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[Hot Focus] The regional trend of the methanol market under snowfall weather is obvious

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December 18, 2023, 10:06 AM

Lead: Recently, many places in the north have experienced snowfall. Affected by this, transportation in some areas of the site has been restricted, transportation vehicles have been reduced in the market, and freight prices have been continuously increased. The main producing areas have been blocked by the outflow of goods. As supply pressure has increased, manufacturers have reduced prices and shipped goods. However, the main sales areas have been blocked by the inflow of goods, resulting in tight supply. Market prices in the region have increased, and the regionalization trend of the Chinese market is obvious.


Since the beginning of this week, many places in the north have begun to usher in snowfall. Affected by this, some highway sections in Shanxi, Inner Mongolia and other areas have been closed, which has affected the circulation of spot goods in the market to a certain extent. As the snowfall continues, there are fewer transportation vehicles in the market, and freight prices continue to rise. Due to the obstruction of shipments in the northwest region of the main producing area, inventory pressure has become prominent. Some manufacturers have had to give concessions on freight rates and reduce prices to ship. However, due to the impact of transportation, manufacturers 'shipments are not smooth. During the week, the auction situation of some manufacturers was not ideal, with most of the auction being unsold, and the overall market remained weak. Looking back at the main consumer areas such as Shandong and North China, due to the obstruction of the inflow of goods and the impact of the parking and maintenance of equipment in the region, the overall supply pressure in the market is not great. The shipments of manufacturers in the region are good. Currently, factory inventories remain at a low level, and the industry supports prices. The sentiment is obvious, supporting a sharp rise in market prices in the region. However, as prices continue to increase and freight prices continue to increase, some downstream operators hold certain resistance to high-priced sources of goods. The market transaction atmosphere cooled slightly later in the week.

the destination

place of receipt

2023/12/14

2023/12/7

rise and fall

Inner Mongolia North Line

lubei

300-410

230-320

70/90

Daqi

lubei

390-410

260-320

130/90

Inner Mongolia South Line

lubei

310-360

250-290

60/70

Shanxi

lubei

120-180

130-180

-10/0

south line

Lunan

330-350

320-330

10/20

Guanzhong

Southwest Shandong

200/240

170-230

30/10

  In the short term, recently, freight prices have continued to rise due to the impact of snowfall. Some factories in the main producing areas have made concessions on freight rates for shipments. However, due to the impact of transportation, the overall market shipments are not smooth, and the inventory of some companies has gradually increased. However, after entering the next week, as snowfall expectations weaken, transportation congestion on some road sections in China may be alleviated, and the tight flow of goods in the market will also be alleviated. However, considering the current weak demand in the terminal downstream market, On-site operators have limited ability to accept high-priced goods. It is expected that the prices of downstream operators entering the market may be lowered next week. After a week of accumulated warehouses, manufacturers in the main producing area may store certain warehouse demand next week. At that time, market prices in the region may continue to fall. At present, the fundamental performance of methanol itself is still weak, and next week is approaching the settlement date of the long-term contract, and the overall market supply may increase. Under the influence of the increase in tradable sources, it is expected that the Chinese market price may be weak next week, but in the later period, it is necessary to pay close attention to whether the impact of weather on market transportation has weakened and the replenishment of terminal downstream markets.