PVC: Futures increased positions by 110,000 lots, causing trouble or fighting for territory, and spot prices weakened slightly

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December 18, 2023, 4:11 PM

PVC futures analysis: December 18 V2405 contract opening price: 6051, highest price: 6075, lowest price: 5960, position: 649222, settlement price: 6011, yesterday settlement: 6027, down: 16, daily trading volume: 979582 lots, precipitated capital: 2.723 billion, capital inflow: 442 million.

List of comprehensive prices by region: yuan / ton

Area	Price 12.15	Price 12.18	Rise and fall	Remarks
North China	5600-5650	5600-5630	0/-20	Send to cash remittance
East China	5730-5800	5690-5760	-40/-40	Cash out of the warehouse
South China	5800-5840	5760-5820	-40/-20	Cash out of the warehouse
Northeast China	5550-5750	5500-5700	-50/-50	Send to cash remittance
Central China	5690-5710	5640-5660	-50/-50	Send to cash remittance
Southwest	5560-5680	5560-5680	0/0	Kuti / send to

PVC spot market: China PVC market mainstream transaction prices weakened and began to perform poorly at the beginning of the week. Compared with the valuation, it fell by 20 yuan / ton in North China, 40 yuan / ton in East China, 20-40 yuan / ton in South China, 50 yuan / ton in Northeast China and 50 yuan / ton in Central China. Southwest China is stable for the time being. The ex-factory price of upstream PVC production enterprises was reduced by 50 yuan / ton individually, and most enterprises maintained wait-and-see, but there were few contracts signed on Monday. The main change in futures 05 contract shock weakened, the spot market traders in all regions of the price offer slightly lower than last Friday, but after the futures price downward, the point price supply part has a price advantage. The basis narrowed slightly, including East China basis offer 05 contract-(220-260-320), South China 05 contract-(150-180), North 05 contract-(550-580), Southwest 05 contract-(260). On the whole, the downstream procurement is not high, most enterprises choose to wait and see temporarily, the intention to take the price is low, the actual transaction is rare, and the trading atmosphere in the spot market is not good.

Futures point of view: PVC2405 contract completed the main change, Friday night trading opened that is slightly weaker. Prices fell significantly in early trading on Monday, with a deep downward trend after falling below the prefix, and afternoon prices were sorted out in a relatively low and narrow range. 2405 the contract fluctuates from 5960 to 6075 throughout the day, with a spread of 115,01and an increase of 111228 positions in the contract, with 649222 positions so far. The 2401 contract closed at 5824, with 264864 positions.

PVC Future Forecast:

Futures: PVC2405 contract futures significantly increase positions, first of all, the main force to complete the replacement of 2405 contracts to become the main force, but become the main force on the first day to increase the position Yu 110000 hands, of which open 28.0% compared to open 28.5%, from the trading volume point of view, many short positions are quite large positions. However, the trend of the futures price shows a downward trend throughout the day, the technical level shows that the opening of the three tracks of the Bollinger belt (13, 13, 2) is flat, the low point of the price breaks through the position of the middle rail, and the high point continues to approach the upper track. the distance between the three tracks narrows in a continuous horizontal state. Futures as a whole closed in the negative column cross star, in the short term, the futures price after the change of the main force or still facing the trend of horizontal trading between the upper and middle orbits, observe the performance of the 05 contract within the range of 5950-6100.

Spot: first closed at noon, the main Chinese futures contracts fluctuated, most Chinese commodities completed the main change, 2405 contracts due to a longer distance or there is more uncertainty. After the contract has become the main contract, the volume of the futures price has greatly increased, and the long and short positions have entered the market, which has caused the competition for the futures price. it can also be seen that there are different views on the trend of forward contracts in the market. In terms of PVC fundamentals, Taiwan Formosa Plastics PVC for January shipments fell by US $30 / ton, CIF mainland price of US $745 (CFR) and CIF India price of US $770 (CFR). Send US $740 (CFR) to Southeast Asia, and the price decline of Formosa Plastics is slightly negative to some extent. In addition, calcium carbide prices rose slightly over the weekend, but the overall boost to PVC was limited. After the completion of the change of the main force, the weakening trend of 05 contracts is still affecting the spot market. On the whole, spot market prices may face certain adjustment shocks in the short term.

PVC spread arbitrage analysis:

Arbitrage Analysis of PVC spread
PVC	Contract price difference	Price 12.15	Price 12.18	Rate of change
	V2401 collection	5911	5992	81
	Average spot price in East China	5765	5725	-40
	Average spot price in South China	5820	5790	-30
	PVC2401 basis difference	-146	-267	-121
	V2405 collection	6058	6078	20
	V2401-2405 closed	-147	-86	61
	PP2401 collection	7496	7452	-44
	Plastic L2401 collection	8103	8111	8
	V--PP basis difference	-1585	-1460	125
	Vmure-L basis difference of plastics	-2192	-2119	73

China PVC Index: according to Tuduoduo data, the spot index of China's calcium carbide PVC fell 27.17, or 0.475%, to 5690.25 on December 18. The ethylene PVC spot index was 5999.22, up 14.69, with a range of 0.254%, while the calcium carbide index decreased, the ethylene index rose, and the ethylene-calcium carbide index spread was 308.97.

PVC warehouse receipt daily:

Variety	Warehouse / branch warehouse	12.15 warehouse orders	12.18 warehouse orders	change
Polyvinyl chloride	China Reserve shares	1,892	1,892	0
	Guangzhou materials	850	850	0
	China Central Reserve Nanjing	1,042	1,042	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Cosco sea logistics	584	584	0
	Zhenjiang Middle and far Sea	584	584	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang International Trade	4,806	4,806	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Peak supply chain	2,813	2,813	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangyin Xiefeng	3,087	3,267	180
Polyvinyl chloride	Benniu Port, Changzhou	18,405	18,405	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Hangzhou port logistics	153	153	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangsu Zhengsheng	3,595	3,595	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Changxing, Zhejiang	470	470	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangsu Yanjin	3,322	3,322	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Xiamen Xiangyu (Benniu Port)	300	300	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Xiamen Xiangyu (Shanghai Xiangyu)	230	230	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang tomorrow (Benniu Port)	298	298	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang tomorrow (Zhejiang International Trade)	149	149	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Products Zhongda Chemical Industry (Benniu Port)	450	450	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Products Zhongda Chemical Industry (Railway Changxing)	300	300	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Yongan Capital (Benniu Port)	1,200	1,200	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Specialty petrochemical (Benniu Port)	2,399	2,399	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Specialty Petrochemical (Zhejiang International Trade)	1,800	1,800	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Sino-Thai Duojing (Zhejiang International Trade)	1,238	1,238	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Sinotrans East China	487	487	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Tiantai International Trade (Benniu Port)	581	581	0
PVC subtotal		48,559	48,739	180
Total		48,559	48,739	180