures prices weakened slightly after the start of morning trading and fluctuated in a small range at low levels in the afternoon. 2405 contracts range from 5873 to 5946 throughout the day, with a spread of 73. 05 contracts with an increase of 24361 positions and 855858 positions so far. The 2401 contract closed at 5599, with 28004 positions.

PVC Future Forecast:

Futures: & the operation of nbsp; PVC2405 contract futures continued to increase positions and fell, and the short opening was relatively obvious. In terms of transaction, 26.3% of them opened more than 22.7%. The recent operation of futures prices began to show a five-streak decline at the high, and today's low pierced the lower rail support level, which did not work, and did not change significantly after finishing in the low and narrow range for a long time in the afternoon. New Year's Day small holiday comes on Friday and there is no night plate, the plate still showed a trend of increasing positions, thus it can be seen that the current air mood is relatively strong. At the technical level, it shows that the middle rail of the Bolin belt (13, 13, 2) is downward, and the KD line and MACD line of the daily line are all dead forks. In the short term, the operation of the forward price observes the support performance of 5850 in the front low direction.

Spot aspect: period falls continuously in the two cities, the overall operation atmosphere of the spot market is slightly tired, but the point price in the low range is OK, and the inquiry enthusiasm of part of the forward pre-sale source is also increased, so the rigid demand of the spot market exists, the situation of low PVC valuation is also the consensus of the industry chain, and the long-term downward market, PVC unit loss is more obvious. However, the fundamentals of high inventory and weak PVC caused by the game of supply and demand are always difficult to break, and the poor performance of real estate data restricts the overall rebound peak of PVC. On the outer disk, international oil prices fell 3 per cent, and more shipping companies said they were ready to resume routes to the Red Sea, easing fears of supply disruptions due to rising tensions in the Middle East. On the whole, it is difficult to have better variable factors for the weak fundamentals of PVC in the short term, and the spot price of PVC may still be low, but the lower space may be limited.

PVC spread arbitrage analysis:

Arbitrage Analysis of PVC spread
PVC	Contract price difference	Price 12.28	Price 12.29	Rate of change
	V2405 collection	5933	5879	-54
	Average spot price in East China	5685	5660	-25
	Average spot price in South China	5720	5695	-25
	PVC2405 basis difference	-248	-219	29
	V2409 collection	6040	5987	-53
	V2405-2409 close	-107	-108	-1
	PP2405 collection	7619	7560	-59
	Plastic L2405 collection	8291	8280	-11
	V--PP basis difference	-1686	-1681	5
	Vmure-L basis difference of plastics	-2358	-2401	-43

China PVC Index: according to Tuduoduo data, the Chinese calcium carbide PVC spot index fell 27.16, or 0.482%, to 5609.88 on December 29th. The ethylene PVC spot index was 5922.32, down 11.88, or 0.2%. The calcium carbide index fell, the ethylene index fell, and the ethylene-calcium carbide index spread was 312.44.

PVC warehouse receipt daily:

Variety	Warehouse / branch warehouse	12.28 warehouse orders	12.29 warehouse orders	change
Polyvinyl chloride	China Reserve shares	2,245	2,245	0
	Guangzhou materials	963	963	0
	China Central Reserve Nanjing	1,282	1,282	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Cosco sea logistics	584	584	0
	Zhenjiang Middle and far Sea	584	584	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang International Trade	4,806	4,806	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Peak supply chain	2,813	2,813	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangyin Xiefeng	3,607	4,032	425
Polyvinyl chloride	Benniu Port, Changzhou	19,791	19,970	179
Polyvinyl chloride	Hangzhou port logistics	153	153	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangsu Zhengsheng	3,495	3,495	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Changxing, Zhejiang	470	470	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangsu Yanjin	3,322	3,322	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Xiamen Xiangyu (Benniu Port)	300	300	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Xiamen Xiangyu (Shanghai Xiangyu)	230	230	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang tomorrow (Benniu Port)	298	298	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang tomorrow (Zhejiang International Trade)	149	149	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Products Zhongda Chemical Industry (Benniu Port)	450	450	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Products Zhongda Chemical Industry (Railway Changxing)	300	300	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Yongan Capital (Benniu Port)	1,200	1,200	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Specialty petrochemical (Benniu Port)	2,399	2,399	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Specialty Petrochemical (Zhejiang International Trade)	1,800	1,800	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Sino-Thai Duojing (Zhejiang International Trade)	1,238	1,238	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Sinotrans East China	687	687	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Tiantai International Trade (Benniu Port)	581	581	0
PVC subtotal		50,918	51,522	604
Total		50,918	51,522	604