PVC: Futures volatility is narrowing and above the middle track, both long and short positions are ready to go, and spot prices are flexibly adjusted.

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December 19, 2023, 4:34 PM

PVC futures analysis: December 19 V2405 contract opening price: 5992, highest price: 6036, lowest price: 5976, position: 664864, settlement price: 6006, yesterday settlement: 6011, down: 5, daily trading volume: 804635 lots, precipitated capital: 2.79 billion, capital inflow: 67.01 million.

List of comprehensive prices by region: yuan / ton

Area	Price 12.18	Price 12.19	Rise and fall	Remarks
North China	5600-5630	5600-5640	0/10	Send to cash remittance
East China	5690-5760	5690-5790	0/30	Cash out of the warehouse
South China	5760-5820	5760-5830	0/10	Cash out of the warehouse
Northeast China	5500-5700	5500-5700	0/0	Send to cash remittance
Central China	5640-5660	5640-5660	0/0	Send to cash remittance
Southwest	5560-5680	5560-5680	0/0	Kuti / send to

PVC spot market: China PVC market mainstream transaction prices are arranged in a narrow range, and spot prices in various regions are adjusted flexibly. Compared with the valuation, the high-end rose 10 yuan / ton in North China, 30 yuan / ton in East China, 10 yuan / ton in South China, temporary stability in Northeast China, temporary stability in Central China and temporary stability in Southwest China. Most of the ex-factory prices of upstream PVC production enterprises remain motionless and stable, and there is no obvious trace of adjustment. Futures prices rose slightly in early trading and gave up the increase in the afternoon after the change of the main force. As a result, the trend of spot market prices was slightly different, with some spot prices rising slightly in the morning, but mainly in areas with higher quotations in the early days, and the extent of the increase disappeared in the afternoon. There are both spot market and spot price offers, including East China basis offer 05 contract-(220-260-320), South China 05 contract-(160-180), North 05 contract-(550-580), Southwest 05 contract-(260). Looking at the spot market as a whole, the high-price offer is difficult to close the deal, some of the real orders are discussed in a small way, and the downstream procurement is not high.

From the perspective of futures: PVC2405 contract opened lower in night trading but fell slightly, and then bottomed out and rebounded slightly higher. Futures prices rose further after the start of morning trading. However, the lack of strength did not exceed the high before yesterday, and the afternoon price weakened and returned to the opening price. 2405 contracts fluctuate in the range of 5976-6036 throughout the day, with a spread of 60,05and an increase of 15642 positions in contracts, with 664864 positions so far. The 2401 contract closed at 5840, with 229842 positions.

PVC Future Forecast:

Futures: PVC2405 contract futures significantly increased positions yesterday, long and short positions entered the market, today's competition tends to ease, in terms of transactions, which opened 24.1% compared with 23.2% more, slightly suppressed this also led to a slight weakening of futures prices. The overall volatility range is narrowing, that is, the intraday market looks volatile, but when the range is narrowed, it is still more difficult to judge the trend. The technical level shows that the opening of the three tracks of the Bollinger belt (13, 13, 2) is narrowed, the future price is located above the middle rail of the Bollinger belt, and the 05 contract has been running horizontally between the middle and upper tracks recently. from the current trend, the high horizontal trade is disadvantageous to the bulls. As a whole, the pressure above the operation of futures prices in the short term is still obvious, and the resistance performance in the range of 6050-6100 is observed.

Spot aspect: First of all, after the change, the 05 contract is in a relatively horizontal state recently, and there is hedging demand for spot merchants, which leads to poor delivery rhythm in the spot market, no matter the spot price or the downstream inquiry of the oral price. and the high price is more difficult to close the transaction, so some of the hedging policies of the 05 contract enter, but for the medium and long term, the 05 contract and the May market are still looking forward to. There are also some multi-single layout on the disk, so the trend of futures prices is not clear under the long-short comparison. However, from the point of view of the time stage, whether it is the futures market or the spot market before the Spring Festival, there will still be some operating pressure, and there are still enough chips for short sellers in the case of accumulation of stocks in the fourth quarter. In the outer disk, oil prices rose nearly 2%, and the Houthi attack on ships in the Red Sea raised concerns about oil supply disruptions. On the whole, the spot market may still be dominated by small shocks in the short term.

PVC spread arbitrage analysis:

Arbitrage Analysis of PVC spread
PVC	Contract price difference	Price 12.18	Price 12.19	Rate of change
	V2401 collection	5992	5995	3
	Average spot price in East China	5725	5740	15
	Average spot price in South China	5790	5795	5
	PVC2401 basis difference	-267	-255	12
	V2405 collection	6078	6083	5
	V2401-2405 closed	-86	-88	-2
	PP2401 collection	7452	7458	6
	Plastic L2401 collection	8111	8122	11
	V--PP basis difference	-1460	-1463	-3
	Vmure-L basis difference of plastics	-2119	-2127	-8

China PVC Index: according to Tudou data, the Chinese calcium carbide PVC spot index rose 6.62, or 0.116%, to 5696.87 on December 19th. The ethylene method PVC spot index is 6006.09, up 6.87, the range is 0.115%, the calcium carbide method index rises, the ethylene method index rises, the ethylene method-calcium carbide method index spread 309.22.

PVC warehouse receipt daily:

Variety	Warehouse / branch warehouse	12.18 warehouse orders	12.19 warehouse orders	change
Polyvinyl chloride	China Reserve shares	1,892	2,005	113
	Guangzhou materials	850	963	113
	China Central Reserve Nanjing	1,042	1,042	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Cosco sea logistics	584	584	0
	Zhenjiang Middle and far Sea	584	584	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang International Trade	4,806	4,806	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Peak supply chain	2,813	2,813	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangyin Xiefeng	3,267	3,607	340
Polyvinyl chloride	Benniu Port, Changzhou	18,405	18,405	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Hangzhou port logistics	153	153	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangsu Zhengsheng	3,595	3,595	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Changxing, Zhejiang	470	470	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangsu Yanjin	3,322	3,322	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Xiamen Xiangyu (Benniu Port)	300	300	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Xiamen Xiangyu (Shanghai Xiangyu)	230	230	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang tomorrow (Benniu Port)	298	298	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang tomorrow (Zhejiang International Trade)	149	149	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Products Zhongda Chemical Industry (Benniu Port)	450	450	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Products Zhongda Chemical Industry (Railway Changxing)	300	300	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Yongan Capital (Benniu Port)	1,200	1,200	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Specialty petrochemical (Benniu Port)	2,399	2,399	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Specialty Petrochemical (Zhejiang International Trade)	1,800	1,800	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Sino-Thai Duojing (Zhejiang International Trade)	1,238	1,238	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Sinotrans East China	487	487	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Tiantai International Trade (Benniu Port)	581	581	0
PVC subtotal		48,739	49,192	453
Total		48,739	49,192	453